scholarly journals Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia I. Seneviratne ◽  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Benoit P. Guillod ◽  
Annette L. Hirsch ◽  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Warming World

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 519-548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir AghaKouchak ◽  
Felicia Chiang ◽  
Laurie S. Huning ◽  
Charlotte A. Love ◽  
Iman Mallakpour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Aging Infrastructure ◽  
Climate Hazards ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Warming World

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As the world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. The impacts of extreme events will also be more severe due to the increased exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (aging infrastructure) of human settlements. Climate models attribute part of the projected increases in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters to anthropogenic emissions and changes in land use and land cover. Here, we review the impacts, historical and projected changes,and theoretical research gaps of key extreme events (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, and flooding). We also highlight the need to improve our understanding of the dependence between individual and interrelated climate extremes because anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of not only individual climate extremes but also compound (co-occurring) and cascading hazards. ▪  Climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world. ▪  Anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of compound and cascading hazards. ▪  We need to improve our understanding of causes and drivers of compound and cascading hazards.

scholarly journals Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Analyses ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. This article extends a previous study (Seneviratne et al., 2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global temperature targets, such as the 2 degree and 1.5 degree limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Quantifying Consequences of Land Use and Rainfall Changes on Maximum Flood Peak in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 931-932 ◽  
pp. 791-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai ◽  
Winai Sri-Amporn ◽  
Chadchai Pruthong
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Impacts ◽  
Projected Changes

When the severity of exposure to flood is being addressed, several related concerns have always been raised to draw attention on a growing flood threat. In relation to this, the extraordinary insight into the seriousness of land use and rainfall changes that could greatly exacerbate flood impacts would need to be highlighted. The importance of the aforementioned issue lies in the main objective of quantifying consequences of how changes in land use and rainfall affect the hydrological processes in the lower Nam Phong River Basin. The use of Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) simulation model would add robustness and predictability to the overall results. It was apparent from the calibration and validation processes that there are reasonably close agreement between observed and simulated discharges at Ban Nong Hin gauging station (E.22A), with good correlation coefficients (ENS= 0.78, r2= 0.81 and ENS= 0.77, r2= 0.82, respectively). Thereafter, different what-if scenarios were conducted to determine impacts of land use changes in 2001, 2011 and 2057 and extreme rainfall with different return periods of 10-, 50-and 100-years on hydrological responses. A slight increase in peak flows were equal to 4% and 1%, as a consequence of the change from 2001 land use conditions to 2011 and 2057, respectively. Conversely, a large increase in peak discharges was expected to be 13%, 20% and 27% when the 2001 rainfall event was adjusted to the projected changes in rainfall corresponding to 10-, 50-and 100-year return periods, respectively. In brief, insignificant relation between hydrological response and land use changes was obviously found, but it was of particular significance due to changes in rainfall extremes. Taken together, obtained findings can then be used as a baseline for water resources planning, development and management, as well as flood management perspective.

Methodology for risk assessment of flash flood events due to climate and land-use changes: application to the Llobregat basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Velasco ◽  
À. Cabello ◽  
I. Escaler ◽  
J. I. Barredo ◽  
A. Barrera-Escoda
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Seventh Framework Programme ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Framework Programme Project ◽  
Llobregat River

Global change, including climate, land-use and socio-economic changes, is expected to increase the stress on the entire water cycle. In the Mediterranean region, extreme events are likely to increase due to climate change. This work, framed in the EC Seventh Framework Programme project IMPRINTS, presents a methodology to obtain future flood risk maps using climate and land-use scenarios, identifying the new potential risk zones. The implementation of this methodology is applied to the Llobregat river basin case study. Two different special report on emission scenarios are used, and although the uncertainties are high, the results obtained are coincident: an increase of flood risk is observed in the whole Low Llobregat area. The climate changes affect the basin globally, increasing the risk homogeneously within the area considered. On the other hand, land-use changes represent urban growth in the floodplains, and hence, local risk increases are found in these spots.

scholarly journals Attribution of projected changes in US ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations to global changes

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 15131-15163 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Avise ◽  
J. Chen ◽  
B. Lamb ◽  
C. Wiedinmyer ◽  
A. Guenther ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
Regional Air Quality ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM) output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4) global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM). For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv) on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv). Changes in average 24-h (A24-h) PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3), while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2.5 concentrations by −0.9 μg m−3, but this reduction is more than tripled in the Southeastern US due to increased precipitation and wet deposition.

scholarly journals Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Rosenstock ◽  
Carolina Toranza ◽  
Alejandro Brazeiro
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Habitat Modification ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Maximum Expansion ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
South Of Brazil ◽  
Projected Changes

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Understanding and predicting climate extremes on land: The new frontier

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Interactions ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Land Water

&lt;p&gt;We live on land and are daily affected by land climate variations, but early climate pioneers often focused on ocean-climate interactions and ice-covered regions. With good reasons, since oceans cover two third of the Earth and are thus critical for the global climate, and because ice sheets have strongly varied over millennia and include key indices on past climate. However, recent research has increasingly shown that land climate, where we live, displays specific climate characteristics, which cannot be simply inferred from global climate responses. This is particularly the case for climate extremes, such as heatwaves and droughts. I will present recent evidence for these properties and some avenues for future research.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Land-climate interactions, which are modulated by vegetation, play a key role for climate variability on continents. This implies a fascinating interface between biological processes and climate physics. The limitation of water on continents, and the role of vegetation in the land water input to the atmosphere, implies very different water-cycle responses compared to what is seen on oceans: For instance, dry regions do not necessarily get drier, nor wet regions wetter under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. In addition, land climate can strongly deviate from global climate in other ways: During the so-called &amp;#8220;hiatus period&amp;#8221; in the early 2000s, changes in temperature extremes on land actually showed an amplified increase. Furthermore, key land processes are still insufficiently captured in state-of-the art Earth System Models (ESMs), such as land water effects on the global carbon cycle, and climate response to irrigation or land management.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Land processes are playing an increasingly central role in the development of pathways for climate mitigation consistent with the aims of the Paris Agreement, for instance related to afforestation or the development of bioenergy use in combination with carbon capture and storage. However, these scenarios often overlook biological and physical constraints for these land cover and land use changes, such as risks from climate extremes, including fire, in a warming world. ESM emulators for grid-cell responses may help to proof such scenarios in the needed rapid and safe transition to a net-zero CO&lt;sub&gt;2&amp;#160;&lt;/sub&gt;world.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 564-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Pompe ◽  
Jan Hanspach ◽  
Franz Badeck ◽  
Stefan Klotz ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Species Loss ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Spatially Varying

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15–19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally—averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

scholarly journals Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3609-3634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Analyses ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

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