Adjustment of lamb birth and weaning weights for continuous effects of ewe age

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 241-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Notter ◽  
R. C. Borg ◽  
L. A. Kuehn

AbstractProcedures for continuous adjustment of lamb birth and weaning weights for effects of ewe age were developed using 18 747 birth and 13 139 weaning weight records of Polypay sheep enrolled in the US National Sheep Improvement Program. Changes in birth and weaning weights across ewe age groups were modelled using hybrid curves that combined asymptotic regression models to describe initial increases in lamb weight as ewes moved into adulthood with secondorder polynomials to describe declines in lamb weights in older ewes. Lamb birth and weaning weights were highest (and the asymptotic and polynomial forms comprising the hybrid curves intersected) at ewe ages of 76 and 52 months, respectively. Across all ewe ages, hybrid curves were superior to second- and third-order polynomials in goodness of fit, producing a parabolic form with a flat top and different decay rates on either side of the ewe ages corresponding to maximum lamb weights. Fourth- and fifth-degree polynomials were equivalent to hybrid curves in goodness of fit, but generally did not produce reasonable predictions for the oldest ewes. Adjustment factors derived from the hybrid curve predicted that lamb birth weight would increase from 76% of maximum in 11-month-old ewes to 90 and 96% of maximum in 24- and 36-month-old ewes, respectively, and then decline to 97% of maximum at 105 months. For weaning weight, 83, 95, 99, and 93% of maximum lamb weight were attained at ewe ages of 11, 24, 36, and 105 months, respectively. Resulting multiplicative adjustment factors avoid discontinuities at boundaries between ewe age categories and are particularly useful in accelerated or other multiple-season lambing systems.

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M F Kragh ◽  
J T Lassen ◽  
J Rimestad ◽  
J Berntsen

Abstract Study question Do AI models for embryo selection provide actual implantation probabilities that generalise across clinics and patient demographics? Summary answer AI models need to be calibrated on representative data before providing reasonable agreements between predicted scores and actual implantation probabilities. What is known already AI models have been shown to perform well at discriminating embryos according to implantation likelihood, measured by area under curve (AUC). However, discrimination performance does not relate to how models perform with regards to predicting actual implantation likelihood, especially across clinics and patient demographics. In general, prediction models must be calibrated on representative data to provide meaningful probabilities. Calibration can be evaluated and summarised by “expected calibration error” (ECE) on score deciles and tested for significant lack of calibration using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. ECE describes the average deviation between predicted probabilities and observed implantation rates and is 0 for perfect calibration. Study design, size, duration Time-lapse embryo videos from 18 clinics were used to develop AI models for prediction of fetal heartbeat (FHB). Model generalisation was evaluated on clinic hold-out models for the three largest clinics. Calibration curves were used to evaluate the agreement between AI-predicted scores and observed FHB outcome and summarised by ECE. Models were evaluated 1) without calibration, 2) calibration (Platt scaling) on other clinics’ data, and 3) calibration on the clinic’s own data (30%/70% for calibration/evaluation). Participants/materials, setting, methods A previously described AI algorithm, iDAScore, based on 115,842 time-lapse sequences of embryos, including 14,644 transferred embryos with known implantation data (KID), was used as foundation for training hold-out AI models for the three largest clinics (n = 2,829;2,673;1,327 KID embryos), such that their data were not included during model training. ECEs across the three clinics (mean±SD) were compared for models with/without calibration using KID embryos only, both overall and within subgroups of patient age (<36,36-40,>40 years). Main results and the role of chance The AUC across the three clinics was 0.675±0.041 (mean±SD) and unaffected by calibration. Without calibration, overall ECE was 0.223±0.057, indicating weak agreements between scores and actual implantation rates. With calibration on other clinics’ data, overall ECE was 0.040±0.013, indicating considerable improvements with moderate clinical variation. As implantation probabilities are both affected by clinical practice and patient demographics, subgroup analysis was conducted on patient age (<36,36-40,>40 years). With calibration on other clinics’ data, age-group ECEs were (0.129±0.055 vs. 0.078±0.033 vs. 0.072±0.015). These calibration errors were thus larger than the overall average ECE of 0.040, indicating poor generalisation across age. Including age as input to the calibration, age-group ECEs were (0.088±0.042 vs. 0.075±0.046 vs. 0.051±0.025), indicating improved agreements between scores and implantation rates across both clinics and age groups. With calibration including age on the clinic’s own data, however, the best calibrations were obtained with ECEs (0.060±0.017 vs. 0.040±0.010 vs. 0.039±0.009). The results indicate that both clinical practice and patient demographics influence calibration and thus ideally should be adjusted for. Testing lack of calibration using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, only one age-group from one clinic appeared miscalibrated (P = 0.02), whereas all other age-groups from the three clinics were appropriately calibrated (P > 0.10). Limitations, reasons for caution In this study, AI model calibration was conducted based on clinic and age. Other patient metadata such as BMI and patient diagnosis may be relevant to calibrate as well. However, for both calibration and evaluation on the clinic’s own data, a substantiate amount of data for each subgroup is needed. Wider implications of the findings With calibrated scores, AI models can predict actual implantation likelihood for each embryo. Probability estimates are a strong tool for patient communication and clinical decisions such as deciding when to discard/freeze embryos. Model calibration may thus be the next step in improving clinical outcome and shortening time to live birth. Trial registration number This work is partly funded by the Innovation Fund Denmark (IFD) under File No. 7039-00068B and partly funded by Vitrolife A/S


