The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
Jacob Werksman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Collective Performance ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Legal Character

This article assesses the legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal. This article begins with a textual analysis of the 1.5°C goal. It considers whether the goal creates individual or collective obligations for Parties, and whether it is sufficiently specific to enable the tracking of individual or collective performance. Next, it assesses the operational relevance of the 1.5°C temperature goal, by considering the role it will play in the Paris Agreement's institutions and procedures. To the extent that the goal plays a role, and implies global limits on greenhouse gas emissions, this article observes that it could have implications for the sharing of the effort between Parties. Thus, this article considers the relevance of equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances, to understanding how the 1.5°C goal could be reached. In this context, this article explores whether the 1.5°C goal could play a role in the Paris Agreement's ‘ambition cycle’. Finally, this article asks whether there are any legal or political implications, individually or collectively under the Paris Agreement, should the Parties fail to achieve the 1.5°C goal. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20180066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Benito Muller ◽  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
25Th Anniversary ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The University

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160445 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fuglestvedt ◽  
J. Rogelj ◽  
R. J. Millar ◽  
M. Allen ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Gas Balance

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP 100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP 100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO 2 ) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Eelco J. Rohling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Is Implementation

This chapter outlines the challenge facing us. The Paris Agreement sets a target maximum of 2°C global warming and a preferred limit of 1.5°C. Yet, the subsequent combined national pledges for emission reduction suffice only for limiting warming to roughly 3°C. And because most nations are falling considerably short of meeting their pledges, even greater warming may become locked in. Something more drastic and wide-ranging is needed: a multi-pronged strategy. These different prongs to the climate-change solution are introduced in this chapter and explored one by one in the following chapters. First is rapid, massive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Second is implementation of ways to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Third may be increasing the reflectivity of Earth to incoming sunlight, to cool certain places down more rapidly. In addition, we need to protect ourselves from climate-change impacts that have already become inevitable.

scholarly journals Changing International Law for a Changing Climate

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 279-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Esty ◽  
Dena P. Adler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
National Governments

After more than two decades of inadequate international efforts to address climate change resulting from rising greenhouse gas emissions, the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement shifted gears. That agreement advances a “bottom-up” model of global cooperation that requires action commitments from all national governments and acknowledges the important role that cities, states, provinces, and businesses must play in delivering deep decarbonization. Given the limited control that presidents and prime ministers have over many of the policies and choices that determine their countries’ carbon footprints, the Paris Agreement missed an opportunity to formally recognize the climate change action commitments of mayors, governors, and premiers. These subnational officials often have authorities complementary to national governments, particularly in federal systems (including the United States, China, Canada, and Australia). They therefore possess significant independent capacities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through their economic development strategies, building codes, zoning rules and practices, public transportation investments, and other policies. Likewise, the world community missed an opportunity to formally recognize the commitments of companies to successful implementation of the Paris Agreement and thereby to highlight the wide range of decisions that business leaders make that significantly affect greenhouse gas emissions.

Vulnerable Regions in a Changing Climate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Leichenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Planetary Systems ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Changing Climate

Economic geographers have made important contributions to the understanding of many facets of climate change, yet the field has had relatively limited engagement with the study of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation. Instead, most work on the economic consequences of climate disruption is being done by researchers in other disciplines or in other subfields of geography. This chapter argues that broad recognition of humanity’s role in shaping Earth’s planetary systems, combined with new hope and opportunity engendered by the 2015 Paris Agreement on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, present a pivotal moment for economic geographers to take a more central role in the study of climate change and in broader, interdisciplinary conversations about the meaning and implications of the Anthropocene.

scholarly journals Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. M. Verchick
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Warming World

Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided—what Parties call ‘loss and damage’. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

An eu Law Perspective on the Paris Agreement: Will the eu Consider Strengthening its Mitigation Effort?

Climate Law ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 182-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjan Peeters
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mitigation Effort ◽  
The Eu

The European Union is the only party to the unfccc that is a regional organization. The European Union’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, submitted on behalf of itself and its member states, contains a pledge to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, in pursuit of the general objective to keep the global average temperature increase below 2°C. Given, however, that the Paris Agreement aims not only to hold the increase ‘well below’ 2°C, but also to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit the increase to 1.5°C, one wonders whether the outcome of cop 21 may lead the European Union to a reconsideration—with possibly a strengthening—of the mitigation effort proposed in its indc.

scholarly journals Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Warming World

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

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