Comparing landscape-based decision rules for placement of fuel treatments in the boreal mixedwood of western Canada

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
David R. Junor ◽  
Victor G. Kafka
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Landscape Features ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Rule Sets ◽  
Rule Based Approach

The present study used a rule-based approach to prioritise locations of fuel treatments in the boreal mixedwood forest of western Canada. The analysis, which was conducted in and around Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan, was based on burn probability (BP) mapping using the Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning) model. Fuel treatment locations were determined according to three rule-sets and five fuel treatment intensities. Fuel treatments were located according to BP only; jurisdictional boundaries and BP; and non-flammable landscape features, BP, and fuel treatment orientation. First, a baseline BP map was created from the original (i.e. unmodified) fuels grid. Fuel treatments were then added to the selected areas and BP maps produced for each combination of rule-set and treatment intensity. BP values for the treated landscapes were compared with those of the baseline BP map. Results varied substantially among scenarios. Locating fuel treatments as a function of the jurisdictional boundaries and BP yielded the lowest reduction in BP. Results suggest that clumping fuel treatments within a limited area or using landscape features to maximise the large-scale spatial benefits of the fuel treatments can significantly reduce landscape-level BP. Although these two strategies may produce similar overall reductions in BP, their appropriateness and utility depend on management objectives.

Large scale magnetic anomalies over western Canada and the Arctic: a discussion

1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 790-802 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Coles ◽  
G. V. Haines ◽  
W. Hannaford
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Magnetic Anomalies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Evolutionary Development ◽  
Magnetic Feature ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
The Magnetic Field

A contoured map of vertical magnetic field residuals (relative to the IGRF) over western Canada and adjacent Arctic regions has been produced by amalgamating new data with those from previous surveys. The measurements were made at altitudes between 3.5 and 5.5 km above sea level. The map shows the form of the magnetic field within the waveband 30 to 5000 km. A magnetic feature of several thousand kilometres wavelength dominates the map, and is probably due in major part to sources in the earth's core. Superimposed on this are several groups of anomalies which contain wavelengths of the order of a thousand kilometres. The patterns of the short wavelength anomalies provide a broad view of major structures and indicate several regimes of distinctive evolutionary development. Enhancement of viscous magnetization at elevated temperatures may account for the concentration of intense anomalies observed near the western edge of the craton.

scholarly journals Water security in the Canadian Prairies: science and management challenges

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (2002) ◽  
pp. 20120409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Wheater ◽  
Patricia Gober
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Multiple Dimensions ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Water Problems

In this paper, we discuss the multiple dimensions of water security and define a set of thematic challenges for science, policy and governance, based around cross-scale dynamics, complexity and uncertainty. A case study of the Saskatchewan River basin (SRB) in western Canada is presented, which encompasses many of the water-security challenges faced worldwide. A science agenda is defined based on the development of the SRB as a large-scale observatory to develop the underpinning science and social science needed to improve our understanding of water futures under societal and environmental change. We argue that non-stationarity poses profound challenges for existing science and that new integration of the natural sciences, engineering and social sciences is needed to address decision making under deep uncertainty. We suggest that vulnerability analysis can be combined with scenario-based modelling to address issues of water security and that knowledge translation should be coupled with place-based modelling, adaptive governance and social learning to address the complexity uncertainty and scale dynamics of contemporary water problems.

LESbrary: A library of large eddy simulation data for the calibration and uncertainty quantification of ocean surface boundary layer turbulence parameterizations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Wagner ◽  
Andre Souza ◽  
Adeline Hillier ◽  
Ali Ramadhan ◽  
Raffaele Ferrari
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Surface Boundary Layer ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Free Parameters

