Trends in Fire Danger and Population Exposure along the Wildland–Urban Interface

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Colin L. Peterson ◽  
Steven E. Prince ◽  
Ana G. Rappold
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface ◽  
In Fire

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 2284-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Alexandros P Dimitrakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Ignition

Fuel moisture content (FMC) estimation is a critical part of any fire danger rating system, since fuel water status is determinant in fire ignition and fire propagation. However, FMC alone does not provide a comprehensive assessment of fire danger, since other factors related to fire ignition (lightning, human factors) or propagation (wind, slope) also need to be taken into account. The problem in integrating all these factors is finding a common scale of danger rating that will make it possible to derive synthetic indices. This paper reviews the importance of FMC in fire ignition and fire propagation, as well as the most common methods of estimating FMC values. A simple method to convert FMC values to danger ratings is proposed, based on computing ignition potential from thresholds of moisture of extinction adapted to each fuel. The method has been tested for the Madrid region (central Spain), where a fire danger assessment system has been built. All the variables related to fire danger were integrated into a dedicated geographic information system and information provided to fire managers through a web mapping server.

scholarly journals Publishing sensor observations into Geospatial Information Infrastructures: A use case in fire danger assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 65-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Díaz ◽  
Arne Bröring ◽  
Daniel McInerney ◽  
Giorgio Libertá ◽  
Theodor Foerster
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Geospatial Information ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Information Infrastructures ◽  
In Fire

INTEGRATED EXPERIMENTAL STUDY USING INFRARED THERMOGRAPHY METHOD ON BEHAVIOR OF WOOD CONSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS IN FIRE CONDITIONS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kasymov ◽  
◽  
V. Agafontsev ◽  
E. Loboda ◽  
Yu. Loboda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Infrared Thermography ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface ◽  
The Real ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Wui Fires ◽  
Fire Conditions

In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires. The ignition of buildings in the WUI is a serious international problem due to large-scale fires in Australia, Greece, Portugal, Russia, and USA. In Russia, where forests occupy a large territory, the WUI fires are a national problem, and the damage to the real sector of the economy is tens and hundreds of million dollars per year.

Relationships between fire danger and the daily number and daily growth of active incidents burning in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick H. Freeborn ◽  
Mark A. Cochrane ◽  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Temporal Window ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
History Of ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Us Forest Service ◽  
In Fire

Daily National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices are typically associated with the number and final size of newly discovered fires, or averaged over time and associated with the likelihood and total burned area of large fires. Herein we used a decade (2003–12) of NFDRS indices and US Forest Service (USFS) fire reports to examine daily relationships between fire danger and the number and growth rate of wildfires burning within a single predictive service area (PSA) in the Northern Rockies, USA. Results demonstrate that daily associations can be used to: (1) extend the utility of the NFDRS beyond the discovery date of new fires; (2) examine and justify the temporal window within which daily fire danger indices are averaged and related to total burned area; (3) quantify the probability of managing an active incident as a function of fire danger; and (4) quantify the magnitude and variability of daily fire growth as a function of fire danger. The methods herein can be extended to other areas with a daily history of weather and fire records, and can be used to better inform fire management decisions or to compare regional responses of daily fire activity to changes in fire danger.

scholarly journals Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience.

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen W. Taylor ◽  
Martin E. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire ◽  
And Training

The present paper reviews the development of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and its implementation in Canada and elsewhere, and suggests how this experience can be applied in developing fire danger rating systems in other forest or wildland environments. Experience with the CFFDRS suggests that four key scientific, technological, and human elements need to be developed and integrated in a national forest fire danger rating system. First among these is a sustained program of scientific research to develop a system based on relationships between fire weather, fuels, and topography, and fire occurrence, behavior, and impact appropriate to the fire environment. Development of a reliable technical infrastructure to gather, process, and archive fire weather data and to disseminate fire weather forecasts, fire danger information, and fire behavior predictions within operational agencies is also important. Technology transfer and training in the use of fire danger information in fire operations are necessary, as are cooperation and communication between fire management agencies to share resources and set common standards for information, resources, and training. These elements must be appropriate to the needs and capabilities of fire managers, and must evolve as fire management objectives change. Fire danger systems are a form of media; system developers should be careful not to overemphasize scientific and technological elements at the expense of human and institutional factors. Effective fire danger systems are readily assimilated by and influence the organizational culture, which in turn influences the development of new technologies. Most importantly, common vision and a sense of common cause among fire scientists and fire managers are needed for successful implementation of a fire danger rating system.

Evaluation of ERS SAR data for prediction of fire danger in a Boreal region

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura L. Bourgeau-Chavez ◽  
Eric S. Kasischke ◽  
Mark D. Rutherford
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire

Research was conducted to determine the utility of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for measuring the fuel moisture status of boreal forests as reflected in Fire Weather Index Codes. Three years (May to August 1992–1995) of SAR data from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) were analysed over the 1990 Tok Alaska burned and adjacent unburned black spruce forests. Corresponding Fire Weather Index Codes of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System were obtained from Tok Area Forestry, Station number 500720. Strong relationships were expected between the SAR data and fire codes because of the dependence of ERS SAR backscatter on the moisture status of forests and exposed surfaces (burn scars). Astepwise multilinear regression procedure was used to analyse the relationships. Three statistically significant multilinear regression models resulted from this analysis procedure. The models developed show there is potential for using ERS SAR backscatter to generate indicators that are related to Fire Weather Index, Duff Moisture Code, and Drought Code. This research could lead to the ability for remote prediction of fire danger over large regions at relatively fine spatial resolution with minimal weather information.

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