Relationships between fire danger and the daily number and daily growth of active incidents burning in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick H. Freeborn ◽  
Mark A. Cochrane ◽  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Temporal Window ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
History Of ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Us Forest Service ◽  
In Fire

Daily National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices are typically associated with the number and final size of newly discovered fires, or averaged over time and associated with the likelihood and total burned area of large fires. Herein we used a decade (2003–12) of NFDRS indices and US Forest Service (USFS) fire reports to examine daily relationships between fire danger and the number and growth rate of wildfires burning within a single predictive service area (PSA) in the Northern Rockies, USA. Results demonstrate that daily associations can be used to: (1) extend the utility of the NFDRS beyond the discovery date of new fires; (2) examine and justify the temporal window within which daily fire danger indices are averaged and related to total burned area; (3) quantify the probability of managing an active incident as a function of fire danger; and (4) quantify the magnitude and variability of daily fire growth as a function of fire danger. The methods herein can be extended to other areas with a daily history of weather and fire records, and can be used to better inform fire management decisions or to compare regional responses of daily fire activity to changes in fire danger.

scholarly journals Postglacial Fire Frequency and its Relation to Long-Term Vegetational and Climatic Changes in Yellowstone Park

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 212-218
Author(s):  
Cathy Whitlock
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Modern Pollen ◽  
Pollen Rain ◽  
History Of ◽  
Fossil Records ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Relationship

The primary research objective has been to study the vegetational history of Yellowstone and its sensitivity to changes in climate and fire frequency. To establish a sequence of vegetational changes, a network of pollen records spanning the last 14,000 years has been studied from different types of vegetation within the Park. The relationship between modern pollen rain, modern vegetation and present­day climate in the northern Rocky Mountains has been the basis for interpreting past vegetation and climate from the fossil records. Changes in fire regime during the past 14,000 years have been inferred from sedimentary charcoal and other fire proxy in lake sediments. Calibration of the fire signal is based on a study that measures the input of charcoal into lakes following the 1988 fires in Yellowstone.

Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Isabel González ◽  
Felipe Verdú ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Marta Yebra
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

The present paper presents and discusses the relationships between live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) measurements and fire occurrence (number of fires and burned area) in a Mediterranean area of central Spain. Grasslands and four shrub species (Cistus ladanifer L., Rosmarinus officinalis L., Erica australis L. and Phillyrea angustifolia L.) were sampled in the field from the spring to the summer season over a 9-year period. Higher seasonal FMC variability was found for the herbaceous species than for shrubs, as grasslands have very low values in summertime. Moisture variations of grasslands were found to be good predictors of number of fires and total burned surface, while moisture variation of two shrubs (C. ladanifer L. and R. officinalis L.) was more sensitive to both the total burned area and the occurrence of large fires. All these species showed significant differences between the FMC of high and low occurrence periods. Three different logistic regression models were built for the 202 periods of analysis: one to predict periods with more and less than seven fires, another to predict periods with and without large fires (>500 ha), and the third to predict periods with more and less than 200 ha burned. The results showed accuracy in predicting periods with a high number of fires (94%), and extensive burned area (85%), with less accuracy in estimating periods with large fires (58%). Finally, empirical functions based on logistic regression analysis were successfully related to fire ignition or potential burned area from FMC data. These models should be useful to integrate FMC measurements with other variables of fire danger (ignition causes, for instance), to provide a more comprehensive assessment of fire danger conditions.

scholarly journals Brief communication Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970–2010, NE Spain)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Turco ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
A. Tudela ◽  
X. Castro ◽  
A. Provenzale
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Prevention ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Ne Spain

Abstract. We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula), a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970–2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Holocene vegetation, fire and climate history of the Sawtooth Range, central Idaho, USA

2011 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathy Whitlock ◽  
Christy E. Briles ◽  
Matias C. Fernandez ◽  
Joshua Gage
Keyword(s):  
Lodgepole Pine ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Pine Forest ◽  
Striking Difference ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Pine Decline ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

AbstractThe paucity of low- and middle-elevation paleoecologic records in the Northern Rocky Mountains limits our ability to assess current environmental change in light of past conditions. A 10,500-yr-long vegetation, fire and climate history from Lower Decker Lake in the Sawtooth Range provides information from a new region. Initial forests dominated by pine and Douglas-fir were replaced by open Douglas-fir forest at 8420 cal yr BP, marking the onset of warmer conditions than present. Presence of closed Douglas-fir forest between 6000 and 2650 cal yr BP suggests heightened summer drought in the middle Holocene. Closed lodgepole pine forest developed at 2650 cal yr BP and fires became more frequent after 1450 cal yr BP. This shift from Douglas-fir to lodgepole pine forest was probably facilitated by a combination of cooler summers, cold winters, and more severe fires than before. Five drought episodes, including those at 8200 cal yr BP and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, were registered by brief intervals of lodgepole pine decline, an increase in fire activity, and mistletoe infestation. The importance of a Holocene perspective when assessing the historical range of variability is illustrated by the striking difference between the modern forest and that which existed 3000 yr ago.

