scholarly journals The impact of reactive mass vaccination campaigns on measles outbreaks in the Katanga region, Democratic Republic of Congo

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
Saki Takahashi ◽  
Joel Hellewell ◽  
Kartini Gadroen ◽  
Isidro Carrion-Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Measles Outbreaks ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Katanga region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been struck by repeated epidemics of measles, with large outbreaks occurring in 2010–13 and 2015. In many of the affected health zones, reactive mass vaccination campaigns were conducted in response to the outbreaks. Here, we attempted to determine how effective the vaccination campaigns in 2015 were in curtailing the ongoing outbreak. We further sought to establish whether the risk of large measles outbreaks in different health zones could have been determined in advance to help prioritise areas for vaccination campaign and speed up the response. In doing so, we first attempted to identify factors that could have been used in 2015 to predict in which health zones the greatest outbreaks would occur. Administrative vaccination coverage was not a good predictor of the size of outbreaks in different health zones. Vaccination coverage derived from surveys, on the other hand, appeared to give more reliable estimates of health zones of low vaccination coverage and, consequently, large outbreaks. On a coarser geographical scale, the provinces most affected in 2015 could be predicted from the outbreak sizes in 2010–13. This, combined with the fact that the vast majority of reported cases were in under-5 year olds, would suggest that there are systematic issues of undervaccination. If this was to continue, outbreaks would be expected to continue to occur in the affected health zones at regular intervals, mostly concentrated in under-5 year olds. We further used a model of measles transmission to estimate the impact of the vaccination campaigns, by first fitting a model to the data including the campaigns and then re-running this without vaccination. We estimated the reactive campaigns to have reduced the size of the overall outbreak by approximately 21,000 (IQR: 16,000–27,000; 95% CI: 8300–38,000) cases. There was considerable heterogeneity in the impact of campaigns, with campaigns started earlier after the start of an outbreak being more impactful. Taken together, these findings suggest that while a strong routine vaccination regime remains the most effective means of measles control, it might be possible to improve the effectiveness of reactive campaigns by considering predictive factors to trigger a more targeted vaccination response.

scholarly journals Real-time projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Daniel Kelly ◽  
Lee Worden ◽  
Rae Wannier ◽  
Nicole A. Hoff ◽  
Patrick Mukadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Outbreak Size

AbstractBackgroundAs of May 27, 2018, 54 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the current outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use.MethodsWe modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model with a negative binomial distribution, using both estimates of reproduction number R declining from supercritical to subcritical derived from past Ebola outbreaks, as well as a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the future course of the outbreak conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using 0%, 44%, and 62% estimates of vaccination coverage. Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize a regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27.ResultsWith the stochastic transmission model, we projected a median outbreak size of 78 EVD cases (95% credible interval: 52, 125.4), 86 cases (95% credible interval: 53, 174.3), and 91 cases (95% credible interval: 52, 843.5), using 62%, 44%, and 0% estimates of vaccination coverage. With the regression model, we estimated a median size of 85.0 cases (95% prediction interval: 53.5, 216.6).ConclusionsThis outbreak has the potential to be the largest outbreak in DRC since 2007. Vaccines are projected to limit outbreak size and duration but are only part of prevention, control, and care strategies.

scholarly journals The impact of an insecticide treated bednet campaign on all-cause child mortality: A geospatial impact evaluation from the Democratic Republic of Congo

PLoS ONE ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. e0212890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie B. Dolan ◽  
Ariel BenYishay ◽  
Karen A. Grépin ◽  
Jeffery C. Tanner ◽  
April D. Kimmel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Contextualizing Landscape-Scale Forest Cover Loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between 2000 and 2015

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Molinario ◽  
Matthew Hansen ◽  
Peter Potapov ◽  
Alexandra Tyukavina ◽  
Stephen Stehman
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Shifting Cultivation ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Forest Loss ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Forest Clearing ◽  
New Forest ◽  
The Impact

Shifting cultivation has been shown to be the primary cause of land use change in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Traditionally, forested and fallow land are rotated in a slash and burn cycle that has created an agricultural mosaic, including secondary forest, known as the rural complex. This study investigates the land use context of new forest clearing (during 2000–2015) in primary forest areas outside of the established rural complex. These new forest clearings occur as either rural complex expansion (RCE) or isolated forest perforations (IFP), with consequent implications on the forest ecosystem and biodiversity habitat. During 2000–2015, subsistence agriculture was the dominant driver of forest clearing for both extension of settled areas and pioneer clearings removed from settled areas. Less than 1% of clearing was directly attributable to land uses such as mining, plantations, and logging, showing that the impact of commercial operations in the DRC is currently dwarfed by a reliance on small-holder shifting cultivation. However, analyzing the landscape context showed that large-scale agroindustry and resource extraction activities lead to increased forest loss and degradation beyond their previously-understood footprints. The worker populations drawn to these areas create communities that rely on shifting cultivation and non-timber forest products (NTFP) for food, energy, and building materials. An estimated 12% of forest loss within the RCE and 9% of the area of IFP was found to be within 5 km of mines, logging, or plantations. Given increasing demographic and commercial pressures on DRC’s forests, it will be crucial to factor in this landscape-level land use change dynamic in land use planning and sustainability-focused governance.

A descriptive perspective on intergenerational sustainability in education and the impact of family lineage in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Bernard Yungu Loleka
Keyword(s):  
Intergenerational Transmission ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Parental Education ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Intergenerational Transmission Of Education

This study investigates how family lineage descent groups influence the intergenerational transmission of education for the cohorts of 1940-1989 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The study applies both transition matrix and intergenerational persistence (IGP) methods, using the father's years of schooling as a proxy for parental education. The findings suggest a pronounced steady persistence in education for the estimated mean regression coefficient over a period of 49 years. Moreover, results by gender indicate that intergenerational persistence in education has significantly decreased for males in recent cohorts but slightly increased for females. Furthermore, findings suggest that intergenerational persistence has been decreasing in matrilineal descent groups in recent cohorts while increasing for the patrilineal descent groups. The study gives a good sense of the relationship between family lineage descent and intergenerational transmission of education in DRC. In addition, it indicates that there is both substantial upward and downward intergenerational education mobility in the country.   Keywords: Cohort analysis, Family lineage descent groups, Intergeneration transmission of education, Inter-generational persistence (IGP) methods, The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Transition matrix.

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