2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Noah

Chickenpox is now one of the last of the infectious diseases of childhood that remain mostly uncontrolled. An effective vaccine has been available for many years but has not been used for routine immunisation in many countries. This is because the effect of giving the vaccine in early life on the subsequent development of herpes zoster is not known; high immunisation rates are important to ensure that the age distribution does not shift towards older age groups in whom the disease is more serious; and the disease is generally considered innocuous, especially in childhood when about 95% of infections occur.


Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (Suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 915-915
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Changchuan Jiang ◽  
Yaning Zhang ◽  
Stuthi Perimbeti ◽  
Prateeth Pati ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction: Previous studies have shown that uninsured and Medicaid patients had higher morbidity and mortality due to limited access to healthcare. Disparities in cancer-related treatment and survival outcome by different insurance have been well established (Celie et al. J Surg Oncol.,2017). There are approximately 8,260 newly diagnosed HL cases in the US yearly (Master et al. Anticancer Res.2017). Therefore, we aim to investigate the variation of survival outcome and insurance status among HL patients. Methods: We extracted data from the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 program. HL patients who were diagnosed from 2007-2014 were included. Demographic information including age, sex, race, annual household income, education and insurance were also collected. Insurance includes uninsured, insured and any Medicaid. Race/ethnicity includes white, black and other (including American Indian/AK native, Asian/Pacific Islander). HL is categorized by using International Classification of Disease for Oncology (ICD-O-3) into classical HL NOS (CHL NOS), nodular lymphocyte predominant HL (NLP), lymphocyte rich (LR), mixed cellularity (MC), lymphocyte depleted (LD), and nodular sclerosis (NS). Treatment modality included RT alone, CT alone, RT and CT combined, and no RT or CT. Survival time was estimated by using the date of diagnosis and one of the following dates: date of death, date last known to be alive or date of the study cutoff (December 31, 2014). Chi-square test and multivariate Cox regression were performed by using SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA). Exclusion criteria include: 1) patients with unknown or unspecified race; 2) patients who survived less than 6 months because time of radiotherapy/chemotherapy was not known to the time of diagnosis; 3) patients with any other type of cancer prior to the diagnosis of HL; 4) patients with second or later primaries, and who were not actively followed. Results: A total of 14.286 HL patients were included in the analysis. Table 1 indicates the insurance status and demographic and tumor characteristics among HL patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2014. Patients with black race, male sex, and B symptoms were more likely to be uninsured and on any Medicaid compared to other races, female sex and without B symptoms (p<0.01). As stage of disease increased, the percentage of insured patients decreased from 82.0% to 71.7%, (p<0.01). As with year of diagnosis advanced, the percentage of uninsured did not appear to be changed however the proportion of both those with insurance and any Medicaid decreased slightly by 2.4% (p<0.01). Those who received RT only were most likely to have insurance (89.6%) followed by combination modality (80.1%). As expected, uninsured status was associated with lower income and education level (p<0.01). Table 2 shows the insurance and hazard ratio among HL patients by year of diagnosis adjusting for race, sex, histology type, income, education, and year of diagnosis. Any Medicaid patients had the highest HR of death from 2007-2010 compared to insured patients. Without insurance was also associated with increased risk of death but only significant in 2008, HR=2.26, 95% CI (1.35, 3.80). The survival outcomes comparing different insurance status by age groups (<=29 and 30-64) were demonstrated in Kaplan-Meier Curve. In the age 29 or less group, insured patient showed has the best survival outcome followed by any Medicaid and then the uninsured. In the age 30-64 group, Medicaid patients had the worst survival outcome compared to those with or without insurance. Conclusion: Insurance status is one of the most important contributors of health disparity, especially in malignancy given the significant financial toxicity of therapies. We found that the proportion of the uninsured was trending up before the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Regarding the HL outcome, insured patients had the best survival across all age groups even though not significantly while Medicaid patients had the worst outcomes in almost all age groups, even worse than the uninsured after adjusting for the disease stage at diagnosis and sociodemographic factors. It would be of interest to explore the reason behind Medicaid patients' relatively poor outcomes. Future studies may also investigate how ACA, Medicaid expansion, and the possible upcoming republican healthcare reform influence HL outcome. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Author(s):  
Edward Goldstein

