Predictive niche modelling to identify potential areas of conflicts between human activities and expanding predator populations: a case study of game management and the grey mongoose, Herpestes ichneumon, in Spain

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano R. Recio ◽  
Emilio Virgós
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Predator Control ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Potential Conflict ◽  
Abundance Index ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Game Hunting ◽  
Herpestes Ichneumon ◽  
Near Future

Context. The grey mongoose, Herpestes ichneumon L., is a protected species in Spain. Populations of grey mongoose are currently increasing in numbers, and potential conflicts with human interests involving predation of small-game species, may arise in the near future. Aims. We predicted potential suitable areas for the expansion of grey mongoose by using a niche modelling approach to detect areas of conflict with small-game hunting activities. Methods. We compared these areas with regions in which small-game hunting is an important economic activity. To produce a niche-suitability map we used Maxent and an internal (data-splitting) validation to assess the predictive performance of the model. Areas in which small-game hunting is important were identified by using a rabbit-abundance index. Key results. On the basis of suitability modelling, populations of grey mongoose will expand into southern and central Spain. The variables with higher predictive power are mainly climatic, although some mosaic habitat types are also important. Internal validation reveals a strong correspondence between predicted and observed records. The overlap of high-suitability areas with areas assigned with a high rabbit-abundance index indicated the existence of large regions of potential conflict with hunting interests. Conclusions. Predictions of niche modelling can be used to detect conflict areas between expanding species and human interests. As a consequence of the expansion of the grey mongoose, the incidence of non-selective predator control may increase, thereby posing a threat to other protected predators. Implications. Identified areas of likely conflict should be prioritised to delineate careful management programs in terms of people education, surveying, incentives and the detection of illegal predator-control activities.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a prediction model for fat mass in children and adolescents: meta-analysis using individual participant data

BMJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. l4293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed T Hudda ◽  
Mary S Fewtrell ◽  
Dalia Haroun ◽  
Sooky Lum ◽  
Jane E Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Fat Mass ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Individual Participant Data ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Individual Participant ◽  
Complex Forms

Abstract Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model for fat mass in children aged 4-15 years using routinely available risk factors of height, weight, and demographic information without the need for more complex forms of assessment. Design Individual participant data meta-analysis. Setting Four population based cross sectional studies and a fifth study for external validation, United Kingdom. Participants A pooled derivation dataset (four studies) of 2375 children and an external validation dataset of 176 children with complete data on anthropometric measurements and deuterium dilution assessments of fat mass. Main outcome measure Multivariable linear regression analysis, using backwards selection for inclusion of predictor variables and allowing non-linear relations, was used to develop a prediction model for fat-free mass (and subsequently fat mass by subtracting resulting estimates from weight) based on the four studies. Internal validation and then internal-external cross validation were used to examine overfitting and generalisability of the model’s predictive performance within the four development studies; external validation followed using the fifth dataset. Results Model derivation was based on a multi-ethnic population of 2375 children (47.8% boys, n=1136) aged 4-15 years. The final model containing predictor variables of height, weight, age, sex, and ethnicity had extremely high predictive ability (optimism adjusted R 2 : 94.8%, 95% confidence interval 94.4% to 95.2%) with excellent calibration of observed and predicted values. The internal validation showed minimal overfitting and good model generalisability, with excellent calibration and predictive performance. External validation in 176 children aged 11-12 years showed promising generalisability of the model (R 2 : 90.0%, 95% confidence interval 87.2% to 92.8%) with good calibration of observed and predicted fat mass (slope: 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.07). The mean difference between observed and predicted fat mass was −1.29 kg (95% confidence interval −1.62 to −0.96 kg). Conclusion The developed model accurately predicted levels of fat mass in children aged 4-15 years. The prediction model is based on simple anthropometric measures without the need for more complex forms of assessment and could improve the accuracy of assessments for body fatness in children (compared with those provided by body mass index) for effective surveillance, prevention, and management of clinical and public health obesity.

What does hunting market price reflect? The role of species, landscape and management

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 280 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Martinez-Jauregui ◽  
A. C. Herruzo ◽  
P. Campos
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Hedonic Price ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Hedonic Price Analysis ◽  
Hunting Bag ◽  
Game Hunting ◽  
Joint Consideration

