scholarly journals Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342
Author(s):  
Deniz Cil ◽  
Alyssa K Prorok

Abstract When do rebel leaders “sell out” their constituents in the terms of peace by signing agreements that benefit group elites over the rebel constituency, and when do they instead “stand firm,” pushing for settlement terms that benefit the public they claim to represent? This article examines variation in the design of civil war settlement agreements. It argues that constituents, fighters, and rebel elites have different preferences over the terms of peace, and that rebel leaders will push for settlements that reflect the preferences of whichever audience they are most reliant on and accountable to. In particular, leaders of groups that are more civilian-reliant for their military and political power are more likely to sign agreements that favor broad benefits for civilian constituents, while leaders who do not depend on civilian support for their political and military power will sign agreements with fewer public benefits. We test this argument using original data on the design of all final peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2009, and several proxies for the group's level of reliance on civilian supporters. Using a variety of statistical tests and accounting for nonrandom selection into peace agreements, we find strong support for our hypothesis.

Significance Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity. Impacts Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control. Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws. The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades. Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.


Author(s):  
Krista Wiegand ◽  
Erin Rowland ◽  
Eric Keels

Within this article, we explore how third-party knowledge of ongoing conflicts shapes the ability of mediators to successfully end conflicts through negotiated settlements. Since the primary role of mediators is to share information, and combatants have incentives to misrepresent information, contextual knowledge about the conflict and actors is critical. We argue that experienced diplomats with greater knowledge of the civil war state, close knowledge of the combatants, and connections with civil society are less vulnerable and more effective in mediation efforts. We propose that third parties seeking a diplomatic solution to ongoing conflicts may be more successful when they maintain strong diplomatic knowledge of the disputants as well as knowledge of the processes by which previous mediation efforts have attempted to resolve the dispute. Using a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model on peace agreements from 1989 to 2005, we find strong support that diplomatic knowledge matters significantly.


Author(s):  
Wendy J. Schiller ◽  
Charles Stewart III

From 1789 to 1913, U.S. senators were not directly elected by the people—instead the Constitution mandated that they be chosen by state legislators. This radically changed in 1913, when the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution was ratified, giving the public a direct vote. This book investigates the electoral connections among constituents, state legislators, political parties, and U.S. senators during the age of indirect elections. The book finds that even though parties controlled the partisan affiliation of the winning candidate for Senate, they had much less control over the universe of candidates who competed for votes in Senate elections and the parties did not always succeed in resolving internal conflict among their rank and file. Party politics, money, and personal ambition dominated the election process, in a system originally designed to insulate the Senate from public pressure. The book uses an original data set of all the roll call votes cast by state legislators for U.S. senators from 1871 to 1913 and all state legislators who served during this time. Newspaper and biographical accounts uncover vivid stories of the political maneuvering, corruption, and partisanship—played out by elite political actors, from elected officials, to party machine bosses, to wealthy business owners—that dominated the indirect Senate elections process. The book raises important questions about the effectiveness of Constitutional reforms, such as the Seventeenth Amendment, that promised to produce a more responsive and accountable government.


2017 ◽  
pp. 226-291
Author(s):  
O.V. Liubimova

On the basis of The Deeds of Divine Augustus or Res Gestae Divi Augusti (RGDA), the author analyses the significance of the legacy of populares, one of the main political movements in the Late Republic, in the politics of Emperor Augustus. The main features of this political movement, in the opinion of modern researchers, were their demagogic political style, their assertion of the sovereignty of Roman people and their protection of economic interests of the lower classes. In the RGDA there is no mention of the odious political methods of the populares that entailed conflicts and unrest but the text significantly dwells on the tribunician power granted to Augustus. In the Late Republic the tribunician power served as the basis of the populares political method. The ideology reflected in the RGDA entrusts the Roman people with an important role in the public administration and describes the Roman people as a fullfledged partner of the Senate, however it lacks the populares contraposition of the Roman people to the Senate (or to the oligarchy controlling the Senate). The populares legacy is particularly apparent in the RGDA chapters describing Augustus expenses in favor of the Roman people such as the organisation of various social measures, shows and public building. Augustus inherited from the populares of the Late Republic the idea of Roman plebs as a source of political power and of satisfaction of its interest as a mechanism of maintaining political stability, but discarded those of populares slogans and methods that had a conflict potential.На материале Деяний Божественного Августа (Res Gestae Divi Augusti) рассматривается вопрос о том, какое место занимало в политике Августа наследие популяров одного из двух основных политических течений Поздней республики. В качестве характерных черт этого движения исследователи выделяют демагогический политический стиль приверженность идеологии народного суверенитета защиту экономических интересов неимущих слоёв. В RGDA не упоминаются одиозные политические методы популяров, которые влекли за собой конфликты и беспорядки, но важное место занимает предоставленная Августу трибунская власть, которая в Республике служила основой популярского Modus Operandi. Идеология, выраженная в RGDA, отводит римскому народу важное место в управлении государством и представляет его равноправным партнёром сената однако в ней отсутствует характерное для популяров противопоставление народа сенату (или олигархии, контролирующей сенат). Наиболее очевидно наследие популяров в тех главах RGDA, где описываются расходы Августа в пользу римского народа: социальные мероприятия, организация зрелищ и строительство. Август заимствовал у позднереспубликанских популяров представление о том, что римский плебс может служить источником политической силы, и удовлетворение его интересов необходимо для поддержания политической стабильности, однако исключил из своего арсенала те политические лозунги и методы популяров, которые имели конфликтный потенциал.