Abstract Background Antibiotic use contributes to the rates of bacteremia, sepsis and associated mortality, particularly through lack of clearance of resistant infections following antibiotic treatment. At the same time, there is limited information on the effects of prescribing of some antibiotics vs. others on the rates of outcomes related to severe bacterial infections. Methods We looked at associations between the proportions (state-specific in the US; Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG)-specific in England) of different antibiotic types/classes among all prescribed antibiotics in the outpatient setting (oral antibiotics in the US), and rates of outcomes (mortality with sepsis, ICD-10 codes A40-41 present as either underlying or contributing causes of death on a death certificate in different age groups of US adults; E. coli as well as MSSA bacteremia in England) per unit of antibiotic prescribing (defined as the rate of outcome divided by the rate of outpatient prescribing of all antibiotics). Results In the US, prescribing of penicillins was associated with rates of mortality with sepsis for persons aged 75-84y and 85+y between 2014-2015. In England, prescribing of penicillins other than amoxicillin/co-amoxiclav was associated with rates of both MSSA and E. coli bacteremia for the period between financial years 2014/15 through 2017/18. Additionally, multivariable analysis for the US data has also shown an association between the percent of individuals aged 50-64y lacking health insurance, as well as the percent of individuals aged 65-84y who are African-American and rates of mortality with sepsis in the corresponding age groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that prescribing of penicillins is associated with rates of E. coli and MSSA bacteremia in England, and rates of mortality with sepsis in older US adults. Those results, as well as the related epidemiological data suggest that replacement of certain antibiotics, particularly penicillins in the treatment of certain syndromes should be considered for reducing the rates of outcomes related to severe bacterial infections.


1990 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 963-965
Author(s):  
J. C. OLTHOFF ◽  
G. H. CROW ◽  
G. W. RAHNEFELD

Lines within a breed which differ in their level of performance may require different age-of-dam adjustment factors in the same way that different breeds do. Age-of-dam adjustments calculated from a control and a yearling weight selection line indicated lower values in the selected line for calf birth weight, weaning weight and yearling weight for 2- and 4-yr-old dams. Trends for adjustment factors in each line over time were generally not significant but tended to diverge. Age-of-dam adjustment factors within a breed may need to be reevaluated at intervals as levels of performance change. Key words: Beef cattle, age of dam adjustment, selection, yearling weight


2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-213754
Author(s):  
Heontae Kim ◽  
Chao Cao ◽  
Igor Grabovac ◽  
Guillermo F López Sánchez ◽  
Benny Rana ◽  
...  

