Big oil in 2030: thriving (and driving) in a carbon constrained future

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 525
Author(s):  
Bernadette Cullinane ◽  
Steve McGill
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Transportation Fuels ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Petroleum Companies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

What if you knew that, 12 years from now, demand for your product would dramatically fall? What would you do? The transportation sector is responsible for more than 60% of worldwide demand for petroleum products. However, several countries have recently introduced policies banning the internal combustion engine (ICE) and/or supporting electric vehicles (EVs), which could have a major impact on this demand. Norway, India, The Netherlands, Germany, China and the UK have all made such announcements. Furthermore, the increasing affordability and reliability of EVs combined with their excellent maintenance and automation capabilities have driven EVs to become among the best-selling luxury cars available today. There is no way to be certain what the new normal of 2030 may bring for petroleum transportation fuels and the automotive industry. Forecasts range from a world dominated by EVs and substantially reduced demand for oil, to scenarios where the impact to petroleum demand is less than 10%. Whatever the future may bring, renewable energy paired with flexible and intelligent EVs is emerging as a threat, to which the petroleum and automotive industries are responding with a myriad of strategies. Throughout history, even small disruptions in supply or demand have resulted in major impacts on industry profitability. Based on case studies from around the world and work with large petroleum companies in Australia, this paper discusses how leading companies are preparing for a post-ICE world and considers what steps petroleum and automotive industry executives should be taking today to ensure that they remain vibrant and viable in the new normal of 2030 and beyond.

scholarly journals Optimized Integration of Electric Vehicles in Low Voltage Distribution Grids

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 4059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Spitzer ◽  
Jonas Schlund ◽  
Elpiniki Apostolaki-Iosifidou ◽  
Marco Pruckner
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Low Voltage ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Phase System ◽  
Coordination Strategies ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Coordinated Charging ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Distribution Grids

All over the world the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in the transportation sector, becomes more and more important. Electric vehicles will be one of the key factors to mitigate GHG emissions due to their higher efficiency in contrast to internal combustion engine vehicles. On the other hand, uncoordinated charging will put more strain on electrical distribution grids and possible congestions in the grid become more likely. In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncoordinated charging, as well as optimization-based coordination strategies on the voltage stability and phase unbalances of a representative European semi-urban low voltage grid. Therefore, we model the low voltage grid as a three-phase system and take realistic arrival and departure times of the electric vehicle fleet into account. Subsequently, we compare different coordinated charging strategies with regard to their optimization objectives, e.g., cost reduction or GHG emissions reduction. Results show that possible congestion problems can be solved by coordinated charging. Additionally, depending on the objective, the costs can be reduced by more than 50% and the GHG emissions by around 40%.

scholarly journals The Development of Strategies to Reduce Exhaust Emissions from Passenger Cars in Rzeszow City—Poland. A Preliminary Assessment of the Results Produced by the Increase of E-Fleet

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1046
Author(s):  
Maksymilian Mądziel ◽  
Tiziana Campisi ◽  
Artur Jaworski ◽  
Giovanni Tesoriere
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Present Report ◽  
Exhaust Emissions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Particulate Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Urban agglomerations close to road infrastructure are particularly exposed to harmful exhaust emissions from motor vehicles and this problem is exacerbated at road intersections. Roundabouts are one of the most popular intersection designs in recent years, making traffic flow smoother and safer, but especially at peak times they are subject to numerous stop-and-go operations by vehicles, which increase the dispersion of emissions with high particulate matter rates. The study focused on a specific area of the city of Rzeszow in Poland. This country is characterized by the current composition of vehicle fleets connected to combustion engine vehicles. The measurement of the concentration of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) by means of a preliminary survey campaign in the vicinity of the intersection made it possible to assess the impact of vehicle traffic on the dispersion of pollutants in the air. The present report presents some strategies to be implemented in the examined area considering a comparison of current and project scenarios characterized both by a modification of the road geometry (through the introduction of a turbo roundabout) and the composition of the vehicular flow with the forthcoming diffusion of electric vehicles. The study presents an exemplified methodology for comparing scenarios aimed at optimizing strategic choices for the local administration and also shows the benefits of an increased electric fleet. By processing the data with specific tools and comparing the scenarios, it was found that a conversion of 25% of the motor vehicles to electric vehicles in the current fleet has reduced the concentration of PM10 by about 30% along the ring road, has led to a significant reduction in the length of particulate concentration of the motorway, and it has also led to a significant reduction in the length of the particulate concentration for the access roads to the intersection.

scholarly journals Transformación de un vehículo de combustión a eléctrico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar Alonso Salazar Marín ◽  
Juan Felipe Arroyave Londoño
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Economic Benefit ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Environment And Health ◽  
The Impact

