Net Zero for the International Shipping Sector? An Analysis of the Implementation and Regulatory Challenges of the IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions

Author(s):  
Beatriz Garcia ◽  
Anita Foerster ◽  
Jolene Lin

Abstract In 2018, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced the first sector-wide emission reduction target for international shipping. The roadmap to achieve this goal is the Initial IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, which proposes implementation measures for the short, medium and long term. This article examines three of these measures: National Action Plans (NAPs), market-based mechanisms (MBMs) and alternative fuels. We argue that NAPs can play a key role in directing national action and facilitating implementation within national jurisdictions. In relation to MBMs, we find that a carbon tax might be more efficient than emission trading. Yet, ultimately, the sector’s decarbonisation can only be truly achieved with zero-carbon fuels. Noting the considerable barriers to the development and use of these fuels, we consider how the private sector is beginning to shift resources to this challenge, spurred by the IMO targets and new understandings of climate-related financial risks and opportunities.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Wilbur

Whole-building model optimizations have been performed for a single-detached house in 5 locations with varying climates, electricity emissions factors, and energy costs. The multi-objective optimizations determine the life-cycle cost vs. operational greenhouse gas emissions Pareto front to discover the 30-year life-cycle least-cost building design heated 1) with natural gas, and 2) electrically using a) central air-source heat pump, b) ductless mini-split heat pump c)ground-source heat pump, and d) electric baseboard, accounting for both initial and operational energy-related costs. A net-zero carbon design with grid-tied photovoltaics is also optimized. Results indicate that heating system type influences the optimal enclosure design, and that neither building total energy use, nor space heating demand correspond to GHG emissions across heating system types. In each location, at least one type of all-electric design has a lower life-cycle cost than the optimized gas-heated model, and such designs can mitigate the majority of operational GHG emissions from new housing in locations with a low carbon intensity electricity supply.


2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Ball

Abstract A review of conventional, unconventional, and advanced geothermal technologies highlights just how diverse and multi-faceted the geothermal industry has become, harnessing temperatures from 7 °C to greater than 350 °C. The cost of reducing greenhouse emissions is examined in scenarios where conventional coal or combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants are abated. In the absence of a US policy on a carbon tax, the marginal abatement cost potential of these technologies is examined within the context of the social cost of carbon (SCC). The analysis highlights that existing geothermal heat and power technologies and emerging advanced closed-loop applications could deliver substantial cost-efficient baseload energy, leading to the long-term decarbonization. When considering an SCC of $25, in a 2025 development scenario, geothermal technologies ideally need to operate with full life cycle assessment (FLCA) emissions, lower than 50 kg(CO2)/MWh, and aim to be within the cost range of $30−60/MWh. At these costs and emissions, geothermal can provide a cost-competitive low-carbon, flexible, baseload energy that could replace existing coal and CCGT providing a significant long-term reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study confirms that geothermally derived heat and power would be well positioned within a diverse low-carbon energy portfolio. The analysis presented here suggests that policy and regulatory bodies should, if serious about lowering carbon emissions from the current energy infrastructure, consider increasing incentives for geothermal energy development.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.


Significance LNG is cleaner than most fossil fuels but still incompatible with net zero emissions. India, China and other Asian economies see LNG imports as a ready and economically viable means of displacing coal and oil use. Natural gas and then LNG demand will eventually peak as the energy transition accelerates over the next 20 years. Impacts LNG market growth will embed fossil fuel use and infrastructure in developing economies’ energy mixes. Recent market volatility and record spot LNG prices may reverse the trend of greater reliance on spot transactions than long-term contracts. Although the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of LNG use in transport are far from clear, it will gain market share in the next few years. LNG project developers will seek to cut GHG emissions from their projects to prolong LNG's attractiveness in the energy transition.


2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 93-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Heinze ◽  
Karsten Voss

Zero energy consumption. The goal sounds simple and is presented excessively in variations all over the world. Energy and environmental politics demand zero consumption as a long-term goal, marketing has discovered the concept and first buildings and settlements aiming at balanced energy or emission budgets have been constructed. As an example, the German Federal Government specifies in its fifth energy research programme (2005): For new buildings, the goal is to reduce the primary energy demand, i.e. the energy demand for heating, domestic hot water, ventilation, air-conditioning, lighting and auxiliary energy, again by half compared to the current state of the art. The long-term goal is zero-emission buildings. England and the USA aim for zero carbon developments and net-zero energy buildings (DOE, 2009) in political programmes. The Vatican accepted the offer of climatic “indulgence”—and thus became the first country in the world to completely compensate its carbon emission (Spiegel online, 2007). Megaprojects in the growth regions of the Arabian Gulf and China advertise with a CO2-neutral balance. A Zero Carbon Community is to be created in Masdar, Abu Dhabi (Foster, 2007), and the first Chinese carbon-neutral ecocity was planned for Dongtan, Shanghai (Pearce, 2009). Not only to aid international communication, but also to further the processes required to solve energy-related problems, it is essential that key words, central concepts, their usage and their relationships be clarified. This article intends to contribute to this clarification based on the monitored example of a solar estate. Net zero energy building, equilibrium building, carbon neutral city—the accounting method varies, depending on motivation and point of view. If the focus is on finite and scarce resources, energy is the currency; CO2-equivalent emissions are considered if global warming and public health is the issue; the cost of energy is what concerns a tenant paying for heating and electricity. A balance in one set of units can be converted to another, but the conversion factors often also shift the balance point. Energy will be used as the reference quantity in the following article, which prevents confusion with non-energy measures (e.g. carbon credits for forestry) and avoids the nuclear power debate, in which nuclear power is partly calculated as being CO2 neutral. The diversity of concepts is an indicator that a scientifically based methodology is still lacking, though initial publications focus hereon (Pless et al. 2009). Since October 2008, a group of experts in the International Energy Agency has been addressing this issue under the heading, Towards Net Zero Energy Solar Buildings (Riley et al. 2008). The goal is to document and analyse outstanding examples that are close to being net zero-energy buildings, and while doing so, to develop the methodology and tools for working with such buildings. The Chair of Technical Building Services, University of Wuppertal, is co-ordinating the methodological work. The zero-energy approach—still under construction—will here be presented using a solar estate as an illustration.


