Modelling suppression difficulty: current and future applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez y Silva ◽  
Christopher D. O'Connor ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson ◽  
Juan Ramón Molina Martínez ◽  
David E. Calkin
Keyword(s):  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Informational Basis ◽  
Fire Containment ◽  
Difficulty Index ◽  
Made In

Improving decision processes and the informational basis upon which decisions are made in pursuit of safer and more effective fire response have become key priorities of the fire research community. One area of emphasis is bridging the gap between fire researchers and managers through development of application-focused, operationally relevant decision support tools. In this paper we focus on a family of such tools designed to characterise the difficulty of suppression operations by weighing suppression challenges against suppression opportunities. These tools integrate potential fire behaviour, vegetation cover types, topography, road and trail networks, existing fuel breaks and fireline production potential to map the operational effort necessary for fire suppression. We include case studies from two large fires in the USA and Spain to demonstrate model updates and improvements intended to better capture extreme fire behaviour and present results demonstrating successful fire containment where suppression difficulty index (SDI) values were low and containment only after a moderation of fire weather where SDI values were high. A basic aim of this work is reducing the uncertainty and increasing the efficiency of suppression operations through assessment of landscape conditions and incorporation of expert knowledge into planning.

Corrigendum to: Modelling suppression difficulty: current and future applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 752
Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez y Silva ◽  
Christopher D. O'Connor ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson ◽  
Juan Ramón Molina Martínez ◽  
David E. Calkin
Keyword(s):  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Informational Basis ◽  
Fire Containment ◽  
Difficulty Index ◽  
Made In

Improving decision processes and the informational basis upon which decisions are made in pursuit of safer and more effective fire response have become key priorities of the fire research community. One area of emphasis is bridging the gap between fire researchers and managers through development of application-focused, operationally relevant decision support tools. In this paper we focus on a family of such tools designed to characterise the difficulty of suppression operations by weighing suppression challenges against suppression opportunities. These tools integrate potential fire behaviour, vegetation cover types, topography, road and trail networks, existing fuel breaks and fireline production potential to map the operational effort necessary for fire suppression. We include case studies from two large fires in the USA and Spain to demonstrate model updates and improvements intended to better capture extreme fire behaviour and present results demonstrating successful fire containment where suppression difficulty index (SDI) values were low and containment only after a moderation of fire weather where SDI values were high. A basic aim of this work is reducing the uncertainty and increasing the efficiency of suppression operations through assessment of landscape conditions and incorporation of expert knowledge into planning.

A methodology for determining operational priorities for prevention and suppression of wildland fires

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez y Silva ◽  
Juan Ramón Molina Martínez ◽  
Armando González-Cabán
Keyword(s):  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Wildfire Management ◽  
Land Use Conversion ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Fundamental Information ◽  
Difficulty Index ◽  
A Site ◽  
Risk Potential

Traditional uses of the forest (timber, forage) have been giving way to other uses more in demand (recreation, ecosystem services). An observable consequence of this process of forest land use conversion is an increase in more difficult and extreme wildfires. Wildland forest management and protection program budgets are limited, and managers are requesting help in finding ways to objectively assign their limited protection resources based on the intrinsic environmental characteristics of a site and the site’s interrelationship with available firefighting resources and existing infrastructure. A Fire Suppression Priority Index, integrating information on both the potential fire behaviour risk (Potential Fire Behaviour Index) and the fire suppression difficulty (Suppression Difficulty Index), provides managers with fundamental information for strategic planning and development of tactical operations to protect the natural environment. Results in the Córdoba Province, Andalusia’s autonomous region, Spain, showed a statistically significant relationship between wildfire size and all three indices, demonstrating the utility of the methodology to identify and prioritise forest areas for strategic and tactical fire management operations. In addition, the methodology was tested and validated by trained and qualified wildfire management personnel in Chile and Israel, obtaining similar results as in Spain.

