scholarly journals A new structural break test for panels with common factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanjun Zhu ◽  
Vasilis Sarafidis ◽  
Mervyn J Silvapulle
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Break Point ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Stringent Requirement ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Weak Exogeneity ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
Annual Time

Summary This paper develops new tests against a structural break in panel data models with common factors when T is fixed, where T denotes the number of observations over time. For this class of models, the available tests against a structural break are valid only under the assumption that T is ‘large’. However, this may be a stringent requirement—more commonly so in datasets with annual time frequency, in which case the sample may cover a relatively long period even if T is not large. The proposed approach builds upon existing generalized method of moments methodology and develops Distance-type and Lagrange Multiplier-type tests for detecting a structural break, both when the break point is known and when it is unknown. The proposed methodology permits weak exogeneity and/or endogeneity of the regressors. In a simulation study, the method performed well, in terms of size and power, as well as in terms of successfully locating the time of the structural break. The method is illustrated by testing the so-called ‘Gibrat’s Law’, using a dataset from 4,128 financial institutions, each one observed for the period 2002–2014.

scholarly journals Energy Consumption and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: A Structural Break Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-201
Author(s):  
Adedayo Emmanuel Longe ◽  
Emmanuel Olajide Adebayo ◽  
Shehu Muhammad ◽  
Oluwole Oluniyi Adelokun
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Break Point ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
Trade And Exchange

AbstractThe study analyses the structural break impact on the relationship between energy consumption and foreign direct investment in Nigeria from 1970 to 2015. The study accounts for the structural break and estimates the short-run and long-run relationship between energy consumption and foreign direct investment using ARDL estimation technique and Bai-Perron Least Squares Break Point. It was observed from the findings that a strong long-run cointegrating relationship exist between energy consumption and foreign direct investment with and without structural break. The structural break test reveals a break period of 1995 which supports the occurrence of oil price review by OPEC in 1995. Also, the ARDL estimate result revealed that energy consumption, trade and exchange rate adversely attract foreign direct investment, while GDP positively attract foreign direct investment both in the short-run and long-run in Nigeria. The study concludes that even though Nigeria’s GDP is trending towards attracting FDI into the economy, energy consumption, trade and exchange rate obstruct the attraction through the additional cost incurred as a result of imbalances in the variables. A major recommendation from the findings is that energy policies need quick re-visit in Nigeria. However, they will - due to the pressure exerted by the constant growth of the population, i.e. on the demand side, demand inflation will constantly manifest.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Mpapalika ◽  
Christopher Malikane
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Structural Break Test

This paper investigates the determinants of the sovereign risk premium in African countries. We employ the dynamic fixed effects model to determine the key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Country-specific effects are fixed and the inclusion of dummy variables using the Bai–Perron multiple structural break test is significant at a 5% level. For robustness, the time-series generalized method of moments (GMM) is used where the null hypothesis of the Sargan Test of over-identifying restrictions (OIR) and the Arellano–Bond Test of no autocorrelation are not rejected. This implies that the instruments used are valid and relevant. In addition, there is no autocorrelation in the error terms. Our results show that the exchange rate, Money supply/GDP (M2/GDP) ratio, and trade are insignificant. Furthermore, our findings indicate that public debt/GDP ratio, GDP growth, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, commodity price, and market sentiment are significant at a 5% and 10% level.

scholarly journals The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽  
Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽  
A. Nazif Çatık
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

scholarly journals Is Human Capital the Sixth Factor? Evidence from US Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahul Roy ◽  
Santhakumar Shijin
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Gmm Estimation ◽  
Asset Return ◽  
Asset Pricing Model

