Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
Binary Outcomes ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Repeated Events

A dominant trend in models with binary outcomes is to control for unmodeled duration dependence by including temporal dependence variables. A second, distinct trend is to interpret both the short- and long-term effects of explanatory variables in autoregressive models. While the first trend is nearly ubiquitous in models with binary outcomes, the second trend has yet to be applied consistently beyond models with continuous outcomes. While scholars use temporal splines and cubic polynomials to model the underlying hazard rate, they have neglected the fact that this causes the explanatory variables to have a long-term effect (LTE) by modifying the future values of the temporal dependence variables. In this article, I propose a simple technique that estimates a wide range of probabilistic LTEs in models with temporal dependence variables. These effects can range from simple LTEs for a one-time change in an explanatory variable to more complex scenarios where effects change in magnitude with time and compound across repeated events. I then replicate Clare's (2010, Ideological fractionalization and the international conflict behavior of parliamentary democracies.International Studies Quarterly54:965–87) examination of the influence of government fractionalization on conflict behavior to show that failing to interpret the results within the context of temporal dependence underestimates the total impact of fractionalization by neglecting LTEs.

Long-term Effects of Triazol Growth Regulators on Stem Elongation of Rhododendron and Kalmia

HortScience ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 436E-436
Author(s):  
Martin P.N. Gent
Keyword(s):  
Dose Response ◽  
Growth Regulator ◽  
Stem Elongation ◽  
Spray Application ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Potted Plants ◽  
Response Coefficient ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Second Year

The persistence of effects of paclobutrazol or uniconazol on stem elongation was determined for several years after large-leaf Rhododendron and Kalmia latifolia were treated with a single-spray application of these triazol growth-regulator chemicals. Potted plants were treated in the second year from propagation, and transplanted into the field in the following spring. The elongation of stems was measured in the year of application and in the following 2 to 4 years. Treatments with a wide range of doses were applied in 1991, 1992, or 1995. For all except the most-dilute applications, stem elongation was retarded in the year following application. At the highest doses, stem growth was inhibited 2 years following application. The results could be explained by a model of growth regulator action that assumed stem elongation was inversely related to amount of growth regulator applied. The dose response coefficient for paclobutrazol was less than that for uniconazol. The dose that inhibited stem elongation one-half as much as a saturating dose was about 0.5 and 0.05 mg/plant, for paclobutrazol and uniconazol, respectively. The dose response coefficient decreased exponentially with time after application, with an exponential time constant of about 2/year. The model predicted a dose of growth regulator that inhibited 0.9 of stem elongation immediately after application would continue to inhibit 0.5 of stem elongation in the following year.

Long-term effects of manure application on grain yield under different cropping systems and ecological conditions in China

2008 ◽  
Vol 147 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. ZHANG ◽  
M. XU ◽  
F. ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Manure Application ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Experiments ◽  
Continuous Maize ◽  
Yield Trends

SUMMARYRice (Oryza sativaL.), wheat (Triticum aestivumL.) and maize (Zea maysL.) are the main crops grown in China. Applying organic manures is an important practice in sustaining soil fertility and agricultural productivity in these cropping systems. The current paper presents the effects of manure application on grain yields in nine long-term experiments that consist of one continuous maize, four wheat–maize and four rice-based cropping systems across a wide range of agro-ecological regions in China. The study shows that regular manure application can increase soil organic carbon (SOC) and grain yield across all the sites. Overall, regular use of manure results in larger increases in SOC in the maize and wheat–maize systems than in the rice-based systems. Application of manure tends to increase the grain yield in the maize and wheat–maize systems during the final years, but increases the grain yield in the rice-based systems during the initial years of the long-term experiments. There is only one site that shows significant improvement in the yield trend in association with the application of manure. The effects of manure on yield trends are probably determined by the initial yield and/or the ‘organic C effect’ that may cause gradual improvements in SOC and soil physical properties.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Employment Vouchers: A Simple Approach

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Michael Orszag ◽  
Dennis J. Snower
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hiring And Firing

Abstract This paper explores the optimal design of subsidies for hiring unemployed workers (`employment vouchers' for short) in the context of a simple dynamic model of the labour market. Focusing on the short-term and long-term effects of the vouchers on employment and unemployment, the analysis shows how the optimal policy depends on the rates of hiring and firing, and on the problems of displacement and deadweight. It also examines the roles of the government budget constraint and of the level of unemployment benefits in optimal policy design. We calibrate the model and evaluate the effectiveness of employment vouchers in reducing unemployment for a wide range of feasible parameters.

scholarly journals The role of oxidative stress, inflammation and acetaminophen exposure from birth to early childhood in the induction of autism

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 407-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Parker ◽  
Chi Dang Hornik ◽  
Staci Bilbo ◽  
Zoie E. Holzknecht ◽  
Lauren Gentry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxidative Stress ◽  
Early Childhood ◽  
Early Development ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Small Children ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
And Oxidative Stress

The wide range of factors associated with the induction of autism is invariably linked with either inflammation or oxidative stress, and sometimes both. The use of acetaminophen in babies and young children may be much more strongly associated with autism than its use during pregnancy, perhaps because of well-known deficiencies in the metabolic breakdown of pharmaceuticals during early development. Thus, one explanation for the increased prevalence of autism is that increased exposure to acetaminophen, exacerbated by inflammation and oxidative stress, is neurotoxic in babies and small children. This view mandates extreme urgency in probing the long-term effects of acetaminophen use in babies and the possibility that many cases of infantile autism may actually be induced by acetaminophen exposure shortly after birth.

scholarly journals Ecotoxicity of Wastewater from Medical Facilities: A Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-31
Author(s):  
A. Cidlinová ◽  
Z. Wittlingerová ◽  
M. Zimová ◽  
T. Chrobáková ◽  
A. Petruželková
Keyword(s):  
Human Health ◽  
Complex Mixture ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Health It ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Low Concentrations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Medical Facilities

