Accounting for Voter Heterogeneity within and across Districts with a Factor-Analytic Voter-Choice Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wagner A. Kamakura ◽  
José Afonso Mazzon

In this study, we propose a model of individual voter behavior that can be applied to aggregate data at the district (or precinct) levels while accounting for differences in political preferences across districts and across voters within each district. Our model produces a mapping of the competing candidates and electoral districts on a latent “issues” space that describes how political preferences in each district deviate from the average voter and how each candidate caters to average voter preferences within each district. We formulate our model as a random-coefficients nested logit model in which the voter first evaluates the candidates to decide whether or not to cast his or her vote, and then chooses the candidate who provides him or her with the highest value. Because we allow the random coefficient to vary not only across districts but also across unobservable voters within each district, the model avoids the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Assumption both across districts and within each district, thereby accounting for the cannibalization of votes among similar candidates within and across voting districts. We illustrate our proposed model by calibrating it to the actual voting data from the first stage of a two-stage state governor election in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, and then using the estimates to predict the final outcome of the second stage.

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050008
Author(s):  
Farhad Etebari

Recent developments of information technology have increased market’s competitive pressure and products’ prices turned to be paramount factor for customers’ choices. These challenges influence traditional revenue management models and force them to shift from quantity-based to price-based techniques and incorporate individuals’ decisions within optimization models during pricing process. Multinomial logit model is the simplest and most popular discrete choice model, which suffers from an independence of irrelevant alternatives limitation. Empirical results demonstrate inadequacy of this model for capturing choice probability in the itinerary share models. The nested logit model, which appeared a few years after the multinomial logit, incorporates more realistic substitution pattern by relaxing this limitation. In this paper, a model of game theory is developed for two firms which customers choose according to the nested logit model. It is assumed that the real-time inventory levels of all firms are public information and the existence of Nash equilibrium is demonstrated. The firms adapt their prices by market conditions in this competition. The numerical experiments indicate decreasing firm’s price level simultaneously with increasing correlation among alternatives’ utilities error terms in the nests.


Author(s):  
Peter Vovsha

Currently, modal split modeling is done mainly by means of disaggregated mode choice models. The almost absolute dominance of multinomial and nested logit models over other mode choice models among applied transportation modelers is attributable to their theoretical soundness, to their simple and understandable analytical structure, and to the calibration procedures that have been developed. Typical urban transport systems, however, are characterized by a variety of modes including private (automobile), public transit (bus, suburban rail, light rail, and subway), and various combinations of these. Analysis reveals that the nested logit model based on the assumption of groupwise similarities among modes is not a suitable modeling tool in such situations. A cross-nested model that is derived from the generalized extreme value class and that can be thought of as a generalization of the nested logit model is proposed. The model takes into account the cross similarities between different pure and combined modes. The cross-nested structure allows for the introduction of the differentiated measurement of pairwise similarities among modes as opposed to the inflexible groupwise similarities permitted by the nested logit model. The proposed model is described, and it is compared with alternative modeling constructs.


Author(s):  
Soumava Bandyopadhyay

This paper proposes a theoretical choice model to explain how consumers may react to their concerns regarding online information privacy. A nested logit model is suggested as the appropriate model to predict the choice of online privacy risk management strategies by consumers. Conceptual justification is provided for the proposed model. The validity of the major assumptions behind the model in the context of Internet use is explained. Managerial implications and future research directions are also discussed.


2017 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngsuk Suh ◽  
Sun-Joo Cho ◽  
Brian A. Bottge

This article presents a multilevel longitudinal nested logit model for analyzing correct response and error types in multilevel longitudinal intervention data collected under a pretest–posttest, cluster randomized trial design. The use of the model is illustrated with a real data analysis, including a model comparison study regarding model complexity and cluster bias. Two substantive research questions regarding the intervention effect on correct response probability and error patterns are investigated using the proposed model. The recovery of item parameters for the proposed model using two sample size conditions is examined via a simulation study. The accuracy of the parameter estimates is comparable with those found in previous studies for the same family of models, except for the intercept parameters of correct responses. Finally, the impact of ignoring cluster membership in the model on the parameter estimation is also studied by fitting a single-level model to multilevel data. Ignoring cluster membership in the model adversely affects the estimation of intercept parameters in correct and error responses.


Author(s):  
Peter Vovsha ◽  
Shlomo Bekhor

A new link-nested logit model of route choice is presented. The model is derived as a particular case of the generalized-extreme-value class of discrete choice models. The model has a flexible correlation structure that allows for overcoming the route overlapping problem. The corresponding stochastic user equilibrium is formulated in two equivalent mathematical programming forms: as a particular case of the general Sheffi formulation and as a generalization of the logit-based Fisk formulation. A stochastic network loading procedure is proposed that obviates route enumeration. The proposed model is then compared with alternative assignment models by using numerical examples.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Alfred Galichon

In this paper, we give a two-line proof of a long-standing conjecture of Ben-Akiva in his 1973 PhD thesis regarding the random utility representation of the nested logit model, thus providing a renewed and straightforward textbook treatment of that model. As an application, we provide a closed-form formula for the correlation between two Fréchet random variables coupled by a Gumbel copula.


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