scholarly journals Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. K. Hamilton ◽  
M. Z. Hussain ◽  
C. Lowrie ◽  
B. Basso ◽  
G. P. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
The Past ◽  
Perennial Vegetation ◽  
The Face

AbstractIn temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and therefore catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 y for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row-crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14°C. Despite these changes in land use, precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment-scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible, but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50-y period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 y.

scholarly journals The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Mariele Evers ◽  
Britta Höllermann ◽  
Stefanie Steinbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

scholarly journals Advances in Observation and Estimation of Land Use Impacts on Climate Changes: Improved Data, Upgraded Models, and Case Studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. Singh ◽  
Chenchen Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Land Use Impacts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Cover Pattern

Global land use and land cover pattern has greatly changed in the past 50 years, which exerts direct or indirect influence on the climate change remarkably at both regional and global scales. Therefore, observing and estimating the land use impacts on surface climate is essential and has been continuously promoted by researchers. This paper explores the advancement in the models, data, and application for observing and estimating the land use impacts on surface climate and points out further research needs and priorities, which hopefully will provide some references for related studies.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

Hydrological regime, water availability and land use/land cover change impact on the water balance in a large agriculture basin in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 103224
Author(s):  
Tárcio Rocha Lopes ◽  
Cornélio Alberto Zolin ◽  
Rafael Mingoti ◽  
Laurimar Gonçalves Vendrusculo ◽  
Frederico Terra de Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Geofrey Gabiri ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Constanze Leemhuis ◽  
Roderick van der Linden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Inland Valley ◽  
Headwater Catchment

The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

scholarly journals Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid Hydrologic Modeling and Basin Planning

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Spruce ◽  
John Bolten ◽  
Raghavan Srinivasan ◽  
Venkat Lakshmi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Reference Data ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Mekong Basin ◽  
Lower Mekong Basin

This paper discusses research methodology to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) for basin planning, using both MODIS and Landsat satellite data. The 2010 MODIS MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data was processed into monthly NDVI maps with the Time Series Product Tool software package and then used to classify regionally common forest and agricultural LULC types. Dry season circa 2010 Landsat top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics were classified to map locally common LULC types. Unsupervised ISODATA clustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. MODIS and Landsat classifications were combined with GIS methods to derive final 250-m LULC maps for Sub-basins (SBs) 1–8 of the LMB. The SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes was assessed for accuracy. This assessment compared random locations for sampled types on the SB 7 LULC map to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs, MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data, and Mekong River Commission data (e.g., crop calendars). The SB 7 LULC map showed an overall agreement to reference data of ~81%. By grouping three deciduous forest classes into one, the overall agreement improved to ~87%. The project enabled updated regional LULC maps that included more detailed agriculture LULC types. LULC maps were supplied to project partners to improve use of Soil and Water Assessment Tool for modeling hydrology and water use, plus enhance LMB water and disaster management in a region vulnerable to flooding, droughts, and anthropogenic change as part of basin planning and assessment.

scholarly journals Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahel Hamad ◽  
Heiko Balzter ◽  
Kamal Kolo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Trend

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

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