scholarly journals Projecting a second wave of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Akira Endo ◽  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Emergency Scenarios ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Levels

An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple ‘post-emergency’ scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers ( R ) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-of-emergency phase in the first wave of the disease were estimated as 1.78 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.73–1.82), 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.71–0.78) and 0.63 (95% CrI: 0.61–0.65), respectively, in Tokyo and as 1.58 (95% CrI: 1.51–1.64), 1.20 (95% CrI: 1.15–1.25) and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.44–0.51), respectively, in Osaka. Projections showed that a 50% decrease in the high-risk transmission is required to keep R less than 1 in both locations—a level necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence.

scholarly journals Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200279
Author(s):  
Paul Birrell ◽  
Joshua Blake ◽  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Nick Gent ◽  
Daniela De Angelis
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe ‘lockdown’ mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77–84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9–1.4%) overall but 17% (14–22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

scholarly journals Study on Emergency Evacuation and Intervention Behavior of Population with Spatial Knowledge Integrity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuan Wang ◽  
Yan Mao ◽  
Jing Jing Xiong ◽  
Wu He
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Escape Behavior ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Spatial Knowledge ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Crowd Evacuation ◽  
Emergency Scenarios ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Better Than

Abstract The level of spatial knowledge integrity of a population is crucial for fire escape behavior. The use of appropriate interventions for people with different levels of spatial knowledge can effectively improve evacuation efficiency. However, different emergency situations also have different effects on evacuation behavior. In this paper, we combine spatial knowledge integrity, intervention behavior and emergency situations in a fire evacuation study. To complete this study, 128 participants were recruited using VR technology, classified into spatial knowledge completeness, and studied crowd evacuation through different intervention behaviors in different simulated emergency scenarios. The results of the study showed that participants with complete spatial knowledge had shorter evacuation distances and times. Secondly, leader interventions guided evacuation better for participants with incomplete spatial knowledge in low-hazard emergencies, while range interventions were better for participants with complete spatial knowledge. Thirdly, in high-risk emergencies, leader intervention was better than range intervention for evacuation, regardless of spatial knowledge completeness. Fourth, the interaction between spatial knowledge completeness and intervention behavior was significant, positively influencing the evacuation time and distance of participants.

Two Years after the Crisis: Do Risks of the Second Wave Become Stronger?

2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Second Wave

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

“I'd make thee eat the mischief thou hast vented”: Discourse of Law in Ben Jonson's Catiline His Conspiracy

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-45
Author(s):  
Akihiko Shimizu
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
Political Discourse ◽  
Legal Discourse ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Gunpowder Plot ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
Legal Procedures ◽  
The Way

This essay explores the discourse of law that constitutes the controversial apprehension of Cicero's issuing of the ultimate decree of the Senate (senatus consultum ultimum) in Catiline. The play juxtaposes the struggle of Cicero, whose moral character and legitimacy are at stake in regards to the extra-legal uses of espionage, with the supposedly mischievous Catilinarians who appear to observe legal procedures more carefully throughout their plot. To mitigate this ambivalence, the play defends Cicero's actions by depicting the way in which Cicero establishes the rhetoric of public counsel to convince the citizens of his legitimacy in his unprecedented dealing with Catiline. To understand the contemporaneousness of Catiline, I will explore the way the play integrates the early modern discourses of counsel and the legal maxim of ‘better to suffer an inconvenience than mischief,’ suggesting Jonson's subtle sensibility towards King James's legal reformation which aimed to establish and deploy monarchical authority in the state of emergency (such as the Gunpowder Plot of 1605). The play's climactic trial scene highlights the display of the collected evidence, such as hand-written letters and the testimonies obtained through Cicero's spies, the Allbroges, as proof of Catiline's mischievous character. I argue that the tactical negotiating skills of the virtuous and vicious characters rely heavily on the effective use of rhetoric exemplified by both the political discourse of classical Rome and the legal discourse of Tudor and Jacobean England.

Peculiarities of improving interbudgetary relations in conditions of authorities’ decentralization

2020 ◽  
pp. 46-54
Author(s):  
Zenoviy Siryk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Social Services ◽  
The State ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Formal Approach ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Local Areas ◽  
And Control ◽  
Different Levels

Ukraine is a unitary state, yet historically various regions, oblasts, districts, and local areas have different levels of economic development. To secure sustainable economic and social development and provide social services guaranteed by the state for each citizen according to the Constitution, the mechanism of redistribution between revenues and expenditures of oblasts, regions, and territories through the budgets of a higher level is used. The paper aims to research the peculiarities of improving interbudgetary relations in conditions of authorities’ decentralization. The paper defines the nature of interbudgetary relations. The basic and reverse subsidies to Ukraine and Lvivska oblast are analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages the communities face at changing approaches to balancing local budgets are determined. Regulative documents that cover the interbudgetary relations in Ukraine are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the problem of local finances reforming, including the development of interbudgetary relations. The scheme of the economic interbudgetary relations system in Ukraine is developed. The ways to improve the system of interbudgetary relations in Ukraine are suggested. The negative and positive aspects, advantages, and disadvantages of the system of interbudgetary relations in Ukraine require the following improvements. 1. It is necessary to avoid the complete budget alignment in the process of budgets balancing by interbudgetary transfers as the major objective. 2. The interbudgetary transfers should be distributed based on a formal approach. 3. The changes have to be introduced to the calculation of medical and educational subsidies in terms of financial standard of budget provision to avoid the money deficit for coverage of necessary expenditures. 4. There is a need to improve interbudgetary relations at the levels of districts, villages, towns, and cities of district subordination. 5. Improvement of the mechanism of targeted benefits provision, their real evaluation, and control for the use of funds.

