East African gas-impacts for Australian LNG

Until recently, East Africa, with its complex geology and seemingly limited prospects, was the poor relation of the hydrocarbon provinces of West Africa. Since 2010, however, a string of successful exploration has resulted in offshore Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique, culminating in significant mergers and acquisitions and farming activities. Peter Coleman of Woodside described it as a potential game changer and a significant threat to the Australian LNG market. This extended abstract provides an overview of the basins and the discoveries, concentrating on the two most promising countries: Mozambique and Tanzania. The deals to date and the proposed LNG developments are also discussed. Also discussed is the petroleum regimes in each of these jurisdictions, the deals, the underlying title systems, the absence of regulation, and the key risks for parties transacting in that sector. An overview of applicable taxation regimes is supplied. This extended abstract then considers potential development scenarios and the relative advantages and disadvantages that East Africa has compared with Australia and the degree to which East Africa presents a threat to planned Australian projects. It is self-evident that the absence of infrastructure and modern petroleum systems of regulation challenge investment decisions.