scholarly journals Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 140296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi J. Fox ◽  
Glenn Marion ◽  
Ross S. Davidson ◽  
Piran C. L. White ◽  
Michael R. Hutchings
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Nematode Parasite ◽  
Parasitic Nematodes ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Nonlinear Responses ◽  
Helminth Infections

Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct ‘tipping-points’ in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.

scholarly journals Restoration ecologists might not get what they want: Global change shifts trade-offs among ecosystem functions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Fiedler ◽  
José A.F. Monteiro ◽  
Kristin B. Hulvey ◽  
Rachel J. Standish ◽  
Michael P. Perring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Plant Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Plant Traits ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Offs

ABSTRACTEcological restoration increasingly aims at improving ecosystem multifunctionality and making landscapes resilient to future threats, especially in biodiversity hotspots such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Successful realisation of such a strategy requires a fundamental mechanistic understanding of the link between ecosystem plant composition, plant traits and related ecosystem functions and services, as well as how climate change affects these relationships. An integrated approach of empirical research and simulation modelling with focus on plant traits can allow this understanding.Based on empirical data from a large-scale restoration project in a Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia, we developed and validated the spatially explicit simulation model ModEST, which calculates coupled dynamics of nutrients, water and individual plants characterised by traits. We then simulated all possible combinations of eight plant species with different levels of diversity to assess the role of plant diversity and traits on multifunctionality, the provision of six ecosystem functions (covering three ecosystem services), as well as trade-offs and synergies among the functions under current and future climatic conditions.Our results show that multifunctionality cannot fully be achieved because of trade-offs among functions that are attributable to sets of traits that affect functions differently. Our measure of multifunctionality was increased by higher levels of planted species richness under current, but not future climatic conditions. In contrast, single functions were differently impacted by increased plant diversity. In addition, we found that trade-offs and synergies among functions shifted with climate change.Synthesis and application. Our results imply that restoration ecologists will face a clear challenge to achieve their targets with respect to multifunctionality not only under current conditions, but also in the long-term. However, once ModEST is parameterized and validated for a specific restoration site, managers can assess which target goals can be achieved given the set of available plant species and site-specific conditions. It can also highlight which species combinations can best achieve long-term improved multifunctionality due to their trait diversity.

Analysis of Global and National Scenario of Tuber Crops Production: Trends and Prospects

2020 ◽  
pp. 500-510
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Sweet Potatoes ◽  
Nutritional Security ◽  
Rate Analysis ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
The Status ◽  
Food And Nutritional Security ◽  
Tuber Crops

This paper attempts to explore the status of tuber crops cultivation with regard to area, production and productivity across countries and exports of cassava and sweet potatoes from India. The result indicated that among various tuber crops, potatoes were vastly cultivated and consumed by Europe and Asia. At the same time, cassava and sweet potatoes were generally grown and consumed by Africa and Asia. In India, cassava and sweet potatoes are the most important tuber crops due to their large scale and varied uses. The growth rate analysis showed that the area under cassava (-1.38 percent) and sweet potatoes (-0.70 percent) as a whole showed a declining trend in India due to various agro-climatic conditions and socioeconomic constraints. In the context of climate change and considering the importance of root and tuber crops for food and nutritional security, it would be a smart move to bring more area under tuber crops cultivation to achieve 'self-reliance' and ' Make in India Mission'.

scholarly journals New and Repeating Tipping Points: The Interplay of Fire, Climate Change, and Deforestation in Neotropical Ecosystems

2020 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-404
Author(s):  
Mark B. Bush
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Sensitive Species ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Plant Migration ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Andes ◽  
History Of

A 370,000-year paleoecological history of fire spanning four glacial cycles provides evidence of plant migration in response to Andean climate change. Charcoal, an indicator of fire, is only occasionally observed in this record, whereas it is ubiquitous in Holocene-aged Andean records. Fire is a transformative agent in Amazonian and Andean vegetation but is shown to be rare in nature. As humans promote fire, fire-free areas become microrefugia for fire-sensitive species. A distinction is drawn between microrefugia resulting from fire-free zones and those caused by unusual climatic conditions. The importance of this distinction lies in the lack of warmer-than-modern microrefugia aiding upslope migration in response to warming, whereas fire-free microrefugia support tree species above modern tree line or in areas of Amazonia least used by humans. The synergy between fire, deforestation, and climate change could promote a state-change in the ecosystem, one where new microrefugia would be needed to maintain biodiversity. Past tipping points are identified to have occurred within ca. 1°C–1.5°C of modern conditions. The recent climatic instability in both Amazonia and the Andes is viewed in the context of ecological flickering, while the drought-induced and fire-induced tree mortality are aspects of critical slowing down; both possibly portending an imminent tipping point.

