scholarly journals How do climate and land use changes affect the water cycle? Modelling study including future drought events prediction using reliable drought indices

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 806-825
Author(s):  
M. Afzal ◽  
R. Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Modelling Study

Methodology for risk assessment of flash flood events due to climate and land-use changes: application to the Llobregat basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Velasco ◽  
À. Cabello ◽  
I. Escaler ◽  
J. I. Barredo ◽  
A. Barrera-Escoda
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Seventh Framework Programme ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Framework Programme Project ◽  
Llobregat River

Global change, including climate, land-use and socio-economic changes, is expected to increase the stress on the entire water cycle. In the Mediterranean region, extreme events are likely to increase due to climate change. This work, framed in the EC Seventh Framework Programme project IMPRINTS, presents a methodology to obtain future flood risk maps using climate and land-use scenarios, identifying the new potential risk zones. The implementation of this methodology is applied to the Llobregat river basin case study. Two different special report on emission scenarios are used, and although the uncertainties are high, the results obtained are coincident: an increase of flood risk is observed in the whole Low Llobregat area. The climate changes affect the basin globally, increasing the risk homogeneously within the area considered. On the other hand, land-use changes represent urban growth in the floodplains, and hence, local risk increases are found in these spots.

scholarly journals Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia I. Seneviratne ◽  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Benoit P. Guillod ◽  
Annette L. Hirsch ◽  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Warming World

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Runoff evolution according to land use change in a small Sahelian catchment

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1569-1607 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Descroix ◽  
M. Esteves ◽  
K. Souley Yéro ◽  
J.-L. Rajot ◽  
M. Malam Abdou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Water ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Water Transmission ◽  
Sahel Region

Abstract. Significant land use changes have been observed in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel region where climatic and demographic factors have led to a rise in cultivated areas, in recent decades. These changes caused strong modifications in the water cycle and in river regimes. By comparing the rainfall-runoff relationships for two periods (1991–1994 and 2004–2010) in two small neighbouring catchments (approx. 0.1 km2 each) of the Sahel, this study highlights the different hydrological consequences of land use change, particularly vegetation clearing and the consequent degradation of topsoil. Runoff increased in the upper basin, while it decreased in the lower basin, due to a strong increase in in-channel infiltration. Flood peak durations have become shorter in the downstream part of the catchment due to the huge increase of runoff water transmission losses within the gullies. Further study will consist of equipping one of the catchments with anti-erosion devices (mainly "half-moons" and terraces) in order to evaluate the influence of anti-erosion devices on runoff and suspended load.

Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 2693-2704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela R. D'Agostino ◽  
Liuzzi Giuliana Trisorio ◽  
Nicola Lamaddalena ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Catchment Modelling ◽  
Modelling Study

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

Key directions and methodological features of modern studies of land use changes

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
Pavlo Kazmir ◽  
Lyubomyr Kazmir
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Scientific Discipline ◽  
Shared Responsibility ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Land Change Science ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Relations ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
Planning Methodology

Interest in land-use changes (LUC) research has been growing rapidly in recent years. This topic has already become the subject of a separate scientific discipline – land use science (or land change science). In order to formulate relevant future policy and develop appropriate land-use management tools, it is crucial to know how the LUC шьзфсе the environment and society condition. For Ukraine, where the structure of land use and the system of land resources management have significantly changed during the years of post-socialist transformation of land relations, the study of the LUC on a modern methodological basis is especially actual. The paper, based on a critical analysis of publications in leading international journals over the last thirty years, identifies key directions of LUC studies and analyzes their methodological features. There is a significant increase of the number of works based on the results of meta-studies and the use of a wide range of methods for modeling the LUC processes, their causes and possible consequences. The great "synergistic potential" of integration of the selected directions is noted, which makes it possible to accelerate the development of the general theory of land use and increase its use efficiency in substantiation of management decisions in the sphere of land use and modernization of the mechanisms of state land, spatial and ecological policies with consideration of existing and potential globalizing challenges. In this context, the key role of the land use integrated planning methodology at regional and local levels is emphasized. This methodology would require close cooperation between government, business and the public in developing a common vision for the implementation of specific land use plans and projects based on the principles of subsidiarity, participativity and shared responsibility.

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