scholarly journals Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahel Hamad ◽  
Heiko Balzter ◽  
Kamal Kolo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Trend

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

scholarly journals Monitoring and Predicting Spatio-Temporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Zaria City, Nigeria, through an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model (CA-Markov)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10452
Author(s):  
Auwalu Faisal Koko ◽  
Wu Yue ◽  
Ghali Abdullahi Abubakar ◽  
Roknisadeh Hamed ◽  
Akram Ahmed Noman Alabsi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Barren Land ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Monitoring land use/land cover (LULC) change dynamics plays a crucial role in formulating strategies and policies for the effective planning and sustainable development of rapidly growing cities. Therefore, this study sought to integrate the cellular automata and Markov chain model using remotely sensed data and geographical information system (GIS) techniques to monitor, map, and detect the spatio-temporal LULC change in Zaria city, Nigeria. Multi-temporal satellite images of 1990, 2005, and 2020 were pre-processed, geo-referenced, and mapped using the supervised maximum likelihood classification to examine the city’s historical land cover (1990–2020). Subsequently, an integrated cellular automata (CA)–Markov model was utilized to model, validate, and simulate the future LULC scenario using the land change modeler (LCM) of IDRISI-TerrSet software. The change detection results revealed an expansion in built-up areas and vegetation of 65.88% and 28.95%, respectively, resulting in barren land losing 63.06% over the last three decades. The predicted LULC maps of 2035 and 2050 indicate that these patterns of barren land changing into built-up areas and vegetation will continue over the next 30 years due to urban growth, reforestation, and development of agricultural activities. These results establish past and future LULC trends and provide crucial data useful for planning and sustainable land use management.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES ON RUNOFF PREDICTION IN OGBESE RIVER WATERSHED

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-308
Author(s):  
Obinna Obiora-Okeke
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Lulc Changes

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Ogbese watershed due to urbanization implies increased areas of low infiltration. This results to higher flow rates downstream the watershed. This study estimates the changes in peak flow rates at the watershed’s outlet for present and future LULC. Rainfall-runoff simulation was achieved with Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) version 4.2 while future LULC was projected with Markov Chain model. Rainfall inputs to the hydrologic model were obtained from intensity-duration-frequency curves for Ondo state. Landsat 7, Enhanced Thematic mapper plus (ETM+) image and Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) with path 190 and row 2 were used to generate LULC images for the years 2002, 2015 and 2019. Six LULC classes were extracted as follows: built up area, bare surface, vegetation, wetland, rock outcrop and waterbody.  Future LULC in year 2025 and 2029 were projected with Markov Chain model. The model prediction was verified with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE). NSE value of 0.79 was calculated indicating LULC changes in the watershed was Markovian. Results show that built up area cover in 2019 is projected to increase by 26.1% in 2024 and 39.9% in 2029 and wetland is projected to decreased by 1.2% in 2024 and 2.3% by 2029. Runoff peaks for these LULC projections indicate increase by 0.24% in 2024 and 1.19% in 2029 at the watershed’s outlets for 100-year return period rainfall.

scholarly journals Application of Markov Chain Model and ArcGIS in Land Use Projection of Ala River Catchment, Akure, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-38
Author(s):  
P.A. Adegbola ◽  
J.R. Adewumi ◽  
O.A. Obiora-Okeke
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Negative Consequences

Increase land use change is one of the consequences of rapid population growth of cities in developing countries with its negative consequences on the environment. This study generates previous and present land use of Ala watershed and project the future land use using Markov chain model and ArcGIS software (version 10.2.1). Landsat 7, Enhanced Thematic mapper plus (ETM+) image and Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) with path 190 and row 2 used to generate land use (LU) and land cover (LC) images for the years 2000, 2010 and 2019. Six LU/LC classes were considered as follows: developed area (DA), open soil (OS), grass surface (GS), light forest (LF), wetland (WL) and hard rock (HR). Markov chain analysis was used in predicting LU/LC types in the watershed for the years 2029 and 2039. The veracity of the model was tested with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE) and Percent Bias methods. The model results show that the study area is growing rapidly particularly in the recent time. This urban expansion results in significant decrease of WL coverage areas and the significant increase of DA. This implies reduction in the available land for dry season farming and incessant flood occurrence. Keywords: Land cover, land use change, Markov chain, ArcGIS, watershed, urbanization

scholarly journals Monitoring the Spatial Variation of Aerosol Optical Depth and Its Correlation with Land Use/Land Cover in Wuhan, China: A Perspective of Urban Planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1132
Author(s):  
Qijiao Xie ◽  
Qi Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Impact

Aerosols significantly affect environmental conditions, air quality, and public health locally, regionally, and globally. Examining the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) on aerosol optical depth (AOD) helps to understand how human activities influence air quality and develop suitable solutions. The Landsat 8 image and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products in summer in 2018 were used in LULC classification and AOD retrieval in this study. Spatial statistics and correlation analysis about the relationship between LULC and AOD were performed to examine the impact of LULC on AOD in summer in Wuhan, China. Results indicate that the AOD distribution expressed an obvious “basin effect” in urban development areas: higher AOD values concentrated in water bodies with lower terrain, which were surrounded by the high buildings or mountains with lower AOD values. The AOD values were negatively correlated with the vegetated areas while positively correlated to water bodies and construction lands. The impact of LULC on AOD varied with different contexts in all cases, showing a “context effect”. The regression correlations among the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and AOD in given landscape contexts were much stronger than those throughout the whole study area. These findings provide sound evidence for urban planning, land use management and air quality improvement.