Abstract Wastewater from medical facilities contains a wide range of chemicals (in particular pharmaceuticals, disinfectants, heavy metals, contrast media, and radionuclides) and pathogens, therefore it constitutes a risk to the environment and human health. Many micropollutants are not efficiently eliminated during wastewater treatment and contaminate both surface water and groundwater. As we lack information about the long-term effects of low concentrations of micropollutants in the aquatic environment, it is not possible to rule out their adverse effects on aquatic organisms and human health. It is, therefore, necessary to focus on the evaluation of chronic toxicity in particular when assessing the environmental and health risks and to develop standards for the regulation of hazardous substances in wastewater from medical facilities on the basis of collected data. Wastewater from medical facilities is a complex mixture of many compounds that may have synergetic, antagonistic or additive effects on organisms. To evaluate the influence of a wide range of pollutants contained in the effluents from medical facilities on aquatic ecosystems, it is necessary to determine their ecotoxicity.

scholarly journals Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

The R Journal ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Gandrud ◽  
Laron,K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temporal Dependence

Children and Political Violence: An Overview

1994 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Special Section ◽  
Stress And Coping ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Cultural Work ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
And Coping

The papers presented in this special section provide an introduction to the area of research on the effects of political violence on children. The articles cover a wide range of topics from the well-researched question of stress and coping to the less often investigated questions of the development of aggression, the long-term effects of political violence, and the evaluation of attempts at reconciliation. In addition, they represent those geographical areas which at present dominate work in this area the Middle East, Northern Ireland, and South Africa. They also illustrate emerging debates concerning resilience versus vulnerability and the effectiveness of outsiders versus insiders as investigators. The research reported here also points to the need for more cross-cultural work. Finally, it is argued that there is a need to understand the collective nature of political violence. This has implications not only for future research methods but, more importantly, for the development of a theoretical basis that is needed for work in this area.

Long-term effects of engineered nanoparticles on enzyme activity and functional bacteria in wastewater treatment plants

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiong Zheng ◽  
Haining Huang ◽  
Yinglong Su ◽  
Yuanyuan Wei ◽  
Yinguang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plants ◽  
Engineered Nanoparticles ◽  
Ammonia Oxidizing Bacteria ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Gene Expressions ◽  
Key Enzymes ◽  
Functional Bacteria ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The pervasive use of engineered nanoparticles (NPs) in a wide range of fields raises concerns about their potential environmental impacts. Previous studies confirmed that some NPs had already entered wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Wastewater nutrient removal depends on the metabolisms of activated sludge bacteria and their related key enzymes. Therefore, this study compared the possible influences of Al2O3, SiO2, TiO2, and ZnO NPs on the key enzymes activities and microbial community structures involved in wastewater treatment facilities. It was found that long-term exposure to these NPs significantly affected the microbial communities and changed the relative abundances of key functional bacteria, such as ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. Also, the gene expressions and catalytic activities of essential enzymes, such as ammonia monooxygenase, nitrite oxidoreductase, nitrate reductase, and nitrite reductase, were decreased, which finally resulted in a lower efficiency of biological nitrogen removal.

Students with Parents Involved in Substance Abuse or Dependence

2020 ◽  
pp. 181-194
Author(s):  
Celeste M. Malone ◽  
Tierra T. Ellis ◽  
DeLon Isom
Keyword(s):  
Substance Use ◽  
Behavioral Outcomes ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Social Emotional ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Parental Substance Use ◽  
The Individual

Substance use affects more than the individual user; all those who have relationships with the person using are impacted and suffer the consequences of substance use. Parental substance use places children at risk for a wide range of adverse physical, psychological, social-emotional, and behavioral outcomes at all stages of the developmental continuum. However, schools can help mitigate those adverse outcomes by providing children with access to social support and helping them to develop coping skills. This chapter provides an overview of the short- and long-term effects of parental substance use and its impact on youth functioning and provides educators with strategies and resources to support these students and meet their needs.

scholarly journals User perceptions of long-term costs and benefits of MDMA use: Findings from a large online sample

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Elsey ◽  
Vivi Anna Felicia Wuestman ◽  
Anouk Fieten
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Drug Effects ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Data Set ◽  
User Perceptions ◽  
Wide Range

Background. Previous research has focused largely on risks associated with non-clinical (‘recreational’) MDMA use. Potential benefits produced through MDMA-assisted psychotherapy raise the question whether recreational users might report some positive long-term effects of MDMA use.Aim. 1) To assess the perceptions of recreational MDMA users regarding a wide range of both positive and negative long-term effects of MDMA use. 2) To generate a large data set including other correlates of interest to highlight targets for future research. Methods. Eight-hundred and eighty-six MDMA users gave valid responses to an online survey, covering perceived long-term effects, acute and subacute effects, use motivations, contexts of use, and polydrug use. We present descriptive results for motivations, acute, subacute, and long-term effects, and exploratory relationships between long-term effects and these variables.Results. User perceptions of MDMA’s long-term effects were far more positive than negative, with a positive overarching perspective on having used MDMA and endorsement of several more specific effects. Negative/unpleasant acute and subacute effects of MDMA use were positively related to negative long-term effects. Positive/pleasant acute and subacute effects were positively related to positive long-term effects. User motivations were also significantly associated with perceived long-term effects. A minority of users reported negative effects (e.g., on concentration/memory and mood), which should not be ignored.Conclusions. Factors beyond the anticipation of a short-term high likely play into many users’ decisions to use MDMA. A nuanced understanding of user perceptions can inform drug safety communication, our understanding of drug effects, and drug policy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document