Elicitation of expert knowledge to develop decision support tools for use in water demand management planning

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 53-60
Author(s):  
D. Inman ◽  
D. Simidchiev ◽  
P. Jeffrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Water Demand Management ◽  
Support Tools

This paper examines the use of influence diagrams (IDs) in water demand management (WDM) strategy planning with the specific objective of exploring how IDs can be used in developing computer-based decision support tools (DSTs) to complement and support existing WDM decision processes. We report the results of an expert consultation carried out in collaboration with water industry specialists in Sofia, Bulgaria. The elicited information is presented as influence diagrams and the discussion looks at their usefulness in WDM strategy design and the specification of suitable modelling techniques. The paper concludes that IDs themselves are useful in developing model structures for use in evidence-based reasoning models such as Bayesian Networks, and this is in keeping with the objectives set out in the introduction of integrating DSTs into existing decision processes. The paper will be of interest to modellers, decision-makers and scientists involved in designing tools to support resource conservation strategy implementation.

Social Progress in Britain

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony F. Heath ◽  
Elizabeth Garratt ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Yaojun Li ◽  
Lindsay Richards
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
The Road ◽  
Social Divisions ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Free Market Reforms ◽  
Made In

Social Progress in Britain examines how much progress has made in the years since Sir William Beveridge described the ‘five giants on the road to reconstruction’—the giants of Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor, and Idleness. The book has chapters examining the progress which Britain has made in improving material prosperity and tackling poverty; in extending length of life and tackling disease; in raising participation in education and improving educational standards; in tackling the scourge of unemployment, especially youth unemployment; and in providing better-quality housing and tackling overcrowding. In addition to Beveridge’s five giants, the book also explores inequalities of opportunity (focussing on inequalities between social classes, men and women, and ethnic groups), and the changing nature of social divisions and social cohesion in Britain. Throughout, the chapters put British progress into perspective by drawing comparisons with progress made in other large developed democracies such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and the USA. As well as looking at the average level of prosperity, life expectancy, education, and housing, the book examines the extent of inequality around the average and pays particular attention to whether the most disadvantaged sections of society have shared in progress or have fallen behind. It concludes with an assessment of the effect of policy interventions such as Margaret Thatcher’s free market reforms of the 1980s on different aspects of social progress.

The analysis of emergency situations related to fires at nuclear power plants

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 66-75
Author(s):  
S. A. Titov ◽  
N. M. Barbin ◽  
A. M. Kobelev
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Reactor ◽  
Reactor Core ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Short Circuits ◽  
Nuclear Reactor Core

Introduction. The article provides a system and statistical analysis of emergency situations associated with fires at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in various countries of the world for the period from 1955 to 2019. The countries, where fires occurred at nuclear power plants, were identified (the USA, Great Britain, Switzerland, the USSR, Germany, Spain, Japan, Russia, India and France). Facilities, exposed to fires, are identified; causes of fires are indicated. The types of reactors where accidents and incidents, accompanied by large fires, have been determined.The analysis of major emergency situations at nuclear power plants accompanied by large fires. During the period from 1955 to 2019, 27 large fires were registered at nuclear power plants in 10 countries. The largest number of major fires was registered in 1984 (three fires), all of them occurred in the USSR. Most frequently, emergency situations occurred at transformers and cable channels — 40 %, nuclear reactor core — 15 %, reactor turbine — 11 %, reactor vessel — 7 %, steam pipeline systems, cooling towers — 7 %. The main causes of fires were technical malfunctions — 33 %, fires caused by the personnel — 30 %, fires due to short circuits — 18 %, due to natural disasters (natural conditions) — 15 % and unknown reasons — 4 %. A greater number of fires were registered at RBMK — 6, VVER — 5, BWR — 3, and PWR — 3 reactors.Conclusions. Having analyzed accidents, involving large fires at nuclear power plants during the period from 1955 to 2019, we come to the conclusion that the largest number of large fires was registered in the USSR. Nonetheless, to ensure safety at all stages of the life cycle of a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to apply such measures that would prevent the occurrence of severe fires and ensure the protection of personnel and the general public from the effects of a radiation accident.

