Resilience and Transformation

2010 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
The Future

Resilience and Transformation explores what factors contribute to Australia’s resilience, what trends are apparent, and what actions are required to better prepare us for the immediate and longer term future. Resilience is a word used more and more across societies worldwide as decision makers realise that predicting and controlling the future does not work and that preparing for uncertainty and surprise is vital. Many viewpoints have emerged on how to assess and achieve resilience of individuals, organisations, communities and ecosystems, but rarely has the resilience of a nation been considered. As Australia moves into a millennium that promises major economic, social, technological and environmental change, Australia21 has assembled some of Australia’s leading thinkers to give their perspectives on the extent and direction of resilience across our nation’s social, economic, ecological and disaster management systems.

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Culture in Managerial Processes Based on the Hofstede Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-210
Author(s):  
Dumitru Iancu ◽  
Dorel Badea
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cultural Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Organizational Problem ◽  
Cultural Structure

AbstractWe communicate and decide every day, but the complexity of the context in which we do these things is increasing. Today, the cultural structure of the organization’s members, due to the need to have competent employees in correlation with the established objectives, is somewhat puzzled and dynamical. Thus, the decision-makers must take into account (mandatory) the cultural basis of the subordinates when choosing the best alternative for solving an organizational problem. From this perspective, Hofstede’s model can be one of the explanatory modalities of the organization’s cultural characteristics as a basis to identify the action’s solutions in that organization for the future.

scholarly journals Meaningful, but effective? A critical evaluation of Ireland’s citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572199148
Author(s):  
Anthony Costello
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Participatory Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deliberative Process ◽  
Political Will ◽  
The Future

On the 25 March 2017, leaders of the EU27 and European Union (EU) institutions ratified the Rome Declaration. They committed to invite citizens to discuss Europe’s future and to provide recommendations that would facilitate their decision-makers in shaping their national positions on Europe. In response, citizens’ dialogues on the future of Europe were instituted across the Union to facilitate public participation in shaping Europe. This paper explores Ireland’s set of dialogues which took place during 2018. Although event organisers in Ireland applied a relatively atypical and more systematic and participatory approach to their dialogues, evidence suggests that Irelands’ dialogues were reminiscent of a public relations exercise which showcased the country’s commitment to incorporating citizens into the debate on Europe while avoiding a deliberative design which could have strengthened the quality of public discourse and the quality of public recommendations. Due to an absence of elite political will for a deliberative process, as well as structural weaknesses in design, participants’ recommendations lacked any clear and prescriptive direction which could shape Ireland’s national position on the future of Europe in any constructive or meaningful way.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

scholarly journals A statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-244
Author(s):  
Taha Radwan
Keyword(s):  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Statistical Study ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future

Abstract The spread of the COVID-19 started in Wuhan on December 31, 2019, and a powerful outbreak of the disease occurred there. According to the latest data, more than 165 million cases of COVID-19 infection have been detected in the world (last update May 19, 2021). In this paper, we propose a statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt. This study will help us to understand and study the evolution of this pandemic. Moreover, documenting of accurate data and taken policies in Egypt can help other countries to deal with this epidemic, and it will also be useful in the event that other similar viruses emerge in the future. We will apply a widely used model in order to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in the coming period, which is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model depicts the present behaviour of variables through linear relationship with their past values. The expected results will enable us to provide appropriate advice to decision-makers in Egypt on how to deal with this epidemic.

Future water-related risks and management options in the Mediterranean basin 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianela Fader ◽  
Carlo Giupponi ◽  
Selmin Burak ◽  
Hamouda Dakhlaoui ◽  
Aristeidis Koutroulis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate And Environmental Change ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Future ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

<p>The presentation will summarize the main findings of the chapter “Water”[1] of the report “Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future”. This report was published in November 2020 and prepared by 190 scientists from 25 countries, who belong to the scientific network “Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change”.</p><p>Water resources in the Mediterranean are scarce, unevenly distributed and often mismatching human and environmental needs. Approx. 180 million people in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries suffer from water scarcity (<1000 m<sup>3</sup> capita<sup>-1</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>). The main water use is for agriculture, and more specifically on the southern and eastern rim. Water demand for both tourism and agriculture peak in summer, potentially enhancing conflicts in the future. Municipal water use is particularly constrained in the south and will likely be exacerbated in the future by demographic and migration phenomena. Northern countries face additional risks in flood prone areas where urban settlements are rapidly increasing.</p><p>Climate change, in combination with demographic and socio-economic developments, has mainly negative consequences for the water cycle in the Mediterranean Basin, including reduced runoff and groundwater recharge, increased crop water requirements, increased conflicts among users, and increased risk of overexploitation and degradation. These impacts will be particularly severe for global warming higher than 2°C.</p><p>Adequate water supply and demand management offers some options to cope with risks. Technical solutions are available for improving water use efficiency and productivity, and increasing reuse. Seawater desalination is increasingly used as adaptation measure to reduce (potable) water scarcity in dry Mediterranean countries, despite known drawbacks in terms of environmental impacts and energy requirements. Promising solar technologies are under development, potentially reducing emissions and costs. Reuse of wastewater is a solution for agriculture and industrial activities but also recharge of aquifers. Inter-basin transfers may lead to controversies and conflicts. Construction of dams contributes to the reduction of water and energy scarcities, but with trade-offs in terms of social and environmental impacts.</p><p>Overall, water demand management, which increases water use efficiency and reduces water losses, is crucial for water governance for a sustainable development. Maintaining Mediterranean diet or coming back to it on the basis of locally produced foods and reducing food wastes may save water but also carbon emissions while having nutritional and health benefits.</p><div><br><div> <p>[1] <strong>Fader M.</strong>, Giupponi C., Burak S., Dakhlaoui H., Koutroulis A., Lange M.A., Llasat M.C., Pulido-Velazquez D., Sanz-Cobeña A. (2020): Water. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 57pp, in press. Download</p> </div> </div>

