scholarly journals A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Riou ◽  
Chiara Poletto ◽  
Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Arboviral Diseases ◽  
Reporting Rates

AbstractThe recent global dissemination of Chikungunya and Zika has fostered public health concern worldwide. To better understand the drivers of transmission of these two arboviral diseases, we propose a joint analysis of Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the same territories, taking into account the common epidemiological features of the epidemics: transmitted by the same vector, in the same environments, and observed by the same surveillance systems. We analyse eighteen outbreaks in French Polynesia and the French West Indies using a hierarchical time-dependent SIR model accounting for the effect of virus, location and weather on transmission, and based on a disease specific serial interval. We show that Chikungunya and Zika have similar transmission potential in the same territories (transmissibility ratio between Zika and Chikungunya of 1.04 [95% credible interval: 0.97; 1.13]), but that detection and reporting rates were different (around 19% for Zika and 40% for Chikungunya). Temperature variations between 22°C and 29°C did not alter transmission, but increased precipitation showed a dual effect, first reducing transmission after a two-week delay, then increasing it around five weeks later. The present study provides valuable information for risk assessment and introduces a modelling framework for the comparative analysis of arboviral infections that can be extended to other viruses and territories.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Lourenço ◽  
M Maia de Lima ◽  
NR Faria ◽  
A Walker ◽  
MUG Kraemer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The City

AbstractZika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.

Derivation of New Surveillance System for Influenza-like Illness Using Claims Data 2014-2018 in Korea (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
HeeKyung Choi ◽  
Won Suk Choi ◽  
Euna Han
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Claims Data ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Utilization Review ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
System P ◽  
National Patient ◽  
Antitussive Agents

BACKGROUND Influenza is an important public health concern. A national surveillance system that easily and rapidly detects influenza epidemics is lacking. OBJECTIVE We assumed that the rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) related-claims is similar to the current ILI surveillance system. METHODS We used the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Patient Samples (HIRA-NPS), 2014-2018. We defined ILI-related claims as outpatient claims that contain both antipyretic and antitussive agents and calculated the weekly rate of ILI-related claims. We compared ILI-related claims and weekly ILI rates from clinical sentinel surveillance data. RESULTS We observed a strong correlation between the two surveillance systems each season. The absolute thresholds for the four-years were 84.64 and 86.19 cases claims per 1,000 claims for claims data and 12.27 and 16.82 per 1,000 patients for sentinel data (Figure 5). Both the claims and sentinel data surpassed the epidemic thresholds each season. The peak epidemic in the claims data was reached one to two weeks later than in the sentinel data. The epidemic patterns were more similar in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons than the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons. CONCLUSIONS Based on hospital reports, ILI-related claims rates were similar to the ILI surveillance system. ILI claims data can be loaded to a drug utilization review system in Korea to make an influenza surveillance system.

scholarly journals Estimating true incidence of O157 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producingEscherichia coliillness in Germany based on notification data of haemolytic uraemic syndrome

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (15) ◽  
pp. 3305-3315 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KUEHNE ◽  
M. BOUWKNEGT ◽  
A. HAVELAAR ◽  
A. GILSDORF ◽  
P. HOYER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Shiga Toxin ◽  
Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Annual Incidence ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
True Incidence ◽  
Notification Data

SUMMARYShiga toxin-producingEscherichia coli(STEC) is an important cause of gastroenteritis (GE) and haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence of STEC illness is largely underestimated in notification data, particularly of serogroups other than O157 (‘non-O157’). Using HUS national notification data (2008–2012, excluding 2011), we modelled true annual incidence of STEC illness in Germany separately for O157 and non-O157 STEC, taking into account the groups’ different probabilities of causing bloody diarrhoea and HUS, and the resulting difference in their under-ascertainment. Uncertainty of input parameters was evaluated by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations. Median annual incidence (per 100 000 population) of STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE was estimated at 0·11 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·08-0·20], and 35 (95% CrI 12-145), respectively. German notification data underestimated STEC-associated HUS and STEC-GE incidences by factors of 1·8 and 32·3, respectively. Non-O157 STEC accounted for 81% of all STEC-GE, 51% of all bloody STEC-GE and 32% of all STEC-associated HUS cases. Non-O157 serogroups dominate incidence of STEC-GE and contribute significantly to STEC-associated HUS in Germany. This might apply to many other countries considering European surveillance data on HUS. Non-O157 STEC should be considered in parallel with STEC O157 when searching aetiology in patients with GE or HUS, and accounted for in modern surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Spatial-time Visualization of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Urban Area: Informing Health Policy and Practice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Firouraghi ◽  
Sayyed Mostafa Mostafavi ◽  
Amene Raouf-Rahmati ◽  
Alireza Mohammadi ◽  
Reza Saemi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Risk Areas