<p>Parameterizations of turbulent mixing in the ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) are key Earth System Model (ESM) components that modulate the communication of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and ocean interior. OSBL turbulence parameterizations are formulated in terms of unknown free parameters estimated from observational or synthetic data. In this work we describe the development and use of a synthetic dataset called the “LESbrary” generated by a large number of idealized, high-fidelity, limited-area large eddy simulations (LES) of OSBL turbulent mixing. We describe how the LESbrary design leverages a detailed understanding of OSBL conditions derived from observations and large scale models to span the range of realistically diverse physical scenarios. The result is a diverse library of well-characterized “synthetic observations” that can be readily assimilated for the calibration of realistic OSBL parameterizations in isolation from other ESM model components. We apply LESbrary data to calibrate free parameters, develop prior estimates of parameter uncertainty, and evaluate model errors in two OSBL parameterizations for use in predictive ESMs.</p>

scholarly journals Continuous high-resolution midlatitude-belt simulations for July–August 2013 with WRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2031-2055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schwitalla ◽  
Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Latitude Belt ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Increasing computational resources and the demands of impact modelers, stake holders, and society envision seasonal and climate simulations with the convection-permitting resolution. So far such a resolution is only achieved with a limited-area model whose results are impacted by zonal and meridional boundaries. Here, we present the setup of a latitude-belt domain that reduces disturbances originating from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows for studying the impact of model resolution and physical parameterization. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land–surface model was operated during July and August 2013 at two different horizontal resolutions, namely 0.03 (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). Both simulations were forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries, and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface.The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large-scale features. To analyze the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used as references.Analyzing pressure, geopotential height, wind, and temperature fields as well as precipitation revealed (1) a benefit from the higher resolution concerning the reduction of monthly biases, root mean square error, and an improved Pearson skill score, and (2) deficiencies in the physical parameterizations leading to notable biases in distinct regions like the polar Atlantic for the LOWRES simulation, the North Pacific, and Inner Mongolia for both resolutions.In summary, the application of a latitude belt on a convection-permitting resolution shows promising results that are beneficial for future seasonal forecasting.

scholarly journals A Scale-Selective Data Assimilation Approach to Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts in a Limited-Area Model: A Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007)

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Lian Xie
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Global Models

Abstract Accurately forecasting a tropical cyclone’s (TC) track and intensity remains one of the top priorities in weather forecasting. A dynamical downscaling approach based on the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) method is applied to demonstrate its effectiveness in TC track and intensity forecasting. The SSDA approach retains the merits of global models in representing large-scale environmental flows and regional models in describing small-scale characteristics. The regional model is driven from the model domain interior by assimilating large-scale flows from global models, as well as from the model lateral boundaries by the conventional sponge zone relaxation. By using Hurricane Felix (2007) as a demonstration case, it is shown that, by assimilating large-scale flows from the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts into the regional model, the SSDA experiments perform better than both the original GFS forecasts and the control experiments, in which the regional model is only driven by lateral boundary conditions. The overall mean track forecast error for the SSDA experiments is reduced by over 40% relative to the control experiments, and by about 30% relative to the GFS forecasts, respectively. In terms of TC intensity, benefiting from higher grid resolution that better represents regional and small-scale processes, both the control and SSDA runs outperform the GFS forecasts. The SSDA runs show approximately 14% less overall mean intensity forecast error than do the control runs. It should be noted that, for the Felix case, the advantage of SSDA becomes more evident for forecasts with a lead time longer than 48 h.

scholarly journals Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bret Shandro ◽  
Pascal Haegeli
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Avalanche Hazard ◽  
Problem Types ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
Location Study ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Avalanche Risk Management

Abstract. The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study interseasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/10 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al.'s (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using Self Organizing Maps (SOM) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization measure that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the interseasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

scholarly journals Yield Prediction for Tomato Greenhouse Using EFuNN

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kefaya Qaddoum ◽  
E. L. Hines ◽  
D. D. Iliescu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Knowledge Bases ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Tomato Yield ◽  
Fuzzy Neural ◽  
Rule Sets ◽  
Human Operators