Context Hunting transactions can be considered a composite good that includes various attributes or characteristics. Obtaining information regarding the utility derived from the different characteristics of the hunter’s bag might help elucidate the purchasing behaviour of hunters. This behaviour is, in turn, an important aspect to be considered by land managers in adaptive hunting management. Aims The present study attempts to identify the values given by hunters to species, landscape and management in the pricing of the hunter’s bag. Our analysis is focused on the hunting bag characteristics and adds to previous research the joint consideration of the amount and quality (sex, age classes and trophy) of various species in the hunter’s bag. Methods We use a dataset of 740 forest hunting estates at Andalucía (1 162 405 ha in the south of Spain) with an important mixed-species bag composition and where 225 game-hunting marketed transactions were declared by the hunting managers, including 13 541 hunting journeys. Hedonic-price analysis and mixed-effect models are used. Key results Our results showed that the composition of the harvested species (quantity and trophy of different species, sex and age classes), the activities related to harvesting and organisation of hunting events and landscape in hunting areas are relevant attributes in big-game market transactions. In small-game market transactions, species and landscape are the primary significant variables found. The latter variable plays a more important role in small game than in big game. Conclusions These findings indicated that hunting market values include, in addition to hunters’ recreational experience, ecological and management aspects with a broader social scope. Implications A further discussion regarding the possible conflict among hunter preferences, long-term game-management decisions and ecological goals is also provided.

Hunters' preferences and willingness to pay for driven hunts in southern Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (8) ◽  
pp. 649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Soliño ◽  
Begoña A. Farizo ◽  
Pablo Campos
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Wild Boar ◽  
Wildlife Management ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Free Range ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Marginal Willingness To Pay ◽  
Game Hunting ◽  
Big Game Hunting ◽  
Wild Boar Hunting

Context Driven hunts exemplify the most representative form of big-game hunting in southern Europe. Aims We analysed hunter preferences for driven hunts and the marginal willingness to pay for their characteristics. Methods We conducted a discrete-choice experiment for driven hunts, taking into account the number of deer that could be hunted, the possibility of free-range wild-boar hunting, the presence of trophies, and other characteristics of driven hunts, such as congestion and travel time. Key results The highest influential driven-hunt characteristic on the utility of big-game hunters is the presence of trophy specimens, whereas for the small-game hunter it would be free-range wild-boar hunting. Conclusions Small-game hunters are reluctant to participate in the big-game market because of cultural factors and not because of budgetary restrictions. Implications Wildlife management and marketing of driven hunts can be improved taking into account the hunter preferences.

A Moveable Feast: Variation in Faunal Resource Use among Central and Western North American Paleoindian Sites

2007 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Resource Use ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Prey Choice ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Low Diversity ◽  
Game Hunting ◽  
Site Types

In the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains of North America, researchers have debated the degree to which Paleoindian foragers relied on large-game hunting to fulfill their subsistence needs. This study reviews the zooarchaeological record from 60 sites to test predictions drawn from prey choice models. Results indicate that different site types provide different perspectives on Paleoindian faunal use. Data from kill assemblages can only inform on the exploitation of large game, while the full variety of prey used by Paleoindian foragers is represented at camp localities. In addition, prehistoric foragers varied prey choice based on habitat setting. In the low diversity grasslands of the High Plains and Rolling Hills, prehistoric groups hunted large game almost exclusively. In the more diverse environments of the alluvial valleys and foothill/mountain environments, foragers show higher diversity of faunal use. During the early Holocene, small game made a greater contribution in the diet of Paleoindians, possibly in response to changing environmental conditions and/or increased hunting pressure.

Prestige and Prejudice: The Role of Long Distance Big Game Hunting as an Optimal Foraging Decision

2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deanna N. Grimstead
Keyword(s):  
Central Place ◽  
Central Place Foraging ◽  
Economic Returns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Game Hunting ◽  
Big Game Hunting ◽  
Foraging Decision

AbstractSignaling theory has much to offer anthropology and archaeology, which is in part why there is an increasing number of applications and healthy debates surrounding how best to apply it. One of those debates surrounds whether big game hunting is a costly signal or simply an aspect of efficient foraging. Grimstead (2010) contributed to this debate by showing that long-distance big-game hunting (greater than 100 km roundtrip) produces higher caloric return rates than does local small-game hunting, despite increased costs of travel and transport for the former. Whittaker and Carpenter (this issue) present a model that also suggests long-distance big-game hunting produces higher economic returns than local foraging but only up to about 50 km. This paper provides further details on the tenets of the Grimstead (2010) paper in response to criticisms by Whittaker and Carpenter (this issue), and then uses a previously published central place foraging model (Cannon 2003) to show that another model also shows long-distance big-game hunting over a distance greater than 100 kilometers roundtrip produces higher returns than local foraging.

