scholarly journals Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. Keele ◽  
Rocío Titiunik
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Political Advertisements ◽  
Geographic Boundaries ◽  
Random Fashion ◽  
And Control ◽  
Administrative Boundary

Political scientists often turn to natural experiments to draw causal inferences with observational data. Recently, the regression discontinuity design (RD) has become a popular type of natural experiment due to its relatively weak assumptions. We study a special type of regression discontinuity design where the discontinuity in treatment assignment is geographic. In this design, which we call the Geographic Regression Discontinuity (GRD) design, a geographic or administrative boundary splits units into treated and control areas, and analysts make the case that the division into treated and control areas occurs in an as-if random fashion. We show how this design is equivalent to a standard RD with two running variables, but we also clarify several methodological differences that arise in geographical contexts. We also offer a method for estimation of geographically located treatment effects that can also be used to validate the identification assumptions using observable pretreatment characteristics. We illustrate our methodological framework with a re-examination of the effects of political advertisements on voter turnout during a presidential campaign, exploiting the exogenous variation in the volume of presidential ads that is created by media market boundaries.

Natural Experiments Based on Geography

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Keele ◽  
Rocío Titiunik
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Original Study ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
And Control ◽  
Administrative Boundary

Political scientists often attempt to exploit natural experiments to estimate causal effects. We explore how variation in geography can be exploited as a natural experiment and review several assumptions under which geographic natural experiments yield valid causal estimates. In particular, we focus on cases where a geographic or administrative boundary splits units into treated and control areas. The different identification assumptions we consider suggest testable implications, which we use to establish their plausibility. Our methods are illustrated with an original study of whether ballot initiatives increase turnout in Wisconsin and Ohio, which illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of causal inferences based on geographic natural experiments.

scholarly journals Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from Close U.S. House Races, 1942–2008

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devin Caughey ◽  
Jasjeet S. Sekhon
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Covariate Adjustment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Covariate Balance ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
And Control

Following David Lee's pioneering work, numerous scholars have applied the regression discontinuity (RD) design to popular elections. Contrary to the assumptions of RD, however, we show that bare winners and bare losers in U.S. House elections (1942–2008) differ markedly on pretreatment covariates. Bare winners possess largeex antefinancial, experience, and incumbency advantages over their opponents and are usually the candidates predicted to win byCongressional Quarterly's pre-election ratings. Covariate imbalance actually worsens in the closest House elections. National partisan tides help explain these patterns. Previous works have missed this imbalance because they rely excessively on model-based extrapolation. We present evidence suggesting that sorting in close House elections is due mainly to activities on or before Election Day rather than postelection recounts or other manipulation. The sorting is so strong that it is impossible to achieve covariate balance between matched treated and control observations, making covariate adjustment a dubious enterprise. Although RD is problematic for postwar House elections, this example does highlight the design's advantages over alternatives: RD's assumptions are clear and weaker than model-based alternatives, and their implications are empirically testable.

Funding Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Lockups

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Adam L. Aiken ◽  
Christopher P. Clifford ◽  
Jesse A. Ellis ◽  
Qiping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Funding Liquidity ◽  
And Control ◽  
Funding Risk

Abstract We exploit the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new measure of funding liquidity risk that varies within funds. We find that hedge funds with lower funding risk generate higher returns, and this effect is driven by their increased exposure to equity-mispricing anomalies. Our results are robust to a variety of sampling criteria, variable definitions, and control variables. Further, we address endogeneity concerns in various ways, including a placebo approach and regression discontinuity design. Collectively, our results support a causal link between funding risk and the ability of managers to engage in risky arbitrage.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effectiveness of Vaccines Using a Regression Discontinuity Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 188 (6) ◽  
pp. 987-990
Author(s):  
Nicole E Basta ◽  
M Elizabeth Halloran
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The regression discontinuity design (RDD), first proposed in the educational psychology literature and popularized in econometrics in the 1960s, has only recently been applied to epidemiologic research. A critical aim of infectious disease epidemiologists and global health researchers is to evaluate disease prevention and control strategies, including the impact of vaccines and vaccination programs. RDDs have very rarely been used in this context. This quasi-experimental approach using observational data is designed to quantify the effect of an intervention when eligibility for the intervention is based on a defined cutoff such as age or grade in school, making it ideally suited to estimating vaccine effects given that many vaccination programs and mass-vaccination campaigns define eligibility in this way. Here, we describe key features of RDDs in general, then specific scenarios, with examples, to illustrate that RDDs are an important tool for advancing our understanding of vaccine effects. We argue that epidemiologic researchers should consider RDDs when evaluating interventions designed to prevent and control diseases. This approach can address a wide range of research questions, especially those for which randomized clinical trials would present major challenges or be infeasible. Finally, we propose specific ways in which RDDs could advance future vaccine research.