Japanese-language videos on YouTube as a source of public health information for COVID-19 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeo Yasu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Information ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
The State ◽  
Video Content ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Public Health Information ◽  
Youtube Videos ◽  
Spread Of Infection

BACKGROUND Serious public health problems, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can cause an infodemic. Sources of information that may cause an infodemic include social networking services; YouTube, which consists of content created and uploaded by individuals, is one such source. OBJECTIVE To survey the content and changes in YouTube videos that present public health information about COVID-19 in Japan. METHODS We surveyed YouTube content regarding public health information pertaining to COVID-19 in Japan. YouTube searches were performed on March 6, 2020 (before the state of emergency), April 14 (during the state of emergency), and May 27 (after the state of emergency was lifted), with 136, 113, and 140 sample videos evaluated, respectively. The main outcome measures were: (1) The total number of views for each video, (2) video content, and (3) the usefulness of the video. RESULTS In the 100 most viewed YouTube videos during the three periods, the number of videos on public health information in March was significantly higher than in May (p = .02). Of the 331 unique videos, 9.1% (n = 30) were released by healthcare professionals. Useful videos providing public health information about the prevention of the spread of infection comprised only 13.0% of the sample but were viewed significantly more often than not useful videos (p = .006). CONCLUSIONS Individuals need to take care when obtaining information from YouTube before or early in a pandemic, during which time scientific evidence is scarce.

scholarly journals A Peri-Implant Disease Risk Score for Patients with Dental Implants: Validation and the Influence of the Interval between Maintenance Appointments

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel de Araújo Nobre ◽  
Francisco Salvado ◽  
Paulo Nogueira ◽  
Evangelista Rocha ◽  
Peter Ilg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Disease Risk Score ◽  
Very High

Background: There is a need for tools that provide prediction of peri-implant disease. The purpose of this study was to validate a risk score for peri-implant disease and to assess the influence of the recall regimen in disease incidence based on a five-year retrospective cohort. Methods: Three hundred and fifty-three patients with 1238 implants were observed. A risk score was calculated from eight predictors and risk groups were established. Relative risk (RR) was estimated using logistic regression, and the c-statistic was calculated. The effect/impact of the recall regimen (≤ six months; > six months) on the incidence of peri-implant disease was evaluated for a subset of cases and matched controls. The RR and the proportional attributable risk (PAR) were estimated. Results: At baseline, patients fell into the following risk profiles: low-risk (n = 102, 28.9%), moderate-risk (n = 68, 19.3%), high-risk (n = 77, 21.8%), and very high-risk (n = 106, 30%). The incidence of peri-implant disease over five years was 24.1% (n = 85 patients). The RR for the risk groups was 5.52 (c-statistic = 0.858). The RR for a longer recall regimen was 1.06, corresponding to a PAR of 5.87%. Conclusions: The risk score for estimating peri-implant disease was validated and showed very good performance. Maintenance appointments of < six months or > six months did not influence the incidence of peri-implant disease when considering the matching of cases and controls by risk profile.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a home-based 7-day infection control strategy for healthcare workers following high-risk exposure to severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Carla Benea ◽  
Laura Rendon ◽  
Jesse Papenburg ◽  
Charles Frenette ◽  
Ahmed Imacoudene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Respiratory Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Objective: Evidence-based infection control strategies are needed for healthcare workers (HCWs) following high-risk exposure to severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, we evaluated the negative predictive value (NPV) of a home-based 7-day infection control strategy. Methods: HCWs advised by their infection control or occupational health officer to self-isolate due to a high-risk SARS-CoV-2 exposure were enrolled between May and October 2020. The strategy consisted of symptom-triggered nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing from day 0 to day 7 after exposure and standardized home-based nasopharyngeal swab and saliva testing on day 7. The NPV of this strategy was calculated for (1) clinical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis from day 8–14 after exposure, and for (2) asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 detected by standardized nasopharyngeal swab and saliva specimens collected at days 9, 10, and 14 after exposure. Interim results are reported in the context of a second wave threatening this essential workforce. Results: Among 30 HCWs enrolled, the mean age was 31 years (SD, ±9), and 24 (80%) were female. Moreover, 3 were diagnosed with COVID-19 by day 14 after exposure (secondary attack rate, 10.0%), and all cases were detected using the 7-day infection control strategy: the NPV for subsequent clinical COVID-19 or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 detection by day 14 was 100.0% (95% CI, 93.1%–100.0%). Conclusions: Among HCWs with high-risk exposure to SARS-CoV-2, a home-based 7-day infection control strategy may have a high NPV for subsequent COVID-19 and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 detection. Ongoing data collection and data sharing are needed to improve the precision of the estimated NPV, and here we report interim results to inform infection control strategies in light of a second wave threatening this essential workforce.

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