Temporal and causal order effects in thinking about what might have been

2002 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1295-1305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana Segura ◽  
Pablo Fernandez-Berrocal ◽  
Ruth M. J. Byrne

When people think counterfactually about what might have been different for a sequence of events, they are influenced by the order in which the events occurred. They tend to mentally undo the most recent event in a temporal sequence of two events. But they tend to mentally undo the first event in a causal sequence of four events. We report the results of two experiments that show that the temporal and causal order effects are not dependent on the number of events in the sequence. Our first experiment, with 300 participants, shows that the temporal order effect occurs for sequences with four events as well as for sequences with two events. Our second experiment, with 372 participants, shows that the causal order effect occurs for sequences with two events as well as for sequences with four events. We discuss the results in terms of the mental representations that people construct of temporal and causal sequences.

2007 ◽  
Vol 30 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 439-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth M. J. Byrne

AbstractThe human imagination remains one of the last uncharted terrains of the mind. People often imagine how events might have turned out “if only” something had been different. The “fault lines” of reality, those aspects more readily changed, indicate that counterfactual thoughts are guided by the same principles as rational thoughts. In the past, rationality and imagination have been viewed as opposites. But research has shown that rational thought is more imaginative than cognitive scientists had supposed. InThe Rational Imagination,I argue that imaginative thought is more rational than scientists have imagined. People exhibit remarkable similarities in the sorts of things they change in their mental representation of reality when they imagine how the facts could have turned out differently. For example, they tend to imagine alternatives to actions rather than inactions, events within their control rather than those beyond their control, and socially unacceptable events rather than acceptable ones. Their thoughts about how an event might have turned out differently lead them to judge that a strong causal relation exists between an antecedent event and the outcome, and their thoughts about how an event might have turned out the same lead them to judge that a weaker causal relation exists. In a simple temporal sequence, people tend to imagine alternatives to the most recent event. The central claim in the book is that counterfactual thoughts are organised along the same principles as rational thought. The idea that the counterfactual imagination is rational depends on three steps: (1) humans are capable of rational thought; (2) they make inferences by thinking about possibilities; and (3) their counterfactual thoughts rely on thinking about possibilities, just as rational thoughts do. The sorts of possibilities that people envisage explain the mutability of certain aspects of mental representations and the immutability of other aspects.


1990 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol L. Krumhansl

Four issues raised by Butler's (1989) commentary are addressed. The first issue is the possibility that the results of perceptual studies of tonal hierarchies can be attributed to task-specific strategies developed in response to particular stimuli. Such strategies cannot account for the convergence across experiments employing varied tasks and stimulus materials. The second issue is the correspondence between statistical summaries of music and perceptual data. The correspondence is shown to be quite general and to have implications for the acquisition of tonal knowledge. The third issue is the process listeners use to identify the tonal center. Patternmatching to tonal hierarchies is shown to be a plausible process contributing to key-finding, whereas a tritone rule has limited applicability. The final issue is the effect of temporal order on pitch perception. Principled temporal-order effects are found in many psychological experiments, but not in those focusing on the tritone relation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Hanayik ◽  
Grigori Yourganov ◽  
Roger Newman-Norlund ◽  
Makayla Gibson ◽  
Chris Rorden

In everyday life, we often make judgments regarding the sequence of events, for example, deciding whether a baseball runner's foot hit the plate before or after the ball hit the glove. Numerous studies have examined the functional correlates of temporal processing using variations of the temporal order judgment and simultaneity judgment (SJ) tasks. To perform temporal order judgment tasks, observers must bind temporal information with identity and/or spatial information relevant to the task itself. SJs, on the other hand, require observers to detect stimulus asynchrony but not the order of stimulus presentation and represent a purer measure of temporal processing. Some previous studies suggest that these temporal decisions rely primarily on right-hemisphere parietal structures, whereas others provide evidence that temporal perception depends on bilateral TPJ or inferior frontal regions (inferior frontal gyrus). Here, we report brain activity elicited by a visual SJ task. Our methods are unique given our use of two orthogonal control conditions, discrimination of spatial orientation and color, which were used to control for brain activation associated with the classic dorsal (“where/how”) and ventral (“what”) visual pathways. Our neuroimaging experiment shows that performing the SJ task selectively activated a bilateral network in the parietal (TPJ) and frontal (inferior frontal gyrus) cortices. We argue that SJ tasks are a purer measure of temporal perception because they do not require observers to process either identity or spatial information, both of which may activate separate cognitive networks.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liane Gabora ◽  
Nicole Beckage