Antiquity of Communal Pronghorn Hunting in the North-Central Great Basin

2009 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Hockett ◽  
Timothy W. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Behavioral Variability ◽  
Antilocapra Americana ◽  
North Central ◽  
Projectile Points ◽  
Small Game ◽  
The North ◽  
Middle Archaic ◽  
Communal Hunting ◽  
Game Hunting

Communal hunting of small game such as hares has probably occurred for 10,000 years in the Great Basin. Ethnohistoric accounts of the nineteenth century indicate that indigenous peoples communally hunted large game (e.g., pronghorn, mountain sheep, deer, bison) across much of western North America including the Plains, desert Southwest, California, and Great Basin subregions, during and immediately preceding the contact era. Research in the Plains subregion suggests that communal large game hunting occurred there prior to the adoption of the bow-and-arrow between ca. 1,500 and 2,000 years ago, and in fact may have occurred as early as 9,000 to 10,000 years ago. Nineteenth- and early twentieth-century ethnohistoric accounts suggest that communal pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) hunts involving the construction of a corral with associated wings were utilized by many Great Basin peoples at the time of historic contact. This paper asks: (1) did communal pronghorn hunts occur prior to the Protohistoric Period (before ca. 600 ¹⁴C B.P.) in the north-central Great Basin? (2) if so, how ancient is this practice? and (3) did the methods or behaviors of the participants of these communal hunts vary through time? Detailed analysis of sites containing dozens, and in many cases, hundreds of projectile points that predate ca. 600 ¹⁴C B.P. found in or near existing juniper branch corrals and wings suggest that communal pronghorn hunting has occurred for at least 4,000 to 5,000 years in the north-central Great Basin. Further, behavioral variability is seen through time in the material remains of these communal hunts, with earlier (Middle Archaic) communal kills characterized by greater use of local toolstone sources, gearing-up just prior to the kill, and perhaps a greater reliance on shooting the trapped pronghorn rather than clubbing compared to Protohistoric communal kills.

Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of early response after neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer: Results from a prospective randomized study.

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 716-716
Author(s):  
Jianwei Zhang ◽  
Yue Cai ◽  
Huabin Hu ◽  
Ping Lan ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rectal Cancer ◽  
Randomized Study ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Pathologic Complete Response ◽  
Neoadjuvant Treatment ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Complete Response ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Preoperative Treatment ◽  
Internal Validation

716 Background: To establish a clinical nomogram with pretherapeutic parameters for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) and tumor downstaging after neoadjuvant treatment in patients with rectal cancer. Methods: From Jan 2011 to Feb 2015, complete data was available for 309 patients with rectal cancer who received concurrent chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy alone enrolled in FOWARC study. All pre-treatment clinical parameters were collected to build a nomogram for pCR and tumor down-staging. The model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation. The predictive performance of the model was assessed with concordance index (c-index) and calibration. Results: Of the 309 patients, 55 (17.8%) had achieved pCR, 138 (44.7%) patients were classified as good down-staging with ypTNM stage 0-I. Basing on the multivariate logistic regression and clinical consideration, 5 factors were identified to be the independent predictors for pCR and good downstaging, respectively (Table 1). The predictive nomograms were developed (fig 1 and 2) to predict the probability of pCR and good down-staging with a C-index of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.736-0.867) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.672-0.784). Calibration plots showed good performance on internal validation. Conclusions: The nomograms provide individual prediction of response to different preoperative treatment for patients with rectal cancer. This model may help physician in patient selection for optimized treatment. Further external validation is warranted. [Table: see text]

Lagoa Santa Revisited: An Overview of the Chronology, Subsistence, and Material Culture of Paleoindian Sites in Eastern Central Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 533-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Astolfo G. M. Araujo ◽  
Walter A. Neves ◽  
Renato Kipnis
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Material Culture ◽  
Cultural Patterns ◽  
Settlement Systems ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Game Hunting

AbstractLagoa Santa, a karstic area in eastern Central Brazil, has been subject to research on human paleontology and archaeology for 175 years. Almost 300 Paleoindian human skeletons have been found since Danish naturalist Peter Lund’s pioneering work. Even so, some critical issues such as the role of rockshelters in settlement systems, and the possible paleoclimatic implications of the peopling of the region have yet to be addressed. We present some results obtained from recent excavations at four rockshelters and two open-air sites, new dates for human Paleoindian skeletons, and a model to explain the cultural patterns observed so far. It is also argued that the Paleoindian subsistence system at Lagoa Santa was similar to other locations in South America: generalized small-game hunting complemented by fruits, seed, and root gathering.

scholarly journals Does hunters’ willingness to pay match the best hunting options for biodiversity conservation? A choice experiment application for small-game hunting in Spain

2014 ◽  
Vol 177 ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Delibes-Mateos ◽  
Marek Giergiczny ◽  
Jesús Caro ◽  
Javier Viñuela ◽  
Pere Riera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Small Game ◽  
Game Hunting
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