scholarly journals Identification of climate changes based on antropogenic transformation of landscapes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Socio Economic Development

Formulation of the problem. Functioning of natural geosystems is aimed at preserving their structure, but economic activity leads to imbalances, decreases in order, loss of internal organization and the inability to maintain the necessary stabilization. Analysis of previous research. Studies of the last decades have shown that the climatic conditions of Ukraine can be unfavorable for the life and economic activity of the society. Problems of further research. To find the solution to the problem of preserving the ability of the biosphere to self-regulation, self-restoration by optimizing anthropogenic load on natural systems is very important. Identification of climate change factors is aimed at finding the most active sources of environmental impact in order to determine the real threat of global climate change. The purpose of the research is to determine the causes, areas of initial formation, further development of negative meteorological processes and phenomena on the territory of Kharkiv region during the last decades and to study parameters and causes of air masses transformation, changes in their properties and various resistance to anthropogenic impact. Research methods are observation with the help of various devices and technical means. An integrated approach using field-based observations and technology of climatic series analysis with the help of statistical methods for climate information processing, characterized by high accuracy, allow us to determine their spatial-temporal features and future projections to the natural environment. Presentation of the main research material. Optimal strategic socio-economic development of the regions requires identification of specific links between natural and socio-economic entities, as well as studying large-scale and profound by the consequences violations of the ecosystem at the planetary level - the biosphere and its components. There is a general tendency towards directed climate change, the so-called "global warming", which threatens natural landscapes, upsetting and destroying them. Practical value. There are causal relationships between climatogenic changes, influence of human activity and the reaction of landscapes to them. This is manifested in creation of a variety of transformed landscapes (agrarian, residential, industrial). The consequence of anthropogenic transformations is the change in the parameters and characteristics of the components of nature. Research results. Indicators are the basis for information blocks concerning decision-making in the areas of socio-economic development. Climate parameters of a certain territory may differ from zonal ones and in combination with anthropogenic transformation affect the general condition of the landscapes, lead to the intensification of adverse hydrometeorological and exogenous geodynamic processes and phenomena (erosion, deluvial processes, landslides, suffusion, deflation, flooding.

Social tipping as a response to anticipated sea level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Wiedermann ◽  
E Keith Smith ◽  
Jonathan F Donges ◽  
Jobst Heitzig ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Climate Action

<p>Social tipping, where minorities trigger large populations to engage in collective action, has been suggested as a key component to address contemporary global challenges, such as climate change or biodiversity loss. At the same time, certain climate tipping elements, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are already at risk of transgressing their critical thresholds, even within the aspired goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° to 2°C. Consequently, recent studies suggest rapid societal transformations, i.e, <em>wanted</em> tipping, may be required to prevent the crossing of dangerous tipping points or critical thresholds in the climate system.</p><p>Here, we explore likelihoods for such social tipping in climate action as a response to anticipated climate impacts, particularly sea-level rise. We first propose a low-dimensional model for social tipping as a refined version of Granovetter's famous and well-established threshold model. This model assumes individuals to become active, e.g., to mitigate climate change, through social influence if a sufficient number of instigators in one’s social network initiate a considered action. We estimate the number of instigators as shares of per-country populations that will likely be impacted by sea-level rise within a given time-window of anticipation. Specifically, we consider sea-level contributions from thermal expansion, mountain glaciers, Greenland as well as Antarctica under different concentration pathways. Additionally, we use nationally aggregated social science survey data of climate change attitudes to estimate the proportion of the population that has the potential to be mobilized for climate action, thereby accounting for heterogeneities across countries as well.</p><p>Our model shows that social tipping, i.e., the majority of a population acting against climate change, becomes likely if the individuals' anticipation time horizon of climate impacts lies in the order of a century. This observation aligns well with ethical time horizons that are often assumed in the context of climate tipping points as they represent the expected lifetime of our children and grandchildren. We thus show that, even though sea-level rise is generally a very slow process, a small dedicated minority of anticipatory individuals – usually 10–20 percent of the population – has the potential to tip collective climate action and with it a whole ensemble of attitudes, behaviours and ultimately policies.</p>

Climate change alone cannot explain altered tick distribution across Europe: a spotlight on endemic and invasive tick species.