Reflexively Autocatalytic Foodset-generated (RAF) networks have been used to model the origins of evolutionary processes, both biological (the origin of life) and cultural (the origin of cumulative innovation). The RAF approach tags conceptual shifts with their source, making it uniquely suited to modelling how new ideas grow out of currently available knowledge, studying order effects, and tracking conceptual trajectories within (and across) individuals. Using RAF networks, we develop a step-by-step process model of conceptual change (i.e., the process by which a child becomes an active participant in cultural evolution), focusing on childrens’ mental models of the shape of the earth. Using results from (Vosniadou & Brewer, 1992), we model different trajectories from the flat earth model to the spherical earth model, as well as the impact of other factors, such as pretend play, on cognitive development. As RAFs increase in size and number, they begin to merge and form a maxRAF that bridges previously compartmentalized knowledge. The expanding maxRAF constrains and enables the scaffolding of new conceptual structure. Once most conceptual structure is subsumed by the maxRAF, the child can reliably frame new knowledge and experiences in terms of previous knowledge and experiences, and engage in recursive representational redescription, or abstract thought, at which point the conceptual network becomes a self-organizing structure. The approach distinguishes between mental representations acquired through social learning or individual learning (of existing information), and mental representations obtained through abstract thought (resulting in the generation of new information). We suggest that individual differences in reliance on these information sources culminates in different kinds of conceptual networks and concomitant learning trajectories. These differences may be amplified by differences in the proclivity to spontaneously tailor one’s mode of thought to the situation one is in by modulating the degree of divergence (versus convergence), abstractness (versus concreteness), and context-specificity. We discuss a potential role for the approach in the development of an overarching framework that integrates evolutionary and developmental approaches to cognition.


2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Burnette ◽  
Erin G. Piker ◽  
Dennis Frank-Ito

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine whether a significant order effect exists in the binaural bithermal caloric test. Method Fifteen volunteers (mean age = 24.3 years, range = 18–38 years) with no history of vestibular disorder, hearing loss, concussion, or neurological disease underwent caloric testing on 3 occasions. Irrigations were randomized using 8 possible order combinations. The parameters of interest included unilateral weakness, directional preponderance, total response from the right ear, and total response from the left ear. Results Order effects were analyzed using 2 methods. The first analysis was done looking at the 8 possible orders. We also had an a priori established hypothesis that the first irrigation tested would influence the calculation of unilateral weakness more than the other 3 irrigations. To test this hypothesis, the 8 orders were condensed into 4 order conditions based on the first irrigation. The effect of order was determined using analysis of variance tests. Although the first irrigation tended to be the largest, no significant effects were observed. Conclusions This experiment demonstrated that while there is great inter-individual and intra-individual variability in caloric test results, the order of irrigations had no significant effect in the test. Future studies may explore the effects of nonphysiological factors on test results.


2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Vriens ◽  
Guy Moors ◽  
John Gelissen ◽  
Jeroen K. Vermunt

Measuring values in sociological research sometimes involves the use of ranking data. A disadvantage of a ranking assignment is that the order in which the items are presented might influence the choice preferences of respondents regardless of the content being measured. The standard procedure to rule out such effects is to randomize the order of items across respondents. However, implementing this design may be impractical and the biasing impact of a response order effect cannot be evaluated. We use a latent choice factor (LCF) model that allows statistically controlling for response order effects. Furthermore, the model adequately deals with the known issue of ipsativity of ranking data. Applying this model to a Dutch survey on work values, we show that a primacy effect accounts for response order bias in item preferences. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness of the LCF model in modeling ranking data while taking into account particular response biases.


2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 857-862
Author(s):  
Qi Shi Zhou ◽  
Xu Hong Zhou ◽  
Li Ming Yang

Based on the structural characteristics that the distribution of mass and stiffness is symmetrical in staggered truss structure, the load-carrying performance of staggered truss structure is equivalent to a pressure-bend combinational strut in this paper. By analyzing the relationship among curvatures , bending moments and shear forces of the pressure-bend combinational strut, the balance differential equations of the pressure-bend combinational strut is erected. Based on Runge-Kutta method, the lateral iteration equation derived by considering the influence of the second-order effects is derived. This paper analyzes the lateral displacements of floors of the staggered truss structure examples considering second-order effects or not, and gives a comparative analysis with the existing finite element software Ansys. The results show that the calculation method of second-order effects proposed in this paper has a good precision.


Second order or ‘cross’ effects arise as a result of quadratic terms in the constitutive equations of isotropic elastic, viscous and viscoelastic media, which are required by the condition of tensor invariance of those relations. The most pronounced second order effects arise when these are clearly separable from the first order deformation, as in the case of second order elongation and volume change of an elastic cylinder subject to a twisting moment, or of second order normal stress in the case of shear flow of polymeric liquids. The recent I. U. T. A. M. Conference on Second Order Effects (Pergamon Press, London, 1964) was mainly concerned with these two phenomena. The paper discusses second order effects in dissipative (viscoelastic, plastic and strain ­ hardening) solids and reports the results of experiments in which these effects were observed. While the experiments on elastomers confirm the Rivlin-Ericksen theory of those effects in viscoelastic media, the existence of a new accumulating second order effect has been discovered by experiments on aluminium specimens in reversed torsion (Ronay 1965). This effect, which has not been observed before, is probably responsible for the rapid acceleration of tensile creep in metals by small amplitudes of reversed torsion. While the second order effects in elastic solids vanish at zero strain since they are reversible, and vanish at zero velocity in polymeric fluids, they accumulate with the number of repeated torsion cycles in strain-hardening media. Hence their observation is very simple and does not require the elaborate procedures necessary for the observation of second order effects in elastic solids and viscous fluids. The theory of accumulating second order effects in strain-hardening media is developed; the linearity of the interaction between tensile load and torsion amplitude is demonstrated by the experiments.


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