scholarly journals Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product of the Philippines using Bayesian artificial neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jackie D. Urrutia ◽  
Paul Ryan A. Longhas ◽  
Francis Leo T. Mingo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals STUDI KOMPARASI PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN METODE FAST FOURIER TRANSFORMATION (FFT), AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DAN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (02) ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
Dyah Susilokarti ◽  
Sigit Supadmo Arif ◽  
Sahid Susanto ◽  
Lilik Sutiarso
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fast Fourier Transformation ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Precipitation Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Optimum climate condition and water availability are essential to support strategic venue and time for plants to grow and produce.  Precipitation prediction is needed to determine how much precipitation will provide water for plants on each stage of growth. Nowadays, the high variability of precipitation calls for a prediction model that will accurately foreseethe precipitation condition in the future. The prediction conducted is based on time-series data analysis. The research aims to comparethe effectiveness of three precipitation prediction methods, which are Fast Forier Transformation (FFT), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN).  Their respective performances are determined by their Mean Square Error (MSE) values.  Methods with highest correlation values and lowest MSE shows the best performance. The MSE result for FFT is 14,92; ARIMA is 17,49; and  ANN is 0,07. This research concluded that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method showed best performance compare to the other two because it had produced a prediction with the lowest MSE value.Keywords: Precipitation prediction, Fast Forier Transformation (FFT), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ABSTRAKKondisi iklim dan ketersediaan air yang optimal bagi pertumbuhan dan perkembangan tanaman sangat diperlukan dalam upaya mendukung strategi budidaya tanaman sesuai ruang dan waktu. Prediksi curah hujan sangat diperlukan untuk untuk mengetahui sejauh mana curah hujan dapat memenuhi kebutuhan air pada setiap tahap pertumbuhantanaman. Variabilitas curah hujan yang tinggi saat ini, membutuhkan pemodelan yang dapat memprediksi secara akurat bagaimana kondisi curah hujan dimasa yang akan datang. Prediksi yang dilakukan adalah prediksi berdasarkan urutan waktu ().  Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk membandingkan akurasi prediksi curah hujan antara metode  (FFT),  (ARIMA) dan (ANN). Kinerja ketiga metode yang digunakan dilihat dari nilai  (MSE). Metode dengan nilai korelasi tertinggi dan nilai MSE terkecil menunjukkan kinerja terbaik. Hasil penelitan untuk FFT diperoleh nilai MSE = 14,92, ARIMA = 17,49 sedangkan ANN = 0,07. Ini menunjukkan bahwa metode   (ANN) menunjukkan kinerja yang paling baik diantara dua metode lainnya karena menghasilkan prediksi yangmempunyai nilai MSE terkecil.Kata kunci: Prediksi curah hujan,FFT, ARIMA dan ANN 

scholarly journals Forecasting Rainfall in Mauritius using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Jayrani Cheeneebash ◽  
Ashvin Harradon ◽  
Ashvin Gopaul
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Absolute Percentage Difference ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

In this paper, two forecasting methods namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the artificial neural network (ANN) are studied to forecast the amount of rainfall in Mauritius. Indeed due to the geographical location of Mauritius, the rainfall pattern is deeply affected by the season prevailing whereby the period of summer receives a relatively high amount of rainfall when compared to winter. As such, forecasting rainfall can help the local authorities to manage the distribution of water in the country especially during droughts. The results obtained from both methods are compared in terms of their mean square error, mean absolute difference and mean absolute percentage difference. It is then seen that artificial neural network is a much better model as it is more accurate. This is due to its nonlinearity characteristic and ability to learn and train itself.

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