OCL ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Philippe Dusser

GHG reductions are a major focus of the EU policy. Several regulations have been set in order to meet the EU commitments under the Paris Agreement with an overall reduction of 40% from 1990 level. For the transport sector which is responsible for around 20% of the total GHG emissions, the GHG reductions obligations have been translated by i) reinforced GHG reduction thresholds for biofuels into the recast Renewable Energy Directive RED II; ii) an ambitious target of 30% GHG emission reduction target from 2005 level in the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) common to “non-ETS sector” (not covered by the Emission Trading System – ETS) as agriculture, building, waste… and transport. Furthermore, other EU regulations directed to Cars, Vans as well as Heavy Duty Vehicles set GHG emission reduction targets for new vehicle up to 2030. Finally, in its communication “A Clean Planet for All” the EU Commission describes A Strategy for 2050 to achieve a carbon neutral economy. This article addresses also the case of the German “GHG quota” which is a national support system for biofuels and as such is parallel to the European obligations stemming from the RED II renewable energy mandates that are to be met by Germany.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia Christodoulou ◽  
Dimitrios Dalaklis ◽  
Aykut Ölcer ◽  
Fabio Ballini

In order for the maritime sector to align itself with the targets set by the Paris Agreement, it should reduce its GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 with the ultimate aim to phase them out entirely. It is along these lines that in April 2018 the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) developed a strategy, consisting of a range of potential technical and operational measures to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping, ranking from improvements on ship design to the employment of alternative fuels. In order to stimulate the adoption of these policies, the IMO also considers the implementation of market-based measures (MBM) that will provide additional incentives to shipowners to invest in new technologies and uptake of cleaner fuels. The MBMs analysed in this paper include two different policies proposed by different countries and associations for the abatement of GHG emissions from shipping: a) the International Fund for GHG emissions from ships that includes the imposition of a global levy on marine bunker fuel for all vessels and b) the Maritime Emission Trading System (METS) that requires all maritime companies to buy/sell emission allowances to meet their annual emission reductions targets, setting a cap on global shipping emissions. This paper presents and analyses these two diverse MBMs, highlighting their main advantages and drawbacks. The scope of this paper is to investigate the potential of these MBMs to incentivise investments in new technologies and alternative fuels, both essential for the decarbonisation of the maritime sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley

AbstractThis paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Wilbur

Whole-building model optimizations have been performed for a single-detached house in 5 locations with varying climates, electricity emissions factors, and energy costs. The multi-objective optimizations determine the life-cycle cost vs. operational greenhouse gas emissions Pareto front to discover the 30-year life-cycle least-cost building design heated 1) with natural gas, and 2) electrically using a) central air-source heat pump, b) ductless mini-split heat pump c)ground-source heat pump, and d) electric baseboard, accounting for both initial and operational energy-related costs. A net-zero carbon design with grid-tied photovoltaics is also optimized. Results indicate that heating system type influences the optimal enclosure design, and that neither building total energy use, nor space heating demand correspond to GHG emissions across heating system types. In each location, at least one type of all-electric design has a lower life-cycle cost than the optimized gas-heated model, and such designs can mitigate the majority of operational GHG emissions from new housing in locations with a low carbon intensity electricity supply.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Pérez Domínguez ◽  
Agustin del Prado ◽  
Klaus Mittenzwei ◽  
Jordan Hristov ◽  
Stefan Frank ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper investigates how the short-lived character of methane could have important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture, sector which is often seen to have a limited contribution to a net-zero carbon economy. Motivated by the renewed attention for the short-term versus long-term warming effects of methane, we explore how various appreciations of global warming affect cost-efficient mitigation policies and dietary transitions, and the implied warming. Results show that the choice of a particular metric is decisive if used to determine optimal mitigation options. For instance, focusing on the long-term warming effect of agricultural methane emissions could lead to a higher relevance of low meat diets relative to stringent mitigation policies. Moreover, a combination of stringent mitigation and dietary changes could help reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.


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