scholarly journals 466 PREVALENCE AND IMPACT OF FRAILTY IN PATIENTS HOSPITALISED WITH COVID-19. THE SALFORD EXPERIENCE IN WAVES 1 AND 2

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. ii14-ii18
Author(s):  
A Khan ◽  
F R Espinoza ◽  
T Kneen ◽  
A Dafnis ◽  
H Allafi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Clinical Frailty Scale ◽  
Patient Demographics ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on the frail older population, with significant rates of COVID-related hospital admissions and deaths amongst this vulnerable group. There is little evidence comparing the prevalence and impact of frailty amongst patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in wave 1 vs wave 2 of the pandemic. Methods Prospective observational study of all consecutive patients admitted to Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust (SRFT) between 27th February and 28th of April 2020 (wave 1), and 1st October to 10th November 2020 (wave 2) with a diagnosis of COVID-19. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Patient demographics, co-morbidities, biochemical parameters, and frailty (using the Clinical Frailty Scale, score 1–4 = not frail, score 5–9 = frail) were collected. A Cox proportional hazards model associating wave and frailty with mortality was used. A logistic regression model was used to associate patient characteristics with wave. Both models adjusted for patient characteristics. Results A total of 700 patients were included (N = 429, wave 1; N = 271, wave 2). In wave 1, 42% (N = 180) were female; median age was 72; 37% (N = 160) were non-survivors, 49% (N = 212) were frail (CFS 5–9). In wave 2, 38% (N = 104) were female; median age was 73; 30% (N = 80) were non-survivors, 39% (N = 106) were frail. There was a reduction in mortality in wave 2, aHR = 0.71 (95% CI 0.53–0.94). Frailty was associated with increased mortality, after adjustment for age, wave and other patient characteristics. Patients were more frail in wave 1, and the effect of frailty was more pronounced in wave 1 vs wave 2. Conclusion Frailty is highly prevalent amongst patients of all ages admitted to SRFT with COVID-19. Higher scores of frailty are associated with increased mortality.

scholarly journals Unplanned Readmission within 28 Days of Hospital Discharge in a Longitudinal Population-Based Cohort of Older Australian Women

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3136
Author(s):  
Dinberu S. Shebeshi ◽  
Xenia Dolja-Gore ◽  
Julie Byles
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Index Admission ◽  
Unplanned Readmission ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
English Speaking

This study aimed to estimate the incidence of 28-day unplanned readmission among older women, and associated factors. Data were used from the 1921–1926 birth cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Linkage of self-reported survey data with the Admitted Patient Data Collection allowed the identification of hospital admissions for each woman and the corresponding baseline characteristics. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to identify factors associated with time to unplanned readmission, using SAS software V 9.4. (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Of 2056 women with index unplanned admission, 363 (17.5%) were readmitted within 28 days of discharge, and of these 229 (11.14%) had unplanned readmission. Among women with unplanned readmission, 24% were for the same condition as for the index hospitalisation. Cardiovascular diseases were the main diagnoses for the index admission and readmission. Unplanned readmission risk was higher if not partnered (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–1.95), of non-English speaking background (HR = 1.62%, 95% CI: 1.07–2.47), more than three days length of stay on index admission (HR = 1.41%, 95% CI: 1.04–1.90) and one or two of the assessed chronic diseases (HR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.19–2.36). At least one in ten women had unplanned readmission at some time between ages 75–95 years. Women who are not partnered, not of English-speaking background, with longer hospital stay and those with multi-morbidity, may need further efforts during their stay and on discharge to mitigate unplanned readmission.

scholarly journals 558 PREVALENCE AND IMPACT OF FRAILTY IN PATIENTS HOSPITALISED WITH COVID-19. THE SALFORD EXPERIENCE IN WAVES 1 AND 2

