Evaluating ecological resilience across wildfire suppression levels under climate and fuel treatment scenarios using landscape simulation modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Kathy Gray ◽  
Brett Davis ◽  
Lisa M. Holsinger ◽  
Rachel Loehman
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Ecological Resilience ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wildland Fire Use ◽  
Wildfire Suppression

Continued suppression of wildfires may allow more biomass to accumulate to foster even more intense fires. Enlightened fire management involves explicitly determining concurrent levels of suppression, wildland fire use (allowing some fires to burn) and fuel treatments to manage landscapes for ecological resilience. This study used the mechanistic landscape model FireBGCv2 to simulate ecological dynamics on three landscapes in the US northern Rocky Mountains to determine responses of seven management-oriented variables over a gradient of 10 fire suppression levels under two climate and four fuel treatment scenarios. We used a historical range and variation (HRV) time series of the seven variables individually and merged together as a Principal Components factor (PC1) to define the envelope that represents ecological resiliency and compared all simulations with the HRV base case. We found that under today’s climates, using the PC1 factor, ecological resilience was maintained while suppressing 30–90% of wildfires depending on the landscape. We also found fuel treatments might allow higher suppression levels to occur and still maintain resilience. Other findings indicate that each landscape must be individually evaluated to determine the right mix of wildfires, wildland fire use and fuel treatments depending on the response variables used to evaluate resilience.

The wildland - urban interface fire problem - current approaches and research needs

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 238 ◽  
Author(s):  
William E. Mell ◽  
Samuel L. Manzello ◽  
Alexander Maranghides ◽  
David Butry ◽  
Ronald G. Rehm
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Methods ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Treatment Techniques ◽  
Exposure Conditions

Wildfires that spread into wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities present significant challenges on several fronts. In the United States, the WUI accounts for a significant portion of wildland fire suppression and wildland fuel treatment costs. Methods to reduce structure losses are focussed on fuel treatments in either wildland fuels or residential fuels. There is a need for a well-characterised, systematic testing of these approaches across a range of community and structure types and fire conditions. Laboratory experiments, field measurements and fire behaviour models can be used to better determine the exposure conditions faced by communities and structures. The outcome of such an effort would be proven fuel treatment techniques for wildland and residential fuels, risk assessment strategies, economic cost analysis models, and test methods with representative exposure conditions for fire-resistant building designs and materials.

scholarly journals The History and Evolution of Wildland Fire Use

Fire Ecology ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan W. van Wagtendonk
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wildland Fire Use

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel M. Houtman ◽  
Claire A. Montgomery ◽  
Aaron R. Gagnon ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Thomas G. Dietterich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Change Model ◽  
Value Change ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Sample Paths ◽  
Treatment Benefits

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.

Beyond wildfire: perspectives of climate, managed fire and policy in the USA

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Crystal A. Kolden ◽  
Timothy J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Fire Policy ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wildland Fire Use ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Survey Responses

Climate–wildfire relationships have been widely addressed by the scientific community over the last two decades; however, the role of climate in managed fire in the US (i.e. prescribed fire and wildland fire use) has not yet been addressed. We hypothesised that if climate is an important component of managed fire, the fire community would already be aware of this and using climate information in order to mitigate risks associated with managed fires. We conducted 223 surveys with fire managers to ascertain how climate information is utilised in managed-fire decision-making. We found that wildland fire use managers consider climate to be an important aspect of managed fire and use various types of climate information, but prescribed-fire managers do not generally consider climate or use climate information in their planning activities. Survey responses also indicate a lack of agency training on climate information and decision-support tools. This is partly attributed to obstacles in US fire policy that inhibit widespread utilisation of climate information. We suggest these results are indicative of a broader conflict in US wildfire policy, which does not directly address climate despite two decades of scientific research showing climate plays a key role in wildfire regimes.

scholarly journals Special Issue: Wildland Fire Use

Fire Ecology ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Carol Miller
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wildland Fire Use

scholarly journals Modeling Fuel Treatment Costs on Forest Service Lands in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 217-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Calkin ◽  
Krista Gebert
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Forest Service ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Usda Forest Service ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Treatment Type ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Years of successful fire suppression have led to high fuel loads on the nation's forests, and steps are being taken by the nation's land management agencies to reduce these fuel loads. However, to achieve desired outcomes in a fiscally responsible manner, the cost and effectiveness in reducing losses due to wildland fire of different fuel treatments in different forest settings must be understood. Currently, prioritizing fuel treatment activities and planning budget expenditures is limited by a lack of accurate cost data. The primary objective of this research was to develop regression models that may be used to estimate the cost of hazardous fuel reduction treatments based on USDA Forest Service Region, biophysical setting, treatment type, and design. A survey instrument was used to obtain activity-specific information directly from fire management officers at Forest Service Ranger Districts for treatments occurring between 2001 and 2003. For both prescribed burns and mechanical activities, treatment size described the largest amount of variation in cost per acre, with increased size reducing cost per acre, on average. We confirmed that data on Forest Service fuel treatment activities maintained in the National Fire Plan Operations and Reporting System were not sufficiently accurate for reasonable cost analysis and modeling.

scholarly journals A Managerial Approach to Estimating Wildland Fire Use Workload

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Douglas B. Rideout ◽  
Robin M. Reich ◽  
Pamela S. Ziesler
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Resource Usage ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Wildland Fire Use

Abstract Increasing recognition of the role of fire in natural ecosystems has increased the use of wildland fire as a management tool. Although wildland fire use (WFU) has been practiced for decades, it is emerging as an organized program. As such, the analytics of WFU, from a management sciences perspective, are largely undeveloped at a time when there is a growing need to inform program managers and support modeling efforts aimed at more cost-effective fire management programs. Conventional initial attack modeling relates workload to fire perimeter; but, currently, there is no analog for WFU events. This article takes the first step in providing a companion estimation of WFU workload. WFU workload is estimated as a function of basic information on fire size and duration by using a regression tree analysis. Workload scores for wildland fire use management and monitoring were estimated separately. These estimates explained about 68 and 60% of the variation in the management and monitoring scores, respectively. The estimated scores were sensitive to fire size, although duration played an important role, especially on larger events. For example, fires in the same size class often received higher workload scores with increasing duration. Workload estimates from the management regression tree were then associated with average resource usage. The form of the association indicated that as workload estimates increased, average resource usage increased exponentially. Estimating workload scores as a function of size and duration, which are readily available from simulation models, and then associating the scores with resource usage supports efforts to address WFU effort and cost management.

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