The Politics of Succession in Charismatic Movements: Routinization versus Revival in Argentina, Venezuela, and Peru

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-315
Author(s):  
Caitlin Andrews-Lee
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Leadership Selection ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control

Scholars suggest that charismatic movements must institutionalize to survive beyond the death of the founder. Yet charismatic movements around the world that have maintained their personalistic nature have persisted or reemerged. This article investigates the conditions under which politicians can use their predecessors' charismatic legacies to revive these movements and consolidate power. I argue that three conditions - the mode of leadership selection, the presence of a crisis, and the ability to conform to the founder's personalistic nature - shape successors' capacity to pick up their forefather's mantle and restore the movement to political predominance. To demonstrate my theory, I trace the process through which some leaders succeeded while others failed to embody the founder's legacy across three charismatic movements: Argentine Peronism, Venezuelan Chavismo, and Peruvian Fujimorismo. Alexander Lee, Incumbency, Parties, and Legislatures: Theory and Evidence from India Incumbent legislators in some developing countries are often thought to face an electoral disadvantage relative to challengers. This article traces this effect to high levels of centralization within the political parties and governments of these countries. In political systems dominated by party leaders, legislators face substantial formal and informal constraints on their ability to influence policy, stake positions, and control patronage, which in turn reduce their ability to build up personal votes. This theory is tested on a dataset of Indian national elections since 1977, using a regression discontinuity design to measure the effects of incumbency. Candidates less affected by centralization - those from less-centralized political parties and from parties not affected by restrictions on free parliamentary voting - have a low or non-existent incumbency disadvantage.

Incumbency, Parties, and Legislatures: Theory and Evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-331
Author(s):  
Alexander Lee
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
And Control ◽  
Incumbency Disadvantage

Incumbent legislators in some developing countries are often thought to face an electoral disadvantage relative to challengers. This article traces this effect to high levels of centralization within the political parties and governments of these countries. In political systems dominated by party leaders, legislators face substantial formal and informal constraints on their ability to influence policy, stake positions, and control patronage, which in turn reduce their ability to build up personal votes. This theory is tested on a dataset of Indian national elections since 1977, using a regression discontinuity design to measure the effects of incumbency. Candidates less affected by centralization-those from less-centralized political parties and from parties not affected by restrictions on free parliamentary voting - have a low or non-existent incumbency disadvantage.

Sweeping the flies away: evidence from a fruit fly eradication program

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1920-1962
Author(s):  
Lina Salazar ◽  
Julian Aramburu ◽  
Marcos Agurto ◽  
Alessandro Maffioli ◽  
Jossie Fahsbender
Keyword(s):  
Pest Management ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pre Treatment ◽  
And Control

Abstract This article evaluates the short-term impacts of a fruit fly integrated pest management program in Peru. Exploiting arbitrary variation in the program’s intervention borders, we use a geographical regression discontinuity design to identify the program’s effects on agricultural outcomes. Pre-treatment balance tests show that producer and farm-level pre-treatment characteristics evolve smoothly at the intervention border. Results indicate that farmers within treated areas improved pest knowledge and are more likely to implement prevention and control practices. Also, they increased fruit production and sales. Our findings are confirmed by placebo tests and are robust to alternative regression discontinuity bandwidths and polynomials.

scholarly journals But Economics Is Not an Experimental Science

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A Sims
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Applied Microeconomics ◽  
Computational Experiments ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Experimental Science ◽  
Rhetorical Devices ◽  
The Core

The fact is, economics is not an experimental science and cannot be. “Natural” experiments and “quasi” experiments are not in fact experiments. They are rhetorical devices that are often invoked to avoid having to confront real econometric difficulties. Natural, quasi-, and computational experiments, as well as regression discontinuity design, can all, when well applied, be useful, but none are panaceas. The essay by Angrist and Pischke, in its enthusiasm for some real accomplishments in certain subfields of economics, makes overbroad claims for its favored methodologies. What the essay says about macroeconomics is mainly nonsense. Consequently, I devote the central part of my comment to describing the main developments that have helped take some of the con out of macroeconomics. Recent enthusiasm for single-equation, linear, instrumental variables approaches in applied microeconomics has led many in these fields to avoid undertaking research that would require them to think formally and carefully about the central issues of nonexperimental inference—what I see and many see as the core of econometrics. Providing empirically grounded policy advice necessarily involves confronting these difficult central issues.

scholarly journals Who Punishes Extremist Nominees? Candidate Ideology and Turning Out the Base in US Elections

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL ◽  
DANIEL M. THOMPSON
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Campaign Contributions ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Swing Voters

Political observers, campaign experts, and academics alike argue bitterly over whether it is more important for a party to capture ideologically moderate swing voters or to encourage turnout among hardcore partisans. The behavioral literature in American politics suggests that voters are not informed enough, and are too partisan, to be swing voters, while the institutional literature suggests that moderate candidates tend to perform better. We speak to this debate by examining the link between the ideology of congressional candidates and the turnout of their parties’ bases in US House races, 2006–2014. Combining a regression discontinuity design in close primary races with survey and administrative data on individual voter turnout, we find that extremist nominees—as measured by the mix of campaign contributions they receive—suffer electorally, largely because theydecreasetheir party’s share of turnout in the general election, skewing the electorate towards their opponent’s party. The results help show how the behavioral and institutional literatures can be connected. For our sample of elections, turnout appears to be the dominant force in determining election outcomes, but it advantages ideologically moderate candidates because extremists appear to activate the opposing party’s base more than their own.

scholarly journals The Effect of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Percentage Points

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare turnout under closed list proportional representation and under an open list, plurality-at-large system where voters can vote for individual candidates from the same or different party-lists. I find that the open list system increases turnout by between 1 and 2 percentage points. The results suggest that open list systems, which introduce competition both across and within parties, are conducive to more voter turnout.

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