BackgroundImmigrants are at a higher risk of poor mental and physical health. Regular participation in physical activity (PA) and low levels of sedentary time are beneficial for both these aspects of health. The aim was to investigate levels and trends in domain-specific PA and sedentary behaviour in the US. immigrant compared with non-immigrant populations.MethodsFrom the 2007–2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a total of 25 142 adults (≥18 years) were included in this analysis. PA and sedentary behaviour time were assessed by a questionnaire.ResultsTransit-related PA showed downward linear trends in young immigrant adults (ptrend=0.006) and middle-aged non-immigrant adults (ptrend=0.009). We found significant upward linear trends in sedentary behaviour for both immigrants and non-immigrants across all age groups. For sitting watching TV or videos ≥2 hours/day, there was a downward linear trend in young immigrant adults (ptrend=0.009). For computer use ≥1 hours/day, an upward linear trend in older non-immigrants was found (ptrend=0.024). Young immigrants spent 37.5 (95% CI −55.4 to −19.6) min less than non-immigrants on recreational PA per week. Also, older immigrants spent 23.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 45.6) and 22.5 (95% CI 5.9 to 39.0) min/week more than non-immigrants on recreational PA and transit-related PA, respectively. Last, young and middle-aged immigrants spent 37.6 (95% CI −68.2 to −7.0) and 37.6 (95% CI −99.7 to −9.7) min/day less than non-immigrants on sedentary behaviour, respectively.ConclusionOverall, levels of recreational PA were stable, yet the transit-related PA declined coupled with an increase in sedentary behaviour. US. immigrants exhibit higher levels of transit-PA, lower levels of leisure-time PA and lower levels of sedentary behaviour, in some age groups.


2019 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 1088-1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine M Pfeiffer ◽  
Maya R Sternberg ◽  
Mindy Zhang ◽  
Zia Fazili ◽  
Renee J Storandt ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Background Enriched cereal-grain products have been fortified in the United States for >20 y to improve folate status in women of reproductive age and reduce the risk of folic acid–responsive neural tube birth defects (NTDs). Objectives Our objectives were to assess postfortification changes in folate status in the overall US population and in women aged 12–49 y and to characterize recent folate status by demographic group and use of folic acid–containing supplements. Methods We examined cross-sectional serum and RBC folate data from the NHANES 1999–2016. Results Serum folate geometric means increased from 2007–2010 to 2011–2016 in persons aged ≥1 y (38.7 compared with 40.6 nmol/L) and in women (35.3 compared with 37.0 nmol/L), whereas RBC folate showed no significant change. Younger age groups, men, and Hispanic persons showed increased serum and RBC folate concentrations, whereas non-Hispanic black persons and supplement nonusers showed increased serum folate concentrations. The folate insufficiency prevalence (RBC folate <748 nmol/L; NTD risk) in women decreased from 2007–2010 (23.2%) to 2011–2016 (18.6%) overall and in some subgroups (e.g., women aged 20–39 y, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black women, and supplement nonusers). After covariate adjustment, RBC folate was significantly lower in all age groups (by ∼10–20%) compared with persons aged ≥60 y and in Hispanic (by 8.2%), non-Hispanic Asian (by 12.1%), and non-Hispanic black (by 20.5%) compared with non-Hispanic white women (2011–2016). The 90th percentile for serum (∼70 nmol/L) and RBC (∼1800 nmol/L) folate in supplement nonusers aged ≥60 y was similar to the geometric mean in users (2011–2014). Conclusions Blood folate concentrations in the US population overall and in women have not decreased recently, and folate insufficiency rates are ∼20%. Continued monitoring of all age groups is advisable given the high folate status particularly in older supplement users.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S569-S569
Author(s):  
Gregory A Winchell ◽  
Rik de Greef ◽  
Rebecca E Wrishko ◽  
Eric Mangin ◽  
Hetty Waskin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Posaconazole is approved in adults for prophylaxis and treatment of invasive fungal disease. Two formulations that offer weight-based dosing—intravenous (IV) and oral powder for suspension (PFS)—are being evaluated in children. A population pharmacokinetic (popPK) approach was used to characterize and predict the PK exposure of posaconazole PFS and IV formulations in children to identify dosages associated with achieving a target PK of 1200 ng/mL as the mean Cavg and individual Cavg ≥500 ng/mL and <2500 ng/mL in ~90% of patients. Methods A popPK model was developed through nonlinear mixed-effects modeling using data obtained from a trial in children with neutropenia (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02452034; Merck protocol, MK-5592-097). Three dose cohorts (3.5, 4.5, and 6 mg/kg/day [≤300 mg/day]) were studied in two age groups (2–<7 years and 7–17 years). Posaconazole IV was administered twice on day 1 then once daily through at least day 10, followed by PFS once daily through day 28 at clinician discretion. A compartmental model, including both formulations, was fit to the data. Model selection was based on the Log-Likelihood Criterion, goodness-of-fit plots, and scientific plausibility. Significance of the covariates was assessed in a stepwise forward inclusion/backward procedure. An additional assessment characterized the impact of different food covariates on bioavailability. Results An open one-compartmental PK model with first-order absorption and estimated bioavailability, as well as allometrically scaled effects of body weight on clearance and volume, adequately described the PK of posaconazole IV and PFS formulations. Model predictions are shown in the Table. Effects of the different food covariates were not statistically significant. Simulations indicated that for the 6-mg/kg/d dose, model-predicted Cavg generally met PK targets. Model-predicted Cavg was ≥500 ng/mL in >90% of subjects in all cohorts. The 1200-ng/mL target geometric mean Cavg was achieved for all but the 2–<7 years cohort receiving the PFS formulation. Conclusion This popPK-based analysis demonstrated that the 6-mg/kg/d dose of IV or PFS posaconazole formulation (≤300 mg/days) is appropriate for children (2–17 years) and that PFS can be administered without regard to food. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Arthur Arré ◽  
José Elivalto Guimarães Campelo ◽  
José Lindenberg Rocha Sarmento ◽  
Luiz Antônio Silva Figueiredo Filho ◽  
Diego Helcias Cavalcante

