Parental Effects and Climate Change: Will Avian Incubation Behavior Shield Embryos from Increasing Environmental Temperatures?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 1068-1080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E DuRant ◽  
John D Willson ◽  
Rachel B Carroll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Behavioral Plasticity ◽  
Parental Behavior ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Parental Effects ◽  
Incubation Behavior ◽  
Avian Incubation

Abstract A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors, like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, and these factors interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this article, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central USA will increase temperatures that eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.

scholarly journals Bioclimatic conditions and thermal seasons of the year in Szczecin

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-299
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Mąkosza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Thermal Spring ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Relative Air Humidity ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Bioclimatic Conditions

Climate change is an empirical fact evidenced by subsequent IPCC reports. The observed climate change is also manifested in the altered date of occurrence and duration of the seasons in a year. Variability of thermal conditions due to climate warming will have its toll on the bioclimatic conditions. The assessment of bioclimatic conditions was conducted with the use of Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The present elaboration is based on hourly values of the following meteorological elements: air temperature, relative air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover. The meteorological data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) in Szczecin and cover the period 2000-2019. Variability of bioclimatic conditions is considered per periods corresponding to thermal seasons of the year as identified by the Gumiński (1948) method on the basis of monthly air temperature values. The analysed UTCI values with respect to thermal seasons indicate that mean UTCI values in the period 2000-2019 representative for thermal summer amount to 22.6°C, thermal spring 9,9°C, thermal autumn 8.4°C, thermal winter -10.4°C, early spring -4.6°C, and early winter -7.9°C. For the periods with identified lack of thermal winter, mean UTCI value was -6.6°C. The aim of the present paper is an attempt to assess the variability of biothermal conditions as calculated using the UTCI index against the thermal seasons of the year in Szczecin.

scholarly journals The Association between Weather Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Tegal Regency

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 339
Author(s):  
Fitra Tresna Asih Arieskha ◽  
Mursid Rahardjo ◽  
Tri Joko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Air Humidity ◽  
Weather Variability ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Weather Changes

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) was a vector-borne disease that spreads rapidly and could cause death. Weather changes and climate change indirectly affects the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Conducive tropical weather and climate elements such as rainfall, air temperature and air humidity that are supported by the existence of habitat for Aedes aegypti mosquito could increase the risk of dengue cases. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of DHF in Tegal Regency during the period of 2012-2018. The design of this study was ecological study whereas unit analysis of the study is at population level. The data obtained was analysed by using correlation test spearman to identify correlation of the moran index on weather variability and dengue morbidity rates. The results of variability analysis were rainfall (p = 0,879; r = 0,071), air temperature (p = 0,023; r = -0,821) and air humidity (p = 0,879; r = -0,071). It was showed that the significant risk factors for the incidence of DHF in Tegal Regency was air temperatures. The study concluded that Tegal Regency has weather variability conditions that have the potential to increase the chances of dengue fever therefore intervention such as mitigation are expected to stifle the pace of climate change, and adaptation are needed to facing future impacts that related to the eradication of DHF.

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

scholarly journals Selected Aspects of Indoor Climate in a Passive Office Building with a Thermally Activated Building System: A Case Study from Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 860
Author(s):  
Piotr Michalak
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Office Building ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Indoor Climate ◽  
Thermally Activated ◽  
System A ◽  
Warm Sensation ◽  
Building System ◽  
Heating Energy Consumption

Modern buildings with new heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems offer possibility to fit parameters of the indoor environment to the occupants’ requirements. The present paper describes the results of measurements performed in an office room in the first Polish passive commercial office building during four months of normal operation. They were used to calculate parameters describing thermal comfort: vertical air temperature profile, floor surface temperature, predicted mean vote (PMV) and predicted percent of dissatisfied (PPD). Obtained results confirmed good thermal conditions in the analysed room. The average temperature of the floor’s surface varied from 20.6 °C to 26.2 °C. The average vertical air temperature, calculated for working days, was from 22.5 °C to 23.1 °C. The temperature difference between the floor and 5 cm below the ceiling was from −0.9 °C to 6.3 °C. The PMV index varied from 0.52 to 1.50 indicating ‘slightly warm’ sensation, in spite of ‘neutral’ reported by employees. Also measured cooling and heating energy consumption was presented. The performed measurements confirmed the ability of thermally activated building system (TABS) to keep good thermal conditions.

