scholarly journals A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict

2021 ◽  
pp. 000-000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Mihai Croicu ◽  
Hanne Fjelde ◽  
Nina von Uexkull
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Conditional Model ◽  
Income Shock

Metamorphoses of memory of the the Russian-Serbian Brotherhood of War in Modern Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-156
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Timofeev
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Party System ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Second World

The article considers the perception of World War II in modern Serbian society. Despite the stability of Serbian-Russian shared historical memory, the attitudes of both countries towards World wars differ. There is a huge contrast in the perception of the First and Second World War in Russian and Serbian societies. For the Serbs the events of World War II are obscured by the memories of the Civil War, which broke out in the country immediately after the occupation in 1941 and continued several years after 1945. Over 70% of Yugoslavs killed during the Second World War were slaughtered by the citizens of former Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The terror unleashed by Tito in the first postwar decade in 1944-1954 was proportionally bloodier than Stalin repressions in the postwar USSR. The number of emigrants from Yugoslavia after the establishment of the Tito's dictatorship was proportionally equal to the number of refugees from Russia after the Civil War (1,5-2% of prewar population). In the post-war years, open manipulations with the obvious facts of World War II took place in Tito's Yugoslavia. In the 1990s the memories repressed during the communist years were set free and publicly debated. After the fall of the one-party system the memory of World War II was devalued. The memory of the Russian-Serbian military fraternity forged during the World War II began to revive in Serbia due to the foreign policy changes in 2008. In October 2008 the President of Russia paid a visit to Serbia which began the process of (re) construction of World War II in Serbian historical memory. According to the public opinion surveys, a positive attitude towards Russia and Russians in Serbia strengthens the memories on general resistance to Nazism with memories of fratricide during the civil conflict events of 1941-1945 still dominating in Serbian society.

The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P. Cincotta ◽  
Robert Engelman ◽  
Daniele Anastasion
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
The Cold War

Radical Moderation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas I. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Michel De Montaigne ◽  
Dual Roles

Renaissance theories of diplomacy seek to address the tension between the ambassador’s dual roles as mediator between princes and representative of one prince exclusively. Michel de Montaigne transposes this concern onto the question of how to negotiate the resolution of civil conflict when one is a partisan within the conflict. In his view, moderation is the capacity that this activity demands. This is a deeply paradoxical virtue: if one is to be moderate and not overly hostile toward all signs of partisanship, one must retain some contact with partisan extremes. Montaigne argues that one should handle this paradox by acknowledging the customary, habitual aspects of one’s partisan attachments, so that one may affirm them without incapacitating oneself politically. The chapter then compares Montaigne’s conception of moderation with William Connolly’s conception of “bicameral citizenship,” which also seeks to enable non-incapacitating partisanship.

Popular Resource Sovereignty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leif Wenar
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Popular Sovereignty ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
The People ◽  
Rich Countries

Article 1 of both of the major human rights covenants declares that the people of each country “shall freely dispose of their natural wealth and resources.” This chapter considers what conditions would have to hold for the people of a country to exercise this right—and why public accountability over natural resources is the only realistic solution to the “resource curse,” which makes resource-rich countries more prone to authoritarianism, civil conflict, and large-scale corruption. It also discusses why cosmopolitans, who have often been highly critical of prerogatives of state sovereignty, have good reason to endorse popular sovereignty over natural resources. Those who hope for more cosmopolitan institutions should see strengthening popular resource sovereignty as the most responsible path to achieving their own goals.

Peace Above the Glass Ceiling: The Historical Relationship between Female Political Empowerment and Civil Conflict

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 879-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sirianne Dahlum ◽  
Tore Wig
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Political Empowerment ◽  
Strong Link ◽  
Participation Of Women ◽  
Historical Relationship ◽  
Global Data

Abstract We investigate whether female political empowerment is conducive to civil peace, drawing on global data on female political empowerment over a 200-year period, from the Varieties of Democracy database. We augment previous research by expanding the temporal scope, looking at a novel inventory of female political empowerment measures, attending to reverse-causality and omitted variable issues, and separating between relevant causal mechanisms. We find a strong link between female political empowerment and civil peace, which is particularly pronounced in the twentieth century. We find evidence that this relationship is driven both by women’s political participation—particularly the bottom-up political participation of women, e.g., in civil society—and the culture that conduces it. This is the strongest evidence to date that there is a robust link between female political empowerment and civil peace, stemming from both institutional and cultural mechanisms.

scholarly journals Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
GRAEME BLAIR ◽  
DARIN CHRISTENSEN ◽  
AARON RUDKIN
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks

Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.

scholarly journals Role of International Trade Competitive Advantage and Corporate Governance Quality in Predicting Equity Returns: Static and Conditional Model Proposals for an Emerging Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Erol Muzir ◽  
Cevdet Kizil ◽  
Burak Ceylan
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Static Model ◽  
Conditional Model ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Governance Quality ◽  
Corporate Governance Quality

This paper aims to develop some static and conditional (dynamic) models to predict portfolio returns in the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) that are calibrated to combine the capital asset-pricing model (CAPM) and corporate governance quality. In our conditional model proposals, both the traditional CAPM (beta) coefficient and model constant are allowed to vary on a binary basis with any degradation or improvement in the country’s international trade competitiveness, and meanwhile a new variable is added to the models to represent the portfolio’s sensitivity to excess returns on the governance portfolio (BIST Governance) over the market. Some robust and Bayesian linear models have been derived using the monthly capital gains between December 2009 and December 2019 of four leading index portfolios. A crude measure is then introduced that we think can be used in assessing governance quality of portfolios. This is called governance quality score (GQS). Our robust regression findings suggest both superiority of conditional models assuming varying beta coefficients over static model proposals and significant impact of corporate governance quality on portfolio returns. The Bayesian model proposals, however, exhibited robust findings that favor the static model with fixed beta estimates and were lacking in supporting significance of corporate governance quality.

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