The Hermes oil field: a small field takes wings
The Lambert field was discovered in 1973 with oil reservoired in Tithonian turbidites. It was viewed as uneconomic until 1996 when re-evaluation led to discovery of the adjacent Hermes oil accumulation by Lambert–2. The Lambert–3 producer was drilled nearby to Lambert–2 in 1997 and tied back to the Cossack-Pioneer floating production storage offloader (FPSO). Lambert–3 was expected to drain about 25 MMBBLs of oil, coming off plateau after one year and declining substantially thereafter; however, it had produced more than 52 MMBBLs of oil by late 2008 without any water cut and may produce much more in the next 15–20 years. In contrast, several appraisal and production wells drilled since in the adjacent Lambert accumulation have only produced modest recoveries. Why were the original deterministic views of the Lambert-Hermes field so far from present estimates? This paper describes the approach taken to re-assess the Lambert and Hermes oil accumulations. First, the traps were reviewed by framing the main uncertain variables followed by a rigorous scenario analysis of the field. The work was expedited by using a statistical design to substantially reduce the number of scenarios required for modelling and simulation. The results included a statistical analysis and produced a better view of the probable reserves ranges. Remarkably, after 11 years’ production the field potential warranted re-appraisal. The scenario analysis indicated which uncertain variables needed attention and helped to select well locations. The results of appraisal should decide between several re-development options. The main possibilities for new field development include: drilling of additional oil producers; water shut-off in some producers; an additional flow-line to de-bottleneck oil production from Lambert and Hermes; re-instatement of a gas-injection line for gas-lift of wells at high water-cut; and installation of a new manifold further north in the Hermes accumulation to optimise field recovery.