Author(s):  
Jason Phillips

This conclusion explains how American temporalities changed after the war and sketches how expectations and anticipations of the future have alternated as the dominant view in American culture through the twentieth century to today. This chapter also shows how the short war myth, the story that Civil War Americans expected a short, glorious war at the outset, gained currency with the public and consensus among scholars during the postwar period. It contrasts the wartime expectations of individuals with their postwar memories of the war’s beginning to show how the short war myth worked as a tool for sectional reconciliation and a narrative device that dramatized the war by creating an innocent antebellum era or golden age before the cataclysm. It considers why historians still accept the myth and showcases three postwar voices that challenged it.


Author(s):  
Cassandra L. Yacovazzi

Nuns in popular media today are a staple of kitsch culture, evident in the common appearance of bobble-head nuns, nun costumes, and nun caricatures on TV, movies, and the stage. Nun stereotypes include the sexy vixen, the naïve innocent, and the scary nun. These types were forged in nineteenth-century convent narratives. While people today may not recognize the name “Maria Monk,” her legacy lives on in the public imagination. There may be no demands to search convents, but nuns and monastic life are nevertheless generally not taken seriously. This epilogue traces opposition to nuns from the Civil War to the present, analyzing the various images of nuns in popular culture as they relate to the antebellum campaign against convents. It argues that the source of the misunderstanding about nuns is rooted in the inability to categorize these women either as traditional wives and mothers or as secular, career-driven singles.


Author(s):  
Ramon Das

This chapter argues that the philosophical debate around humanitarian intervention would be improved if it were less ‘ideal-theoretic’. It identifies two ideal-theoretic assumptions. One, in target states where humanitarian intervention is being considered, there are two distinct and easily identified groups: ‘bad guys’ committing serious human rights abuses, and innocent civilians against whom the abuses are being committed. Two, external to the target state in question, there are suitably qualified ‘good guys’—prospective interveners who possess both the requisite military power and moral integrity. If the assumptions hold, the prospects for successful humanitarian intervention are much greater. As a contrast, some possible non-ideal assumptions are that (i) there are many bad guys in a civil war, and (ii) the good guy intervener is itself supporting some of the bad guys. If these non-ideal assumptions hold, prospects for successful humanitarian intervention are small.


2021 ◽  
pp. 002200942199789
Author(s):  
David A. Messenger

The bombardment of civilians from the air was a regular feature of the Spanish Civil War from 1936 to 1939. It is estimated some 15,000 Spaniards died as a result of air bombings during the Civil War, most civilians, and 11,000 were victims of bombing from the Francoist side that rebelled against the Republican government, supported by German and Italian aviation that joined the rebellion against the Republic. In Catalonia alone, some 1062 municipalities experienced aerial bombardments by the Francoist side of the civil war. In cities across Spain, municipal and regional authorities developed detailed plans for civilian defense in response to these air campaigns. In Barcelona, the municipality created the Junta Local de Defensa Passiva de Barcelona, to build bomb shelters, warn the public of bombings, and educate them on how to protect themselves against aerial bombardment. They mobilized civilians around the concept of ‘passive defense.’ This proactive response by civilians and local government to what they recognized as a war targeting them is an important and under-studied aspect of the Spanish Civil War.


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