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. ii14-ii18
Author(s):  
A Khan ◽  
F R Espinoza ◽  
T Kneen ◽  
A Dafnis ◽  
H Allafi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Vulnerable Group ◽  
Clinical Frailty Scale ◽  
Patient Demographics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Regression ◽  
Proportional Hazards Regression ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on the frail older population, with significant rates of COVID-related hospital admissions and deaths amongst this vulnerable group. There is little evidence of frailty prevalence amongst patients hospitalised with COVID-19, nor the impact of frailty on their survival. Methods Prospective observational study of all consecutive patients admitted to Salford Royal NHS Foundation (SRFT) Trust between 27th February and 28th April 2020 (wave 1), and 1st October to 10th November 2020 (wave 2) with a diagnosis of COVID-19. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Patient demographics, co-morbidities, admission level disease severity (estimated with CRP) and frailty (using the Clinical Frailty Scale, score 1–3 = not frail, score 4–9 = frail) were collected. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the time to mortality. Results A total of 693 (N = 429, wave 1; N = 264, wave 2) patients were included, 279 (N = 180, 42%, wave 1; N = 104, 38%, wave 2) were female, and the median age was 72 in wave 1 and 73 in wave 2. 318 (N = 212, 49%, wave 1; N = 106, 39%, wave 2) patients presenting were frail. There was a reduction in mortality in wave 2, adjusted Hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.60 (95%CI 0.44–0.81; p = 0.001). There was an association between frailty and mortality aHR = 1.57 (95%CI 1.09–2.26; p = 0.015). Conclusion Frailty is highly prevalent amongst patients of all ages admitted to SRFT with COVID-19. Higher scores of frailty are associated with increased mortality.

scholarly journals Diagnostic and prognostic value of presepsin and procalcitonin in non-infectious organ failure, sepsis, and septic shock: a prospective observational study according to the Sepsis-3 definitions

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukyo Lee ◽  
Juhyun Song ◽  
Dae Won Park ◽  
Hyeri Seok ◽  
Sejoong Ahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Septic Shock ◽  
Organ Failure ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Sepsis And Septic Shock ◽  
Diagnostic And Prognostic Value

Abstract Background We investigated the diagnostic and prognostic value of presepsin among patients with organ failure, including sepsis, in accordance with the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3). Methods This prospective observational study included 420 patients divided into three groups: non-infectious organ failure (n = 142), sepsis (n = 141), and septic shock (n = 137). Optimal cut-off values of presepsin to discriminate between the three groups were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We determined the optimal cut-off value of presepsin levels to predict mortality associated with sepsis and performed Kaplan–Meier survival curve analysis according to the cut-off value. Cox proportional hazards model was performed to determine the risk factors for 30-day mortality. Results Presepsin levels were significantly higher in sepsis than in non-infectious organ failure cases (p < 0.001) and significantly higher in patients with septic shock than in those with sepsis (p = 0.002). The optimal cut-off value of the presepsin level to discriminate between sepsis and non-infectious organ failure was 582 pg/mL (p < 0.001) and between sepsis and septic shock was 1285 pg/mL (p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value of the presepsin level for predicting the 30-day mortality was 821 pg/mL (p = 0.005) for patients with sepsis. Patients with higher presepsin levels (≥ 821 pg/mL) had significantly higher mortality rates than those with lower presepsin levels (< 821 pg/mL) (log-rank test; p = 0.004). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, presepsin could predict the 30-day mortality in sepsis cases (hazard ratio, 1.003; 95% confidence interval 1.001–1.005; p = 0.042). Conclusions Presepsin levels could effectively differentiate sepsis from non-infectious organ failure and could help clinicians identify patients with sepsis with poor prognosis. Presepsin was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality among patients with sepsis and septic shock.

scholarly journals Effect of multiple episodes of acute kidney injury on mortality: an observational study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Walker ◽  
Nicosha De Souza ◽  
Simona Hapca ◽  
Miles D Witham ◽  
Samira Bell
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Patients who survive an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) are more likely to have further episodes of AKI. AKI is associated with increased mortality, with a further increase with recurrent episodes. It is not clear whether this is due to AKI or as a result of other patient characteristics. The aim of this study was to establish whether recurrence of AKI is an independent risk factor for mortality or if excess mortality is explained by other factors. Methods This observational cohort study included adult people from the Tayside region of Scotland, with an episode of AKI between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009. AKI was defined using the creatinine-based Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes definition. Associations between recurrent AKI and mortality were examined using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results Survival was worse in the group identified to have recurrent AKI compared with those with a single episode of AKI [hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–1.63; P &lt; 0.001]. After adjustment for comorbidities, stage of reference AKI, sex, age, medicines that predispose to renal impairment or, in the 3 months prior to the reference AKI, deprivation and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), recurrent AKI was independently associated with an increase in mortality (hazard ratio = 1.25, 95% CI 1.14–1.37; P &lt; 0.001). Increasing stage of reference AKI, age, deprivation, baseline eGFR, male sex, previous myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and diuretic use were all associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with recurrent AKI. Conclusions Recurrent AKI is associated with increased mortality. After adjusting for patient characteristics, the increase in mortality is independently associated with recurrent AKI and is not solely explained by other risk factors.

Comparison of adding cetuximab (Cmab) or panitumumab (Pmab) to irinotecan (IRI)-based chemotherapy in salvage line against KRAS wild-type patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC): Analysis of HGCSG0901 and 1002.

