Prestige, taboo, and sustainability: predicting wildlife population trajectories in indigenous commerce

Commercial traffic in plants and animals has led to severe declines for some species, while others have experienced few if any negative impacts. Given the uncertainty regarding which species are likely to be adversely affected by monetized trade, it would be useful to have a model that could predict wildlife population trajectories of wild-gathered species subsequent to commercialization. We suggest that the indigenous conservation strategy of "taboo" offers important insights into identifying species that are susceptible to over-exploitation through commercial traffic. We describe an economic conservation/extinction model based on the dual concepts of taboo and optimal foraging strategy and examine the model through a detailed case study of vulnerability to perturbation in the case of commercial traffic in Pacific island flying foxes. We suggest that tile virtual eradication of flying foxes from the island of Guam during the Twentieth Century resulted from a cultural predilection among the indigenous Chamorro people for consuming flying foxes coupled with the cultural loss of the traditional taboo conservation system on the island.