Abstract Background:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important public health concern worldwide. Iran is among the most CL-affected countries, being listed as one of the first six endemic countries in the world. In order to develop targeted interventions, we performed a spatial-time visualization of CL cases in an urban area to identify high-risk and low-risk areas during 2016-2019.Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted in the city of Mashhad. Patient data were gathered from Mashhad health centers. All cases (n=2425) were diagnosed in two stages; the initial diagnosis was based on clinical findings. Subsequently, clinical manifestation was confirmed by parasitological tests. The data were aggregated at the neighborhood and district levels and smoothed CL incidence rates per 100,000 individuals were calculated using the spatial empirical Bayesian approach. Furthermore, we used the Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic to identify clusters and outliers of CL distribution during 2016-2019 in Mashhad. Results:The overall incidence rates decreased from 34.6 per 100,000 in 2016 to 19.9 per 100,000 individuals in 2019. Both cluster analyses by crude incidence rate and smoothed incidence rate identified high-risk areas in southwestern Mashhad over the study period. Furthermore, the analyses revealed low-risk areas in northeastern Mashhad over the same 3-year period.Conclusions:The southwestern area of Mashhad had the highest CL incidence rates. This piece of information might be of value to design tailored interventions such as running effective resource allocation models, informed control plans and implementation of efficient surveillance systems. Furthermore, this study generates new hypotheses to test potential relationships between socio-economic and environmental risk factors and incidence of CL in areas with higher associated risks.

scholarly journals An Algerian perspective on non-typhoidal Salmonella infection

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (08) ◽  
pp. 583-590
Author(s):  
Bilal Djeghout ◽  
Ammar Ayachi ◽  
Bianca Paglietti ◽  
Gemma C. Langridge ◽  
Salvatore Rubino
Keyword(s):  
Antimicrobial Treatment ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Salmonella Infections ◽  
Food Animal ◽  
Food Borne ◽  
And Control

Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) represents a leading cause of food-borne disease worldwide. It is a global public health concern: more than 94 million cases and 115,000 deaths are reported every year, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries. The prevalence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella strains is another major health concern which affects antimicrobial treatment, as many studies report that infections caused by MDR strains are more severe than those caused by susceptible strains. In Algeria, NTS represent one of the primary causes of salmonellosis in both humans and food animal production, especially poultry. Epidemiological surveillance systems and monitoring programs for Salmonella infections are essential requirements to provide data useful for the effective detection and control of Salmonella outbreaks. The present review will supply a perspective on NTS infection, pathogenesis and antimicrobial resistance with a focus on the epidemiology of salmonellosis in Algeria.

scholarly journals Analysis of the interventions adopted due to the COVID-19 on ARI morbility for Colombia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Quijano-Angarita ◽  
Oscar Espinosa ◽  
Marcela M Mercado-Reyes ◽  
Diana Walteros ◽  
Diana Carolina Malo
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
Official Declaration

Acute Respiratory Infections are among the leading causes of death globally, particularly in developing countries, and are highly correlated with the quality of health and surveillance systems and effective early interventions in high-risk age groups. According to the World Health Organization, about four million people die each year from mostly preventable respiratory tract infections, making it a public health concern. The official declaration of a pandemic in March 2020 due to the Sars-CoV-2 virus coincided with the influenza season in Colombia and with environmental alerts about low air quality that increase its incidence. The objective of this document is the application of a flexible model for the identification of the pattern and monitoring of ARI morbility for Colombia by age group that shows atypical patterns in the reported series for 5 departments and that coincide with the decisions implemented to contain the COVID-19

scholarly journals Risks and Challenges of Arboviral Diseases in Sudan: The Urgent Need for Actions

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayman Ahmed ◽  
Isabelle Dietrich ◽  
A. Desiree LaBeaud ◽  
Steve W. Lindsay ◽  
Ahmed Musa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Viral Genome ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Research Capacity ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Arboviral Diseases ◽  
And Control

The risk of emergence and/or re-emergence of arthropod-borne viral (arboviral) infections is rapidly growing worldwide, particularly in Africa. The burden of arboviral infections and diseases is not well scrutinized because of the inefficient surveillance systems in endemic countries. Furthermore, the health systems are fully occupied by the burden of other co-existing febrile illnesses, especially malaria. In this review we summarize the epidemiology and risk factors associated with the major human arboviral diseases and highlight the gap in knowledge, research, and control in Sudan. Published data in English up to March 2019 were reviewed and are discussed to identify the risks and challenges for the control of arboviruses in the country. In addition, the lack of suitable diagnostic tools such as viral genome sequencing, and the urgent need for establishing a genomic database of the circulating viruses and potential sources of entry are discussed. Moreover, the research and healthcare gaps and global health threats are analyzed, and suggestions for developing strategic health policy for the prevention and control of arboviruses with focus on building the local diagnostic and research capacity and establishing an early warning surveillance system for the early detection and containment of arboviral epidemics are offered.