scholarly journals ALTERAÇÃO NA COBERTURA FLORESTAL DA REGIÃO NOROESTE DA AMAZÔNIA MATOGROSSENSE

Nativa ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Luani Rosa de Oliveira Piva ◽  
Rorai Pereira Martins Neto
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Landsat 8 Oli ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
The Past ◽  
Landsat 5 Tm

Nos últimos anos, a intensificação das atividades antrópicas modificadoras da cobertura vegetal do solo em território brasileiro vem ocorrendo em larga escala. Para fins de monitoramento das alterações da cobertura florestal, as técnicas de Sensoriamento Remoto da vegetação são ferramentas imprescindíveis, principalmente em áreas extensas e de difícil acesso, como é o caso da Amazônia brasileira. Neste sentido, objetivou-se com este trabalho identificar as mudanças no uso e cobertura do solo no período de 20 anos nos municípios de Aripuanã e Rondolândia, Noroeste do Mato Grosso, visando quantificar as áreas efetivas que sofreram alterações. Para tal, foram utilizadas técnicas de classificação digital de imagens Landsat 5 TM e Landsat 8 OLI em três diferentes datas (1995, 2005 e 2015) e, posteriormente, realizada a detecção de mudanças para o uso e cobertura do solo. A classificação digital apresentou resultados excelentes, com índice Kappa acima de 0,80 para os mapas gerados, indicando ser uma ferramenta potencial para o uso e cobertura do solo. Os resultados denotaram uma conversão de áreas florestais principalmente para atividades antrópicas agrícolas, na ordem de 472 km², o que representa uma perda de 1,3% de superfície de floresta amazônica na região de estudo.Palavras-chave: conversão de áreas florestais; uso e cobertura do solo; classificação digital; análise multitemporal. CHANGE IN FOREST COVER OF THE NORTHWEST REGION OF AMAZON IN MATO GROSSO STATE ABSTRACT: In the past few years, the intensification of anthropic activities that modify the soil-vegetation cover in Brazil’s land has been occurring on a large scale. To monitor the forest cover changes, the techniques of Remote Sensing of vegetation are essential tools, especially in large areas and with difficult access, as is the case of the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this work was to identify the changes in land use and land cover, over the past 20 years, in the municipalities of Aripuanã and Rondolândia, Northwest of Mato Grosso State, in order to quantify the effective altered areas. Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI digital classification images techniques were used in three different dates (1995, 2005 and 2015) and, later, the detection to the land use and land cover changes. The digital classification showed excellent results, with kappa index above 0.80 for the generated maps, indicating the digital classification as a potential tool for land use and land cover. Results reflect the conversion of forest areas mainly for agricultural activities, in the order of 472 km², representing a loss of 1.3% of Amazon forest surface in the study region.Keywords: forest conversion; land use and land cover; digital classification; multitemporal analysis.

scholarly journals Hydrological Responses to Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Fincha’a Watershed, Ethiopia

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 916
Author(s):  
Urgessa Kenea ◽  
Dereje Adeba ◽  
Motuma Shiferaw Regasa ◽  
Michael Nones
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Basin Scale

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are highly pronounced in African countries, as they are characterized by an agriculture-based economy and a rapidly growing population. Understanding how land use/cover changes (LULCC) influence watershed hydrology will enable local governments and policymakers to formulate and implement effective and appropriate response strategies to minimize the undesirable effects of future land use/cover change or modification and sustain the local socio-economic situation. The hydrological response of the Ethiopia Fincha’a watershed to LULCC that happened during 25 years was investigated, comparing the situation in three reference years: 1994, 2004, and 2018. The information was derived from Landsat sensors, respectively Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM, and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS. The various LULC classes were derived via ArcGIS using a supervised classification system, and the accuracy assessment was done using confusion matrixes. For all the years investigated, the overall accuracies and the kappa coefficients were higher than 80%, with 2018 as the more accurate year. The analysis of LULCC revealed that forest decreased by 20.0% between the years 1994–2004, and it decreased by 11.8% in the following period 2004–2018. Such decline in areas covered by forest is correlated to an expansion of cultivated land by 16.4% and 10.81%, respectively. After having evaluated the LULCC at the basin scale, the watershed was divided into 18 sub-watersheds, which contained 176 hydrologic response units (HRUs), having a specific LULC. Accounting for such a detailed subdivision of the Fincha’a watershed, the SWAT model was firstly calibrated and validated on past data, and then applied to infer information on the hydrological response of each HRU on LULCC. The modelling results pointed out a general increase of average water flow, both during dry and wet periods, as a consequence of a shift of land coverage from forest and grass towards settlements and build-up areas. The present analysis pointed out the need of accounting for past and future LULCC in modelling the hydrological responses of rivers at the watershed scale.

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