scholarly journals Heatwaves and Summer Urban Heat Islands: A Daily Cycle Approach to Unveil the Urban Thermal Signal Changes in Lisbon, Portugal

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Oliveira ◽  
António Lopes ◽  
Ezequiel Correia ◽  
Samuel Niza ◽  
Amílcar Soares
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Daily Cycle ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Thermal Signal ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Local Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat

Lisbon is a European Mediterranean city, greatly exposed to heatwaves (HW), according to recent trends and climate change prospects. Considering the Atlantic influence, air temperature observations from Lisbon’s mesoscale network are used to investigate the interactions between background weather and the urban thermal signal (UTS) in summer. Days are classified according to the prevailing regional wind direction, and hourly UTS is compared between HW and non-HW conditions. Northern-wind days predominate, revealing greater maximum air temperatures (up to 40 °C) and greater thermal amplitudes (approximately 10 °C), and account for 37 out of 49 HW days; southern-wind days have milder temperatures, and no HWs occur. Results show that the wind direction groups are significantly different. While southern-wind days have minor UTS variations, northern-wind days have a consistent UTS daily cycle: a diurnal urban cooling island (UCI) (often lower than –1.0 °C), a late afternoon peak urban heat island (UHI) (occasionally surpassing 4.0 °C), and a stable nocturnal UHI (1.5 °C median intensity). UHI/UCI intensities are not significantly different between HW and non-HW conditions, although the synoptic influence is noted. Results indicate that, in Lisbon, the UHI intensity does not increase during HW events, although it is significantly affected by wind. As such, local climate change adaptation strategies must be based on scenarios that account for the synergies between potential changes in regional air temperature and wind.

ON THE THERMAL REGIME OF THE SURFACE AIR LAYER IN THE DEBED RIVER BASIN (ARMENIA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
MARGARYAN V.G. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Surface Air Layer

The features of the thermal regime of the surface air layer in the Debed river basin are considered. A statistical analysis of the average annual and average seasonal values of air temperature from 1964 to 2018 was carried out, two periods were identified, their time course was shown. The analysis was carried out using data from six meteorological stations representing the lowland, mountain and high-mountain climatic zones of the Debed river basin. A correlation was obtained between the absolute altitude and the monthly average values of air temperature for January and July, which can be used to assess the thermal conditions of unexplored or poorly studied territories and for cartography. The time course of average values of air temperatures for the seasonal period has been studied. Analysis of trend lines of temporal changes in air temperatures shows that in all situations on the territory of the basin as a whole, there is a tendency of temperature growth. Moreover, with a range of interannual fluctuations, a break in the course of temperatures in the early to mid 1990 is clearly visible, after which their significant increase began. It turned out that a significant increase in seasonal temperatures is observed especially over the period 1993-2018, which means that the annual warming after the mid 1990 occurred primarily due to summer and spring seasons. The regular dynamics indicates that in the studied area in terms of temperatures, a tendency of softening winters, a decrease in the water content of rivers, aridization of the climate. The results obtained can be used to assess the regularities of the spatial-temporal distribution of the temperature of the study area, to clarify the thermal balance, for the rational use of heat resources, as well as in the development of strategic programs for longterm analysis.

Investigating the species-specific association between anuran calling phenology and air temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Wong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Interspecific Variation ◽  
Northern Ontario ◽  
Anuran Species ◽  
Calling Behaviour ◽  
Survival And Development ◽  
Species Specific

Climate change has been associated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibians, specifically the order Anura (frogs and toads), are considered particularly vulnerable due to their sensitivity to anthropogenic and environmental change. Previous research has documented shifts in the timing of anuran breeding that can be attributed, in part, to climate change, with potential implications for reproduction, survival, and development. This study aims to investigate how air temperature is associated with anuran calling phenology. I will examine the temporal trends in spring and summer air temperature in a lake in northern Ontario, Canada. and quantify seasonal patterns of calling anuran species using acoustic monitoring over a four-month period. I predict that there will be interspecific variation in peak calling associated with air temperature. Additionally, I expect to find asymmetrical association between air temperature and anuran species’ calling behaviour – wherein prolonged breeding species will have a larger optimal temperature range for calling compared to explosive breeding species. The findings of this research will aid in future conservation and provide insight for management strategies of anurans in Canada in response to anticipated climate warming.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

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