The Real Thing: A Dynamic Profile of The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in The United Kingdom, 1982-89

1990 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 373 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Thomas Woodward
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Real Thing ◽  
The Real ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Dynamic Profile

scholarly journals HOW DOES MONETARY POLICY CHANGE? EVIDENCE ON INFLATION-TARGETING COUNTRIES

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromír Baxa ◽  
Roman Horváth ◽  
Bořek Vašíček
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Endogenous Regressors

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation-targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), applying a moment-based estimator in a time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. From this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually, pointing to the importance of applying a time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest-rate smoothing parameter is much lower than typically reported by previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules. External factors matter for all countries, although the importance of the exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates to inflation is particularly strong during periods when central bankers want to break a record of high inflation, such as in the United Kingdom or Australia at the beginning of the 1980s. Contrary to common perceptions, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting, suggesting a positive anchoring effect of this regime on inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals A New Approach to Gauging Inflation Expectations

2009 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Joseph G. Haubrich
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
New Method ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Inflation Risk Premium

This Economic Commentary explains a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations, real interest rates, and an inflation-risk premium. It provides estimates of expected inflation from one month to 30 years, an estimate of the inflation-risk premium, and a measure of real interest rates, particularly a short (one-month) rate, which is not readily available from the TIPS market. Calculations using the method suggest that longer-term inflation expectations remain near historic lows. Furthermore, the inflation-risk premium is also low, which in the model means that inflation is not expected to deviate far from expectations.

scholarly journals Investment Decision In Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Indonesia*

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
The Real ◽  
Internal Capital ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study are: First, to analyze is there any significant influence among debt ratio, internal capital, cash flow, inflation expectations and the expectations of rupiah exchange rate against the decisions of businessmen in the real sector to invest or not to invest; Second, to analyze the impact of the variables perception mortgage interest rates, perceptions of bank regulation, internal capital and cash flow on debt ratio of the real sector (leverage). Investment decision model is estimated using logit models. The results of regression estimates the overall good for business and risk analysis for financial risk shows that almost all explanatory variables in the equation are statistically significant. There are three variables have a positive influence on the investment decisions taken by the businesses i.e. the debt ratio, cash flow and exchange rate expectations.

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