The Future of Primary Care

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 186-187
Author(s):  
RITAMARIE MOSCOLA
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Missed Appointments ◽  
Cultural Changes ◽  
Pediatric Education ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physician Relationship

To the Editor.— In the article "Primary Care: The Future of Pediatric Education"1 Dr Alpert addresses many issues facing pediatrics. I agree with his list of problems. However, I doubt that the social, economic, and cultural changes he describes will ever occur. My informal survey of pediatricians in practice is a song of frustration and boredom. The ringing telephone provides the rhythm. How does a patient-physician relationship develop in an environment of missed appointments, 3 AM emergency department visits, and managed care? Many families change physicians whenever employers change health benefits packages.

Geo-Information Support in Management of Urban Disasters

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-69
Author(s):  
Sisi Zlatanova ◽  
Peter van Oosterom ◽  
Edward Verbree
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Fire Departments ◽  
Urban Disaster ◽  
Disaster Situation ◽  
Actual Response

Within the management of urban disasters, geo-information systems (GIS) are used in any of the phases of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery as most of the required data have a spatial component. Examples of GIS-based decision support systems on mitigation are found in simulation models of floods and earthquakes. In the preparation phase all kinds of spatial observations and models can be used to predict which areas will be threatened. To prepare for adequately responding in case of an actual disaster, these systems are capable of developing realistic scenarios that are used within training and virtual reality (VR) systems. During the actual response phase geo-information is used intensively: for getting an impression of the environment, for routing, for obtaining up-to-date information about the actual situation, etc. In the recovery phase, there is often a high public and political interest to judge the situation - comparing the pre- and post-disaster situation - and to set priorities for the rebuilding. Despite this potential of GIS-based support for urban disaster management, the use of these systems or even the utilisation of geo-information itself is still very limited in countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The emergency management is usually done with paper maps that are seldom up-to-date. Useful systems to support decision makers in any of the phases of disaster management are nearly completely lacking. To improve the work of decision makers and rescue teams, different premises have to be archived in relation to: meta-information to provide insight on the availability and usefulness of the geo-information itself, the technical equipment of the rescue teams (i.e. communication devices and field computers), and the up-to-date information from the affected areas (images, observations, reports). This paper suggests a framework for “urban and urgent” disaster management to facilitate the work of police forces, fire departments, ambulances and government coordinators in disaster situations by extending and improving the utilisation of geo-information. Within a pre-disaster situation, geo-information support management further can assist planning for prevention and mitigation.

scholarly journals Aplicação de técnica estatística multivariada em indicadores de sustentabilidade nos municípios do Marajó-PA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (46) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Diêgo Lima Crispim ◽  
Lindemberg Lima Fernandes ◽  
Roberta Luiza de Oliveira Albuquerque
Keyword(s):  
Euclidean Distance ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dissimilarity Matrix ◽  
Homogeneous Groups ◽  
Hierarchical Grouping ◽  
Grouping Method ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Territorial Division

Indicators are important tools to guide and assist decision-makers. They are also important to get to know the scenario of a given place and monitor its development. This study aimed to analyze the behavior of the municipalities of Marajó-PA through indicators that cover social, economic, housing and sanitation, using a statistical technique of multivariate analysis to group these into a small number of homogeneous groups. In order to choose the indicators, we carried out a checklist of national, regional and local academic papers dealing with sustainability. Then, the indicators were standardized according to the different units and scales of measurement, not influencing the result and presenting similar weights in the calculation of the similarity coefficient. The measure of dissimilarity used was the euclidean distance and for the composition of the groupings the Ward and k-Means methods were applied. The result obtained using Ward’s hierarchical grouping method enabled the reduction of the numbers of municipalities to a number of 4 probable groups with similar attributes within the group and distinct among the others. It also presented a cofenetic correlation coefficient (CCC) of (r = 0.81), indicating a good degree of fit between the dendrogram and the dissimilarity matrix. The results indicated that the formation of the clusters and the municipalities integrated in them presented similarity both in the hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods. In the k-means method it was found that almost all municipalities that make territorial division remained within the same group.

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