Colombia, like other developing countries, has been incorporating various electric vehicles in its automotive park, motivated by an emerging policy of incentives, a concern for the environment and health, and a high cost of fuel; however, these types of vehicles remain relatively expensive. The transformation of thermal vehicles (combustion engine) to electric vehicles becomes an interesting option, due to its low cost compared to new commercial electric vehicles and the positive environmental impact which represents. The present work illustrates the technological steps that have been required in the transformation from a traditional internal combustion vehicle to an electric one (sprint vehicle), showing the economic benefit and the impact on the attenuation of greenhouse gases. The analysis of the traction dynamics and validation with various laboratory and field (road) tests, have shown the viability of a transformed vehicle, which satisfies the power demands under different load...

scholarly journals A Review on Power Electronics Technologies for Electric Mobility

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6343
Author(s):  
Joao L. Afonso ◽  
Luiz A. Lisboa Cardoso ◽  
Delfim Pedrosa ◽  
Tiago J. C. Sousa ◽  
Luis Machado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Electronics ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Electrical Power ◽  
Electric Mobility ◽  
Road Vehicles ◽  
Battery Charging ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Innovative Solutions

Concerns about greenhouse gas emissions are a key topic addressed by modern societies worldwide. As a contribution to mitigate such effects caused by the transportation sector, the full adoption of electric mobility is increasingly being seen as the main alternative to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which is supported by positive industry indicators, despite some identified hurdles. For such objective, power electronics technologies play an essential role and can be contextualized in different purposes to support the full adoption of electric mobility, including on-board and off-board battery charging systems, inductive wireless charging systems, unified traction and charging systems, new topologies with innovative operation modes for supporting the electrical power grid, and innovative solutions for electrified railways. Embracing all of these aspects, this paper presents a review on power electronics technologies for electric mobility where some of the main technologies and power electronics topologies are presented and explained. In order to address a broad scope of technologies, this paper covers road vehicles, lightweight vehicles and railway vehicles, among other electric vehicles.

scholarly journals Environmental and Economic Benefits of a Battery Electric Vehicle Powertrain with a Zinc–Air Range Extender in the Transition to Electric Vehicles

Vehicles ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manh-Kien Tran ◽  
Steven Sherman ◽  
Ehsan Samadani ◽  
Reid Vrolyk ◽  
Derek Wong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Battery Pack ◽  
Range Extender ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Li Ion

Emissions and pollution from the transportation sector due to the consumption of fossil fuels by conventional vehicles have been negatively affecting the global climate and public health. Electric vehicles (EVs) are a cleaner solution to reduce the emission and pollution caused by transportation. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the main type of energy storage system used in EVs. The Li-ion battery pack must be considerably large to satisfy the requirement for the vehicle’s range, which also increases the cost of the vehicle. However, considering that most people use their vehicles for short-distance travel during daily commutes, the large pack is expensive, inefficient and unnecessary. In a previous paper, we proposed a novel EV powertrain design that incorporated the use of a zinc–air (Zn–air) battery pack as a range-extender, so that a smaller Li-ion pack could be used to save costs. The design and performance aspects of the powertrain were analyzed. In this study, the environmental and economic benefits of the proposed dual-battery powertrain are investigated. The results from the new powertrain were compared with values from a standard EV powertrain with one large Li-ion pack and a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) powertrain. In addition, an air pollution model is developed to determine the total amount of pollution released by the transportation sector on Highway 401 in Ontario, Canada. The model was then used to determine the effects of mass passenger EV rollout on pollution reduction.

scholarly journals Eco-Speed Guidance for the Mixed Traffic of Electric Vehicles and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles at an Isolated Signalized Intersection

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Liu ◽  
Dong Liu ◽  
Cheng Li ◽  
Toshiyuki Yamamoto
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Signalized Intersection ◽  
Mixed Traffic ◽  
Mixed Traffic Flow ◽  
Energy Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Guidance Model

Although electric vehicles (EVs) have been regarded as promising to reduce tailpipe emissions and energy consumption, a mixed traffic flow of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) makes the energy/emissions reduction objective more difficult because EVs and ICEVs have various general characteristics. This paper proposes a low-emission-oriented speed guidance model to address the energy/emission reduction issue under a mixed traffic flow at an isolated signalized intersection to achieve the objective of reducing emissions and total energy consumption while reducing vehicle delay and travel time. The total energy/emissions under different market penetration rates of EVs with various traffic volumes are analyzed and compared. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed speed guidance model has better performance than those without considering the impact of queues. For a certain traffic volume, the energy/emission reduction effects under speed guidance will increase with an increasing share of EVs. This paper also explores the impact of the time interval for guidance renewal on vehicle emissions in practice.

