scholarly journals Normative Uncertainty as a Voting Problem

Mind ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 125 (500) ◽  
pp. 967-1004 ◽  
Author(s):  
William MacAskill
Keyword(s):  
Normative Uncertainty

Normative Uncertainty and the Dependence Problem

Mind ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (513) ◽  
pp. 43-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abelard Podgorski
Keyword(s):  
Normative Beliefs ◽  
Dependence Problem ◽  
Normative Uncertainty

Abstract In this paper, I enter the debate between those who hold that our normative uncertainty matters for what we ought to do, and those who hold that only our descriptive uncertainty matters. I argue that existing views in both camps have unacceptable implications in cases where our descriptive beliefs depend on our normative beliefs. I go on to propose a fix which is available only to those who hold that normative uncertainty matters, ultimately leaving the challenge as a threat to recent skepticism about such views.

Ethics of Uncertainty As an Extension of Virtue Epistemology

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-177
Author(s):  
Sergei Yu. Shevchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Virtue Epistemology ◽  
Direct Interaction ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
Problematic Situation ◽  
Joint Decision ◽  
Genetic Risks ◽  
Normative Uncertainty ◽  
Genetic Consultation

Uncertainty can’t be understood without taking into account both properties of the problem situation and agent’s knowledge about it. The correspondence of knowledge and situation of decision-making is crucial for understanding the onto-epistemological nature of uncertainty. At the same time, this correspondence is the key topic in virtue epistemology, especially in its ‘non-classical’, regulatory, branch, related to works of R. Roberts and W.J. Wood. In this article, genetic consultation is chosen as an example of such a problematic situation since a doctor and a patient explicitly deal with the uncertainty of genetic risks. The problems of communication and joint decision-making in the context of medical-genetic consultation are comprehensively described in bioethics. At the same time, its social dimension is limited to the direct interaction of two individual agents, that allows us to use it as a model for constructing the ethics of uncertainty. In this article, four forms of uncertainty are identified: descriptive, normative and radical uncertainties, and translation uncertainty. Referring to the approaches of virtue epistemology, the author brings each of these forms into conformity with the proposed regulatory principle. The regulations assume that generating or disseminating knowledge under conditions of uncertainty require taking into account the incompleteness of the presented model of reality in its four aspects. A modelled fragment of reality could change in a predictable (descriptive uncertainty) or unexpected (radical uncertainty) way. The goals and values of a model’s user can not be hierarchically ordered, and may also change in the future (normative uncertainty). User’s interpretations of the model may be diverse, and can never be strictly defined by the intentions of the model’s author (indeterminancy of translation, or uncertainty whether success of co-reference is achieved).

The Evidentialist's Wager

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (6) ◽  
pp. 320-342
Author(s):  
William MacAskill ◽  
Aron Vallinder ◽  
Caspar Oesterheld ◽  
Carl Shulman ◽  
Johannes Treutlein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Causal Decision Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Causal Decision ◽  
Normative Uncertainty

Suppose that an altruistic agent who is uncertain between evidential and causal decision theory finds herself in a situation where these theories give conflicting verdicts. We argue that even if she has significantly higher credence in CDT, she should nevertheless act in accordance with EDT. First, we claim that the appropriate response to normative uncertainty is to hedge one's bets. That is, if the stakes are much higher on one theory than another, and the credences you assign to each of these theories are not very different, then it is appropriate to choose the option that performs best on the high-stakes theory. Second, we show that, given the assumption of altruism, the existence of correlated decision makers will increase the stakes for EDT but leave the stakes for CDT unaffected. Together these two claims imply that whenever there are sufficiently many correlated agents, the appropriate response is to act in accordance with EDT.

Normative Uncertainty

2014 ◽  
pp. 39-62
Author(s):  
Kristin Voigt ◽  
Stuart G. Nicholls ◽  
Garrath Williams
Keyword(s):  
Normative Uncertainty

scholarly journals Decision under normative uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Franz Dietrich ◽  
Brian Jabarian
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Original Position ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Condition ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Normative Uncertainty ◽  
Alternative Theories

Abstract While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the ‘original position’, where one’s future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty – normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle – maximizing expected value (‘Expectationalism’) – has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.

Theoretical and methodological foundations of continuous pedagogical education: pre-university component

2021 ◽  
pp. 160-168
Author(s):  
Galina N. Skudareva
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
University Education ◽  
Social Partnership ◽  
Scientific Substantiation ◽  
Normative Uncertainty

The problem of pre-university pedagogical education is actualized with the goal of identifying its theoretical and methodological foundations, analyzing the features and specifics in the context of continuous pedagogical education. By means of the methods of theoretical analysis of literature, contextual and dynamic analysis of pedagogical systems: a) the socio-educational and practical importance of pre-university education in the context of its normative uncertainty, semantic categorical “blurring”, lack of scientific substantiation is emphasized; b) the factors that complicate the process of pre-university education are named; c) the concepts of “continuous pe-dagogical education”, “pre-university education” are theoretically formulated; d) revealed the theoretical and methodological foundations of pre-university education; e) the subjects are characterized; f) the types are differentiated (school, university and mixed); g) the functions of pre-university education in its integration, socializing, adaptive, motivational and personality-developing interpretations are studied, and its principles (humanism, continuity, social partnership, continuity, integrity) are systematized, and generalized signs (integrativity, practice-oriented, mo-bility).

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