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 598-598
Author(s):  
Koshi Fujikawa ◽  
Satoshi Yuki ◽  
Takahide Sasaki ◽  
Yasuo Takahashi ◽  
Ichiro Iwanaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Significant Difference

598 Background: Cmab and Pmab have antitumor activity and acceptable safety profiles in patients (pts) with mCRC. Although IRI-based chemotherapy combined with Cmab or Pmab has demonstrated the effectiveness in salvage-line, there has been no reported trials comparing these antibodies directly. Methods: Data of 96 pts with mCRC treated by Cmab plus IRI-based chemotherapy (Cmab/IRI) from HGCSG 0901 and 27 pts treated by Pmab plus IRI-based chemotherapy (Pmab/IRI) from HGCSG1002 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients with KRAS wild type were refractory to or intolerant for 5-FU/ irinotecan/ oxaliplatin and also were never administered anti-EGFR-antibodies. Survival analyses were performed with Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Patient characteristics were as below (Cmab/IRI vs. Pmab/IRI); male/female 58/38 vs. 16/11, median age (range) 63(38-80) vs. 64(49-81), PS 0/1/2 52/35/9 vs. 21/6/0, number of metastatic organs 1/2/3- 29/37/30 vs. 6/12/7, prior bevacizumab administration 62.5% vs. 92.6% (p = 0.002). MST was 9.9 months in the Cmab/IRI and 14.9 months in the Pmab/IRI (p = 0.196). PFS was 4.8 months in the Cmab/IRI, as compared with 5.4 months in the Pmab (p = 0.083); the corresponding RR was 25.0 % and 18.5% (p = 0.611). After adjusting other prognostic factors with Cox proportional hazard model, the administration of Cmab/Pmab made significant difference neither for OS (HR 0.908, 95% CI 0.513-1.610, p = 0.742), nor PFS (HR 0.732, 95% CI 0.447-1.199, p = 0.732). Conclusions: In this integration analysis of two studies, there were no significant difference in efficacy between Cmab and Pmab with IRI-based chemotherapy in the salvage-line treatment of pts with mCRC.

scholarly journals 48. Time Between Viral Loads for Suppressed and Non-Suppressed People with HIV During the COVID-19 Pandemic Compared to Pre-Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S34-S35
Author(s):  
Walid El-Nahal ◽  
Nicola Shen ◽  
Catherine Lesko ◽  
Anthony Fojo ◽  
Bryan Lau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Heroin Use ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients at the John G. Bartlett Specialty practice experienced disruptions in viral load (VL) monitoring due to 1) conversion to telemedicine visits and 2) closure of the onsite lab from March 16-July 13, 2021. We described the impact of the pandemic on VL monitoring. Methods We measured time from all index VLs collected during 3 periods: January 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020 (pre-pandemic); March 16 to July 12, 2020 (pandemic, closed onsite lab); and July 13 to December 31, 2020 (pandemic, open onsite lab) until a subsequent VL, 1 year after the index VL, or administrative censoring on December 31, 2020, whichever came first. We classified follow-up time according to these periods (treating period as a time-varying variable). We report hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) from a Cox proportional hazards model comparing the hazard of a VL during the pandemic periods to the pre-pandemic period, stratified by whether the index VL was suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). We tested for interactions between patient characteristics (age, sex at birth, race, ethnicity, and recent substance use) and period, to investigate differential effects of the pandemic on delayed VL. Results After 7,760 suppressed VL measurements, median times to subsequent VL during the pre-pandemic, pandemic (closed lab) and pandemic (open lab) periods, were 4.6 (HR=1.0), 8.9 (HR=0.34, CI:0.30, 0.37), and 5.8 (HR=0.73, CI:0.68,0.78) months respectively. After 1,025 non-suppressed VL measurements, median times to subsequent VL were 2.0 (HR=1.0), 3.9 (HR=0.57, CI:0.42,0.79), and 2.1 (HR=0.92, CI:0.76,1.10) months respectively. Time to subsequent VL after an index suppressed VL was less affected by the pandemic for patients who are white; had private insurance; or had no recent cocaine or heroin use. The effect of the pandemic on time to subsequent VL after a non-suppressed index VL did not significantly differ across patient characteristics. Conclusion Onsite lab closure disrupted VL collection for all groups. Once the onsite lab opened, the pandemic period was still associated with a delay among suppressed patients, but not non-suppressed patients. Further studies are needed to investigate if these delays are associated with lapses in viral suppression. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

scholarly journals Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Differentiation Factor ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p &lt;.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

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