scholarly journals Biomass burning fuel consumption dynamics in the tropics and subtropics assessed from satellite

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3717-3734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Andela ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf ◽  
Johannes W. Kaiser ◽  
Thijs T. van Leeuwen ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Consumption Dynamics

Abstract. Landscape fires occur on a large scale in (sub)tropical savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystem dynamics, regional air quality and concentrations of atmospheric trace gasses. Fuel consumption per unit of area burned is an important but poorly constrained parameter in fire emission modelling. We combined satellite-derived burned area with fire radiative power (FRP) data to derive fuel consumption estimates for land cover types with low tree cover in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia. We developed a new approach to estimate fuel consumption, based on FRP data from the polar-orbiting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) in combination with MODIS burned-area estimates. The fuel consumption estimates based on the geostationary and polar-orbiting instruments showed good agreement in terms of spatial patterns. We used field measurements of fuel consumption to constrain our results, but the large variation in fuel consumption in both space and time complicated this comparison and absolute fuel consumption estimates remained more uncertain. Spatial patterns in fuel consumption could be partly explained by vegetation productivity and fire return periods. In South America, most fires occurred in savannas with relatively long fire return periods, resulting in comparatively high fuel consumption as opposed to the more frequently burning savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Strikingly, we found the infrequently burning interior of Australia to have higher fuel consumption than the more productive but frequently burning savannas in northern Australia. Vegetation type also played an important role in explaining the distribution of fuel consumption, by affecting both fuel build-up rates and fire return periods. Hummock grasslands, which were responsible for a large share of Australian biomass burning, showed larger fuel build-up rates than equally productive grasslands in Africa, although this effect might have been partially driven by the presence of grazers in Africa or differences in landscape management. Finally, land management in the form of deforestation and agriculture also considerably affected fuel consumption regionally. We conclude that combining FRP and burned-area estimates, calibrated against field measurements, is a promising approach in deriving quantitative estimates of fuel consumption. Satellite-derived fuel consumption estimates may both challenge our current understanding of spatiotemporal fuel consumption dynamics and serve as reference datasets to improve biogeochemical modelling approaches. Future field studies especially designed to validate satellite-based products, or airborne remote sensing, may further improve confidence in the absolute fuel consumption estimates which are quickly becoming the weakest link in fire emission estimates.

scholarly journals Estimates of biomass burning emissions in tropical Asia based on satellite-derived data

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2335-2351 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Chang ◽  
Y. Song
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Crop Residue ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Tropical Asia ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Biomass burning in tropical Asia emits large amounts of trace gases and particulate matter into the atmosphere, which has significant implications for atmospheric chemistry and climatic change. In this study, emissions from open biomass burning over tropical Asia were evaluated during seven fire years from 2000 to 2006 (1 March 2000–31 February 2007). The size of the burned areas was estimated from newly published 1-km L3JRC and 500-m MODIS burned area products (MCD45A1). Available fuel loads and emission factors were assigned to each vegetation type in a GlobCover characterisation map, and fuel moisture content was taken into account when calculating combustion factors. Over the whole period, both burned areas and fire emissions showed clear spatial and seasonal variations. The size of the L3JRC burned areas ranged from 36 031 km2 in fire year 2005 to 52 303 km2 in 2001, and the MCD45A1 burned areas ranged from 54 790 km2 in fire year 2001 to 148 967 km2 in 2004. Comparisons of L3JRC and MCD45A1 burned areas using ground-based measurements and other satellite data were made in several major burning regions, and the results suggest that MCD45A1 generally performed better than L3JRC, although with a certain degree of underestimation in forest areas. The average annual L3JRC-based emissions were 123 (102–152), 12 (9–15), 1.0 (0.7–1.3), 1.9 (1.4–2.6), 0.11 (0.09–0.12), 0.89 (0.63–1.21), 0.043 (0.036–0.053), 0.021 (0.021–0.023), 0.41 (0.34–0.52), 3.4 (2.6–4.3), and 3.6 (2.8–4.7) Tg yr−1 for CO2, CO, CH4, NMHCs, NOx, NH3, SO2, BC, OC, PM2.5, and PM10, respectively, whereas MCD45A1-based emissions were 122 (108–144), 9.3 (7.7–11.7), 0.63 (0.46–0.86), 1.1 (0.8–1.6), 0.11 (0.10–0.13), 0.54 (0.38–0.76), 0.043 (0.038–0.051), 0.033 (0.032–0.037), 0.39 (0.34–0.47), 3.0 (2.6–3.7), and 3.3 (2.8–4.0) Tg yr−1. Forest burning was identified as the major source of the fire emissions due to its high carbon density. Although agricultural burning was the second highest contributor, it is possible that some crop residue combustion was missed by satellite observations. This possibility is supported by comparisons with previously published data, and this result may be due to the small size of the field crop residue burning. Fire emissions were mainly concentrated in Indonesia, India, Myanmar, and Cambodia. Furthermore, the peak in the size of the burned area was generally found in the early fire season, whereas the maximum fire emissions often occurred in the late fire season.