Problem/Relevance: Measuring the risk of an asset and the economic forces driving the price of the risk is a challengingtask that preoccupied the asset pricing literature for decades. However, there exists no consensus on the integrated asset pricing framework among the financial economists in the contemporaneous asset pricing literature. Thus, we consider and study this research problem that has greater relevance in pricing the risks of an asset. In this backdrop, we develop an integrated equilibrium asset pricing model in an intertemporal (ICAPM) framework. Research Objective/Questions: Broadly we have two research objectives. First, we examine the joint dynamics of the human capital component and common factors in approximating the variation in asset return predictability. Second, we test whether the human capital component is the unaccounted and the sixth pricing factor of FF five-factor asset pricing model. Additionally, we assess the economic and statistical significance of the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. Methodology: The human capital component, market portfolio, size, value, profitability, and investment are the pricing factors of the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. We use Fama-French (FF) portfolios of 2  3, 5  5, 10  10 sorts, 2  4  4 sorts, and the Industry portfolios to examine the equilibrium six-factor asset pricing model. The Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation is used to estimate the parameters of variant asset pricing models and Gibbons-Ross-Shanken test is employed to evaluate the performance of the variant asset pricing frameworks. Major Findings: Our approaches led to three conclusions. First, the GMM estimation result infers that the human capital component of the six-factor asset pricing model significantly priced the variation in excess return on FF portfolios of variant sorts and the Industry portfolios. Further, the sensitivity to human capital component priced separately in the presence of the market portfolios and the common factors. Second, the six-factor asset pricing model outperforms the CAPM, FF three-factor model, and FF five-factor model, which indicates that the human capital component is a significant pricing factor in asset return predictability. Third, we argue that the human capital component is the unaccounted asset pricing factor and equally the sixth-factor of the FF five-factor asset pricing model. The additional robustness test result confirms that the parameter estimation of the six-factor asset pricing model is robust to the alternative definitions of the human capital component. Implications: The empirical results and findings equally pose the more significant effects for the decision-making process of the rational investor, institutional managers, portfolio managers, and fund managers in formulating the better investment strategies, which can help in diversifying the aggregate risks.

Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Wawro
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Moments Estimators

Panel data are a very valuable resource for finding empirical solutions to political science puzzles. Yet numerous published studies in political science that use panel data to estimate models with dynamics have failed to take into account important estimation issues, which calls into question the inferences we can make from these analyses. The failure to account explicitly for unobserved individual effects in dynamic panel data induces bias and inconsistency in cross-sectional estimators. The purpose of this paper is to review dynamic panel data estimators that eliminate these problems. I first show how the problems with cross-sectional estimators arise in dynamic models for panel data. I then show how to correct for these problems using generalized method of moments estimators. Finally, I demonstrate the usefulness of these methods with replications of analyses in the debate over the dynamics of party identification.

Fiskalische Effekte der Kommunalverfassungsreformen der 1990er Jahre in Deutschland / Reforming Local Constitutions in Germany during the 1990s – Their Fiscal Effects

2008 ◽  
Vol 228 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenz Blume ◽  
Thomas Döring ◽  
Stefan Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Entry Barriers ◽  
Direct Election ◽  
German States ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The U.S

SummaryMost German states changed their local constitutions during the 1990s in order to become more citizen-friendly. To reach that goal, many local constitutions now allow for the direct election of mayors, initiatives and referenda, and vote-aggregation as well as vote-splitting. Simultaneously, the five-percent threshold was abolished lowering entry barriers. This contribution asks whether these reforms had any effects on local fiscal policies. Based on the reforms that took place in Schleswig-Holstein, Bavaria and Hesse and drawing on a structural break test it is shown that the direct election of mayors has led to lower government spending. The introduction of direct democratic elements, on the other hand, has led to higher expenditures. The empirical results concerning direct democracy substantially deviate from the findings regarding both Switzerland and the U.S.. It is argued that the difference might be due to the lack of fiscal referenda in Germany.

EUROPEAN FISCAL DISCIPLINE BEFORE AND AFTER EMU: CRASH DIET OR PERMANENT WEIGHT LOSS?

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 404-424 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW HUGHES HALLETT ◽  
JOHN LEWIS
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Stability Pact ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Stability

This paper studies the evolution of European fiscal policies in three periods: the pre-Maastricht phase (to 1991); the runup to monetary union (1992–1997), and the stability pact phase (1998 onward). Using three separate indicators, we search for structural breaks that could signify a change in the average level of discipline in these periods. We find increased fiscal discipline only up to 1997. We conclude the new fiscal discipline was a temporary phenomenon, a product of the sanction of being denied entry to the Euro. After EMU, fiscal policy gradually loosened. A single structural break test will miss these dynamic effects, and could easily generate the false conclusion that fiscal discipline had tightened since the start of phase two of EMU.

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