scholarly journals The impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 19423-19454
Author(s):  
D. Wang ◽  
W. Jia ◽  
S. C. Olsen ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles ◽  
M. K. Dubey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Cell ◽  
Internal Combustion Engine ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
The Other ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

scholarly journals Quest for Sustainability: Life-Cycle Emissions Assessment of Electric Vehicles Considering Newer Li-Ion Batteries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arminda Almeida ◽  
Nuno Sousa ◽  
João Coutinho-Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Sustainable Transportation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Battery Capacity ◽  
Li Ion ◽  
The Impact

The number of battery electric vehicle models available in the market has been increasing, as well as their battery capacity, and these trends are likely to continue in the future as sustainable transportation goals rise in importance, supported by advances in battery chemistry and technology. Given the rapid pace of these advances, the impact of new chemistries, e.g., lithium-manganese rich cathode materials and silicon/graphite anodes, has not yet been thoroughly considered in the literature. This research estimates life cycle greenhouse gas and other air pollutants emissions of battery electric vehicles with different battery chemistries, including the above advances. The analysis methodology, which uses the greenhouse gases, regulated emissions, and energy use in transportation (GREET) life-cycle assessment model, considers 8 battery types, 13 electricity generation mixes with different predominant primary energy sources, and 4 vehicle segments (small, medium, large, and sport utility vehicles), represented by prototype vehicles, with both battery replacement and non-replacement during the life cycle. Outputs are expressed as emissions ratios to the equivalent petrol internal combustion engine vehicle and two-way analysis of variance is used to test results for statistical significance. Results show that newer Li-ion battery technology can yield significant improvements over older battery chemistries, which can be as high as 60% emissions reduction, depending on pollutant type and electricity generation mix.

scholarly journals Brexit and the UK Automotive Industry

2017 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. R51-R59 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bailey ◽  
Lisa De Propris
Keyword(s):  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Past ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Star Performers ◽  
The Impact

The UK's automotive industry has been one of the ‘star performers’ of the UK economy in recent years – unlike most other manufacturing sectors. Output has increased by over 60 per cent since 2010 and there has been over £8 billion worth of investment in the industry in the past five years. The industry supports some 800,000 jobs in the UK. It is seen as having benefitted from EU membership. So what might Brexit mean for the UK automotive sector, and its workers? This paper considers short-run impacts, before turning to the impact of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows and then the nature of a possible trading relationship. Some brief reflections on policy implications round off the paper.

scholarly journals The Subsidized Green Revolution: The Impact of Public Incentives on the Automotive Industry to Promote Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) in the Period from 2010 to 2018

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5765
Author(s):  
Patrick Reimers
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Alternative Fuel ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Alternative Fuel Vehicles ◽  
The Impact

Throughout decades, conflicts related to the access and usage of various energy sources have caused political tensions between nations and confederations of states. Thus, partially to decrease the dependence on fossil fuels, a thorough transition towards renewable energies has been promoted by several regional and national governments as well as by multinational institutions such as the European Union. In this context, the automotive industry has particularly been held responsible for the production of negative externalities, such as global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions), noise and air pollution. To a notable extent, these externalities were caused by vehicles running on fossil fuels such as petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil. Accordingly, it is often argued that replacing vehicles run by internal combustion engines (ICEs) with so-called alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), particularly with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), is crucial to increase the sustainability of the transport sector. Moreover, several EU-member states aim to reduce the vehicle-related petrol and diesel demand to decrease their dependence on foreign energy sources. However, one must consider that there are important economic costs related to such a transition process. This paper evaluates the short-term and long-term effects of fiscal policies on the European automotive market in the period from 2010 to 2018, focusing on the impact of mentioned public incentives for AFVs. This public interventionism will be critically evaluated to examine the effectiveness of government incentives in promoting AFVs, particularly for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). The author argues that the rather positive sales evolution of AFVs was not caused by corresponding actual customer demand but mainly by governmental policies in an increasingly interventionist market. He acknowledges that the growing variety of available PEV models, the increasing driving range of electric vehicles, as well as their decreasing production costs due to economies of scale, have helped PEVs to become more competitive. However, the concern should be raised that mentioned public interventionism is unsustainable from a macroeconomic perspective, possibly leading to significant market distortion and a new artificial market bubble. The narrowed focus on battery electric vehicles prevents the market from further elaborating on other potentially more sustainable technologies. Moreover, from a geostrategic perspective, the transition of the European automotive industry towards electrification is likely to reduce the EU’s dependency on imported fossil fuels but enables several non-European automotive brands to conquer a significant market with their new competitive plug-in electric vehicle technologies.

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