Messmate stringybark: bark ignitability and burning sustainability in relation to fragment dimensions, hazard score and time since fire

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tara E. Penman ◽  
Jane G. Cawson ◽  
Simon Murphy ◽  
Thomas J. Duff
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Tree Size ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Site Assessment ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Time Since Fire ◽  
Eastern Australia

Messmate stringybark is common in forests across south-eastern Australia. The bark of these trees is persistent and produces firebrands that contribute to house loss and the difficulty of fire suppression during wildfires. The trees typically survive fire with the amount of bark depleted. We compared two common methods to assess messmate bark fuels: (1) field-based hazard assessment, and (2) desk-based assessment using mapped time since fire. Our measurements included space-for-time field surveys and laboratory flammability tests. Although several physical properties of bark could be approximated from both assessment methods, some bark properties important to flammability were not captured. Ignitability was found to be dependent on the amount of char on bark fragments and could be predicted by the site assessment methods, whereas sustainability was dependent on bark fragment dimensions and could not be predicted by current methods. Bark fragment properties were found to be partially a function of tree size. Overall, these findings indicate that current bark assessment methods do not capture all the key bark properties that contribute to messmate bark’s flammability. Further research is warranted to improve bark assessment methods so they better reflect bark’s contribution to fire behaviour.

scholarly journals A pragmatic study of speech as an instrument of power: Analysis of the 2016 USA presidential debate

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
Misyi Gusthini ◽  
Cece Sobarna ◽  
Rosaria Mita Amalia
Keyword(s):  
Power Analysis ◽  
Speech Act ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Illocutionary Acts ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Research Show ◽  
Made In

This research was aimed at analyzing the speeches of Donald Trump and of Hillary Clinton in the USA Presidential candidates’ debates as instruments of power. The data is a presidential final debate video of Trump and Clinton made in September 2016 which has been converted into a transcript. The data analyzing technique is divided into three steps: 1) describing the context, 2) analyzing the illocutionary acts, and 3) analyzing the power dimensions. The results of this research show that the speakers use the speech act as an instrument of power with classifications of representative, commissive and expressive. In this regard, the researchers found that the speakers demonstrated their power to try to convince the voters in their society to trust them to be the president. The research results also showed that the usage of speech in debate as an instrument of power can influence the voters especially on Election Day.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
pp. 246-256
Author(s):  
Steven Hurst
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Islamic Republic ◽  
Political Factions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Right ◽  
Made In ◽  
Key Questions

The conclusion summarizes the arguments made in the previous chapters and returns to the key questions raised in the introduction. It concludes that the available evidence suggest that the Islamic Republic was not bent on the development of nuclear weapons and that key political factions within Iran were happy to forego them in return for reciprocal concessions from the USA. It further follows from that conclusion that claims that the JCPOA represented a successful coercion of Iran through sanctions are wide of the mark. Iranian leaders had been prepared to offer a compromise before effective sanctions were imposed and a deal was only reached when Obama conceded Iran the right to continue enriching uranium. Finally, the chapter argues, based on these conclusions, that Donald Trump's decision to abandon the agreement and re-impose sanctions is unlikely to produce the concessions from Iran that he desires

The Legal Process before 1968: The Juvenile Court

2020 ◽  
pp. 115-144
Author(s):  
Kenneth McK. Norrie
Keyword(s):  
World Wide ◽  
Juvenile Court ◽  
Young Offenders ◽  
Legal Process ◽  
Juvenile Courts ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Hearing System ◽  
Made In

This chapter explores the world-wide movement at the turn of the 20th century towards specialist juvenile courts to deal with children who commit offences. Following the lead of the juvenile court movement in the USA and Australia, the Children Act 1908 set up juvenile courts in both Scotland and England, though in Scotland these courts quickly acquired jurisdiction over both young offenders and children in need of care and protection. Originally little more than a separate set of procedural rules to be followed in the sheriff court dealing with children, an effort was made in the Children and Young Persons (Scotland) Acts 1932 and 1937 to give better effect to the idea of a separate court presided over by specialist judges. Though never nation-wide, these new, enhanced, juvenile courts took on many of the characteristics that were later adopted by the children’s hearing system, including the processes to be followed, the involvement of the children, the requirement to look at the child’s wider environmental circumstances (including the child’s welfare), and the outcomes available to the court.

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