In the area of greenhouse operation, yield prediction still relies heavily on human expertise. This paper proposes an automatic tomato yield predictor to assist the human operators in anticipating more effectively weekly fluctuations and avoid problems of both overdemand and overproduction if the yield cannot be predicted accurately. The parameters used by the predictor consist of environmental variables inside the greenhouse, namely, temperature, CO2, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation, as well as past yield. Greenhouse environment data and crop records from a large scale commercial operation, Wight Salads Group (WSG) in the Isle of Wight, United Kingdom, collected during the period 2004 to 2008, were used to model tomato yield using an Intelligent System called “Evolving Fuzzy Neural Network” (EFuNN). Our results show that the EFuNN model predicted weekly fluctuations of the yield with an average accuracy of 90%. The contribution suggests that the multiple EFUNNs can be mapped to respective task-oriented rule-sets giving rise to adaptive knowledge bases that could assist growers in the control of tomato supplies and more generally could inform the decision making concerning overall crop management practices.

scholarly journals Social feedback and the emergence of rank in animal society

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Hobson ◽  
Simon DeDeo
Keyword(s):  
Feedback Loop ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Social Feedback ◽  
Dominance Hierarchies ◽  
Myiopsitta Monachus ◽  
Direct Aggression ◽  
Individual Decisions

Dominance hierarchies are group-level properties that emerge from the aggressions of individuals. Although individuals can gain critical benefits from their position in a hierarchy, we do not understand how real-world hierarchies form, or what signals and decision-rules individuals use to construct and maintain them in the absence of simple cues. A study of aggression in two groups of captive monk parakeets (Myiopsitta monachus) found a transition to large-scale ordered aggression occurred in newly-formed groups after one week, with individuals thereafter preferring to direct aggression against those nearby in rank. We describe two mechanisms by which individuals may determine rank order: inference based on overall levels of aggression, or on subsets of the aggression network. Both pathways were predictive of individual decisions to aggress. Based on these results, we present a new theory, of a feedback loop between knowledge of rank and consequent behavior, that explains the transition to strategic aggression, and the formation and persistence of dominance hierarchies in groups capable of both social memory and social inference.

scholarly journals On the Energy Efficiency of Indoor Air Conditioning

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 325-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. N. Osipov ◽  
A. V. Zakharenko ◽  
E. M. Shirokova
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Heat Exchange ◽  
Indoor Air ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Physiological Adaptation ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Air Conditioner ◽  
Conditioning Process

The increase of average outdoor temperatures and their fluctuations over the past 20 years (as evidenced by the records of summer temperatures in our country) has significantly increased the need for air conditioning premises where people are present for a long time, especially when they are crowded (shops, entertainment halls, classrooms, etc.). The air conditioning process is quite energy-intensive, but the growth of well-being in many republics of the former USSR, as well as the increasing complexity of the physiological adaptation of the human body to rising outdoor temperatures make it possible (and at the same time necessary) to implement these systems on a large scale. It is important to take into account that electricity prices are currently maintained at a high level for homeowners, and in the coming years the prices will only grow. Therefore, the development of new ways of significant increase of the energy efficiency of the indoor air conditioning process is of a great interest. One of these methods is the use of laminar (or close to them) moving layers of conditioned air in a limited area of work or rest of people. Such a zone, about 1.0‒1.2 m height from a floor in each apartment is, e.g., living rooms (bedroom) in which standard temperature conditions are created by means of simple air supplying and air intake devices. In the case of sedentary work of people, the height of such a zone of conditioned air should be increased to 1.3‒1.5 m. It has already been established that the use of laminar (or close to them) air flows allows to reduce the power consumption by two or more times due to significantly reduced heat exchange with the surrounding heated surfaces. Besides, the simplicity of such systems ought to be noted. In particular, in conditions of modern systems of control and management of air conditioning, the "duties" of consumers include only the installation on the control device of the initial data relating directly to the required parameters of the microclimate. At the same time, it should be noted that there is currently no complete scientific and technical description of aerodynamic and heat exchange processes in the air conditioning zone. Even in modern conditions for countries with a sharply continental climate (Russia, Kazakhstan, etc.), the problem is the choice of the type of air conditioner for its effective use in hot periods of summer. In general, it can be noted that all the problems of energy-efficient use of air conditioners must find a comprehensive solution.

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