scholarly journals Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (157) ◽  
pp. 20190317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Household Structure ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Childhood Infections ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Family Setting ◽  
The Impact

The spread of infectious diseases is intimately linked with the strength and type of contact between individuals. Multiple observational and modelling studies have highlighted the importance of two forms of social mixing: age structure, where the likelihood of interaction between two individuals is determined by their ages; and household structure, which recognizes the much stronger contacts and hence transmission potential within the family setting. Age structure has been ubiquitous in predictive models of both endemic and epidemic infections, in part due to the ease of assessing someone’s age. By contrast, although household structure is potentially the dominant heterogeneity, it has received less attention, in part due to an absence of the necessary methodology. Here, we develop the modelling framework necessary to predict the behaviour of endemic infections (which necessitates capturing demographic processes) in populations that possess both household and age structure. We compare two childhood infections, with measles-like and mumps-like parameters, and two populations with UK-like and Kenya-like characteristics, which allows us to disentangle the impact of epidemiology and demography. For this high-dimensional model, we predict complex nonlinear dynamics, where the dynamics of within-household outbreaks are tempered by historical waves of infection and the immunity of older individuals.

scholarly journals Artificial Intelligence-based tools to control healthcare associated infections: where do we stand

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Scardoni ◽  
F Balzarini ◽  
F Cabitza ◽  
A Odone
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Performance Outcomes ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Healthcare Associated Infections ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Practice Performance ◽  
Healthcare Associated

Abstract Background Control of Healthcare associated infections (HAI) is a key public health concern in Europe. Current HAI surveillance systems are based on manual medical records review, vulnerable to misclassification and expensive. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers great potential to public health action and, specifically, to HAI control. Still, scant evidence is available on both its practice and impact. Methods As part of a broader multidisciplinary project, we conducted a systematic review to retrieve, pool and critically apprize all the available evidence on practice, performance and impact of AI-based HAI control programmes. We followed PRISMA guidelines and searched the Medline and Embase databases for relevant studies. Included studies were stratified by HAI type and outcomes of interest, including all possible performance measures, clinical, organizational and economic outcomes. Results We screened 2873 records, resulting in 27 papers included in the review. Studies were carried out in 9 countries, the majority in the US (56%), 18.5% in EU countries, 25.9% published in 2018. Two thirds of studies focused on selected types of infections. Study designs were very diverse and performance observed for HAI detection were very heterogeneous, precluding pooled calculation of summary diagnostic accuracy estimates in most instances, but generally higher than non AI-based models. The highest performance outcomes were Specificity and Negative Predictive Value. Overall performance measures of AI algorithms were: sensitivity range 19%-92%, specificity range 64%-96%, accuracy 70.2%-96.1%. Conclusions Use of AI algorithms for HAI surveillance of HAI has increased reliability compared to traditional surveillance or to automated surveillance models. With ongoing improvements in information technology, implementation of AI models will improve the quality and capacity of surveillance will support hospital HAI surveillance. Key messages Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer great potential to healthcare associated infections (HAI) control. Preliminary evidence show AI-based models have perform better than manual or automated models for HAIs detection.

scholarly journals A SENSOR NETWORK BASED ON IOT AND ISTSOS TO ANALYSE THE CATCH BASIN ENVIRONMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE <i>AE. ALBOPICTUS</i> EXPANSION IN SWITZERLAND

2021 ◽  
Vol XLVI-4/W2-2021 ◽  
pp. 183-188
Author(s):  
D. Strigaro ◽  
M. Cannata ◽  
D. Ravasi ◽  
E. Flacio ◽  
M. Antonovic
Keyword(s):  
Sensor Network ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Diapausing Eggs ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Alps

Abstract. The continuous expansion of invasive Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, combined to its ability to transmit arboviruses (e.g. dengue, chikungunya) is raising major public health concern in Europe. In Switzerland, the mosquito is firmly established in most urban areas of the Canton of Ticino, south of the Alps, and there is a real risk that it will colonize also urban areas north of the Alps in the next years. The spatial distribution and colonization of new areas by Ae. albopictus depends on several environmental parameters, such as winter and summer temperatures, and precipitation patterns. A key factor for Ae. albopictus to establish at higher latitudes is the capability to develop cold-tolerant overwintering diapausing eggs under specific environmental conditions. Weather-driven abundance models are used to map the areas of potential distribution and to predict temporal dynamics of Ae. albopictus and the transmission potential of arboviruses. This contribution presents the designed system that integrates low-cost and on-line IoT sensors to monitor temperature, humidity and light with istSOS an OGC Sensor Observation Service server implementation with a user friendly interface and rich feature collection to easily manage this sensor network and distribute data in a standard way (www.istsos.org).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document