scholarly journals Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160445 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fuglestvedt ◽  
J. Rogelj ◽  
R. J. Millar ◽  
M. Allen ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Gas Balance

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP 100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP 100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO 2 ) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Special Report ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Goal

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>

scholarly journals The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20180066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Benito Muller ◽  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
25Th Anniversary ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The University

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
Jacob Werksman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Collective Performance ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Legal Character

This article assesses the legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal. This article begins with a textual analysis of the 1.5°C goal. It considers whether the goal creates individual or collective obligations for Parties, and whether it is sufficiently specific to enable the tracking of individual or collective performance. Next, it assesses the operational relevance of the 1.5°C temperature goal, by considering the role it will play in the Paris Agreement's institutions and procedures. To the extent that the goal plays a role, and implies global limits on greenhouse gas emissions, this article observes that it could have implications for the sharing of the effort between Parties. Thus, this article considers the relevance of equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances, to understanding how the 1.5°C goal could be reached. In this context, this article explores whether the 1.5°C goal could play a role in the Paris Agreement's ‘ambition cycle’. Finally, this article asks whether there are any legal or political implications, individually or collectively under the Paris Agreement, should the Parties fail to achieve the 1.5°C goal. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

Long term effects of fire on the soil greenhouse gas balance of an old-growth temperate rainforest

2021 ◽  
Vol 755 ◽  
pp. 142442
Author(s):  
Jorge F. Perez-Quezada ◽  
Paul Urrutia ◽  
Javiera Olivares-Rojas ◽  
Ana Meijide ◽  
Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Temperate Rainforest ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Gas Balance

scholarly journals Wave of net zero greenhouse gas emission targets opens window on meeting the Paris Agreement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niklas Höhne ◽  
Matthew Gidden ◽  
Michel Elzen ◽  
Frederic Hans ◽  
Claire Fyson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Emissions

Abstract The wave of national net zero CO2 and greenhouse gas emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.1–2.4°C by 2100 and could bring achievement of the Paris Agreement within reach. 127 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, which together cover 63% of global emissions. Together, these net zero targets could significantly lower projected global warming compared to currently implemented policies (2.9 to 3.2°C) or to the pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.6 to 2.9°C).

scholarly journals The growing season greenhouse gas balance of a continental tundra site in the Indigirka lowlands, NE Siberia

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 985-1003 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. van der Molen ◽  
J. van Huissteden ◽  
F. J. W. Parmentier ◽  
A. M. R. Petrescu ◽  
A. J. Dolman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Light Limitation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Area Index ◽  
North East ◽  
Methane Fluxes ◽  
Gas Balance

Abstract. Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes were measured at a tundra site near Chokurdakh, in the lowlands of the Indigirka river in north-east Siberia. This site is one of the few stations on Russian tundra and it is different from most other tundra flux stations in its continentality. A suite of methods was applied to determine the fluxes of NEE, GPP, Reco and methane, including eddy covariance, chambers and leaf cuvettes. Net carbon dioxide fluxes were high compared with other tundra sites, with NEE=−92 g C m−2 yr−1, which is composed of an Reco=+141 g C m−2 yr−1 and GPP=−232 g C m−2 yr−1. This large carbon dioxide sink may be explained by the continental climate, that is reflected in low winter soil temperatures (−14°C), reducing the respiration rates, and short, relatively warm summers, stimulating high photosynthesis rates. Interannual variability in GPP was dominated by the frequency of light limitation (Rg<200 W m−2), whereas Reco depends most directly on soil temperature and time in the growing season, which serves as a proxy of the combined effects of active layer depth, leaf area index, soil moisture and substrate availability. The methane flux, in units of global warming potential, was +28 g C-CO2e m−2 yr−1, so that the greenhouse gas balance was −64 g C-CO2e m−2 yr−1. Methane fluxes depended only slightly on soil temperature and were highly sensitive to hydrological conditions and vegetation composition.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Balance for a Forest Company Operating in Northeast North America

2013 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan E. Cameron ◽  
Chris R. Hennigar ◽  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Greg W. Adams ◽  
Thom A. Erdle
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Gas Balance

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

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