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to determine the optimum age at last weighing and compare the goodness of fit of nonlinear models used to fit longitudinal weight-age data to describe the growth pattern of Anglo-Nubian does. Weights of 104 animals from birth to 60 months of age were grouped into 10 age groups at six-month intervals. In each age group, parameters A (asymptotic weight), B (integration constant), and K (maturity index) were estimated using the Brody, Gompertz, logistic, and von Bertalanffy models. Data were analyzed using analysis of variance in a factorial design (10 age groups × 4 nonlinear models). The age group × model interaction was not significant. Mean estimates of A, B, and K were significantly different between age groups up to 30 months (p < 0.05), indicating that the estimated curve is affected by weights taken before this age independent of the model. The values of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), coefficient of determination (R2) and Rate of convergence (RC) at each age group up to 30 months were compared to determine the goodness of fit of nonlinear models. The ranking of fit was logistic, Brody, von Bertalanffy, and Gompertz. The logistic and Brody models respectively estimated the smallest and largest asymptotic weight. Longitudinal weight records taken until 30 months of age are most appropriate for estimating the growth of Anglo-Nubian does using nonlinear models.


Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 3755-3755
Author(s):  
Eiji Kusumi ◽  
Masahiro Kami ◽  
Midori Shoji ◽  
Shigeyuki Endou ◽  
Yukiko Kishi ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Anemia is common among young women. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHENES) revealed that the insufficient iron intake is one of the leading causes of anemia in the US. In Europe and the US, iron fortification of flour increased oral iron intake and decreased anemia prevalence from 30% to 10%. The National Nutrition Survey in Japan by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in 2002 revealed the estimated anemia prevalence of 19 %. Currently, no nationwide preventive policy aims at iron deficiency anemia. However, the prevalence of 19% was estimated based on 3,156 persons in the Survey. Objective The endpoint of this study was to estimate anemia prevalence among healthy Japanese woman based on a larger sample size. Method We collected data from consecutive check-up examination records of apparently healthy women in different age groups in Toranomon Hopital (between January 2002 and March 2005, n = 8,264) and Yuai Memorial Hospital (between February 1998 and February 2005, n = 5,153). We defined hemoglobin lower than 12 g/dL as anemia, hemoglobin lower than 10 g/dL as severe anemia, and mean corpuscular volume lower than 80 fl as microcytic anemia. Results The median age was 47 years (range, 11–87 years). Of the 13,147 persons, anemia was identified in 2,331 (17.3 %), and severe and microcytic anemia in 438 (3.3 %) and 700 (5.2 %), respectively. The prevalence of anemia and median hemoglobin values by age groups are shown in Figure. The median hemoglobin values tended to be lower in women of the age groups with high anemia prevalence. Conclusion The prevalence of anemia among women of child-bearing age and of working age is high in Japan. As the Japanese population is rapidly decreasing and aging, some action needs to be considered to improve quality of life during pregnancy and working efficiency. Figure Figure.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document