2021 ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Frederic Stachurski ◽  
Nathalie Boulanger ◽  
Adrien Blisnick ◽  
Laurence Vial ◽  
Sarah Bonnet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tick Species ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climatic Impact ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Term Monitoring

Abstract The effect of climate on the evolution of tick populations remains difficult to disentangle from other possible causes and undoubtedly varies depending on the region concerned and local tick species. Large-scale, long-term monitoring is, therefore, necessary to accurately assess climatic impact on tick populations. Climate change can alter tick populations, either indirectly by affecting vertebrate host populations or directly by increasing or decreasing their numbers. These ectoparasites, and in particular hard ticks, spend almost their entire life cycle in the external environment, thus climatic conditions influence their activity, viability and distribution. This expert opinion aims to illustrate the impact of climate change, and its association with other variables, on the distribution and abundance of tick populations in Europe using Ixodes ricinus and Hyalomma marginatum as typical examples of endemic and invasive species, respectively.

scholarly journals Water need formation on the drained lands in the variable climatic, agricultural and ameliorative conditions

2020 ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
A. M. Rokochinskiy ◽  
P. P. Volk ◽  
R. M. Koptyuk ◽  
N. V. Prykhodko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Regulation ◽  
Crop Cultivation ◽  
Climate Conditions

Relevance of research. At both global and regional levels, climate change has become an indisputable fact, the presence of which has posed to humanity the challenge of solving a number of extremely important and complex tasks related to the development and implementation of a strategy for their practical continued existence. Data base on evaporation and water needs for agricultural crops in the different periods of their growing, depending on the climatic conditions, are the basis for the development of design and formation of operational regimes of water regulation carried out by justifying the necessary methods of water regulation, types, structures and modes of operation of hydro-reclamation systems and calculation of their parameters. Aim of the study is to estimate the changes in water needs during crop cultivation on the drained lands of the Western Polissya in Ukraine in the variable climatic, agricultural and ameliorative conditions for the substantiation of appropriate adaptive decisions to it. To achieve this goal, the authors evaluated the weather and climate conditions in the Western Polissya in Ukraine and calculated the evaporation in the studied conditions, planned and carried out a large-scale computer experiment, based on a complex of predictive-simulation models concerning the basic regimes and technological variables of the hydro-reclamation system parameters, climate conditions, water regime, water regulation technologies and the productivity of drained lands for the schematized natural, agricultural and ameliorative conditions. Research methods. The research methods were based on the application of system theory along with the systematic approach, system analysis and modeling oriented on widespread use of computers and related software in developing modern approaches to the substantiation of technical and technological solutions for water regulation on the drained lands in the conditions of climate change. The object of the study is the drainage system “Birky” in Rivne region, typical for the region in relation to the natural land reclamation conditions.   Results of the study and the main conclusions. It was established the needs for additional irrigation of cultivated crops on the drained lands of the Western Polissya in Ukraine in the current weather and climatic conditions. Based on the long-term forecast the vegetative values of the total evaporation and the formation of water needs for the drained lands in the variable climatic, agricultural land reclamation conditions were determined. The technological efficiency of different technologies of the irrigation on the drained lands was evaluated.  This approach to the estimation of changes in water needs during crop cultivation in the variable climatic, agricultural and ameliorative conditions allows determining the best technology of water regulation for growing a particular crop under the studied conditions in terms of the most rational use of water resources and the efficiency of system functioning. Prospects. The obtained results can be effectively used for justification of regime and technological decisions in the projects of construction and reconstruction of hydro-reclamation systems of the Western Polissya in Ukraine in the variable climate conditions and developing hydro-technical adaptive measures to the predicted climate change in the region. 

Effect of Weather Factors on the Variability of Economic Characteristics in Sunflower Hybrids

2019 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Economic Traits ◽  
Weather Factors

This article presents the results of twelve-year trials of the Region and Ryabota simple hybrids and the three-line hybrid Kameniar breeding laboratory of IOC NAANU hybrid labs, and analyzes their adaptation to ongoing climate change. The purpose of our work was to determine the formation of major economic traits in sunflower hybrids, depending on the agro-climatic conditions of the year.

scholarly journals Public Awareness: What Climate Change Scientists Should Consider

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8369
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Connected Network ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Valuable Addition ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
Design Solutions ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

In this Opinion, the importance of public awareness to design solutions to mitigate climate change issues is highlighted. A large-scale acknowledgment of the climate change consequences has great potential to build social momentum. Momentum, in turn, builds motivation and demand, which can be leveraged to develop a multi-scale strategy to tackle the issue. The pursuit of public awareness is a valuable addition to the scientific approach to addressing climate change issues. The Opinion is concluded by providing strategies on how to effectively raise public awareness on climate change-related topics through an integrated, well-connected network of mavens (e.g., scientists) and connectors (e.g., social media influencers).

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

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