scholarly journals Relating Spatiotemporal Patterns of Forest Fires Burned Area and Duration to Diurnal Land Surface Temperature Anomalies

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmine Maffei ◽  
Silvia Alfieri ◽  
Massimo Menenti
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Informative Content

Forest fires are a major source of ecosystem disturbance. Vegetation reacts to meteorological factors contributing to fire danger by reducing stomatal conductance, thus leading to an increase of canopy temperature. The latter can be detected by remote sensing measurements in the thermal infrared as a deviation of observed land surface temperature (LST) from climatological values, that is as an LST anomaly. A relationship is thus expected between LST anomalies and forest fires burned area and duration. These two characteristics are indeed controlled by a large variety of both static and dynamic factors related to topography, land cover, climate, weather (including those affecting LST) and anthropic activity. To investigate the predicting capability of remote sensing measurements, rather than constructing a comprehensive model, it would be relevant to determine whether anomalies of LST affect the probability distributions of burned area and fire duration. This research approached the outlined knowledge gap through the analysis of a dataset of forest fires in Campania (Italy) covering years 2003–2011 against estimates of LST anomaly. An LST climatology was first computed from time series of daily Aqua-MODIS LST data (product MYD11A1, collection 6) over the longest available sequence of complete annual datasets (2003–2017), through the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm. HANTS was also used to create individual annual models of LST data, to minimize the effect of varying observation geometry and cloud contamination on LST estimates while retaining its seasonal variation. LST anomalies where thus quantified as the difference between LST annual models and LST climatology. Fire data were intersected with LST anomaly maps to associate each fire with the LST anomaly value observed at its position on the day previous to the event. Further to this step, the closest probability distribution function describing burned area and fire duration were identified against a selection of parametric models through the maximization of the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit. Parameters of the identified distributions conditional to LST anomaly where then determined along their confidence intervals. Results show that in the study area log-transformed burned area is described by a normal distribution, whereas log-transformed fire duration is closer to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of these distributions conditional to LST anomaly show clear trends with increasing LST anomaly; significance of this observation was verified through a likelihood ratio test. This confirmed that LST anomaly is a covariate of both burned area and fire duration. As a consequence, it was observed that conditional probabilities of extreme events appear to increase with increasing positive deviations of LST from its climatology values. This confirms the stated hypothesis that LST anomalies affect forest fires burned area and duration and highlights the informative content of time series of LST with respect to fire danger.

scholarly journals Historical fire records at the two ends of Iberian Central Mountain System: Estrela massif and Ayllón massif

2019 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Catarina Romão Sequeira ◽  
Cristina Montiel-Molina ◽  
Francisco Castro Rego
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Natural Region ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Mountain System ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

The Iberian Peninsula has a long history of fire, as the Central Mountain System, from the Estrela massif in Portugal to the Ayllón massif in Spain, is a major fire-prone area. Despite being part of the same natural region, there are different environmental, political and socio-economic contexts at either end, which might have led to distinct human causes of wildfires and associated fire regimes. The hypothesis for this research lies in the historical long-term relationship between wildfire risks and fire use practices within a context of landscape dynamics. In addition to conducting an analysis of the statistical period, a spatial and temporal multiscale approach was taken by reconstructing the historical record of prestatistical fires and land management history at both ends of the Central Mountain System. The main result is the different structural causes of wildland fires at either end of the Central Mountain System, with human factors being more important than environmental factors in determining the fire regimes in both contexts. The study shows that the development of the fire regime was non-linear in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, due to broader local human context factors which led to a shift in fire-use practices.

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

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