scholarly journals Online refinement of day‐ahead forecasting using intraday data for campus‐level load

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanfan Ji ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Guangchao Geng ◽  
Quanyuan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Intraday Data ◽  
Campus Level

scholarly journals UNIT ROOT TEST WITH HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Sébastien Laurent ◽  
Shuping Shi
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Intraday Data

Deviations of asset prices from the random walk dynamic imply the predictability of asset returns and thus have important implications for portfolio construction and risk management. This paper proposes a real-time monitoring device for such deviations using intraday high-frequency data. The proposed procedures are based on unit root tests with in-fill asymptotics but extended to take the empirical features of high-frequency financial data (particularly jumps) into consideration. We derive the limiting distributions of the tests under both the null hypothesis of a random walk with jumps and the alternative of mean reversion/explosiveness with jumps. The limiting results show that ignoring the presence of jumps could potentially lead to severe size distortions of both the standard left-sided (against mean reversion) and right-sided (against explosiveness) unit root tests. The simulation results reveal satisfactory performance of the proposed tests even with data from a relatively short time span. As an illustration, we apply the procedure to the Nasdaq composite index at the 10-minute frequency over two periods: around the peak of the dot-com bubble and during the 2015–2106 stock market sell-off. We find strong evidence of explosiveness in asset prices in late 1999 and mean reversion in late 2015. We also show that accounting for jumps when testing the random walk hypothesis on intraday data is empirically relevant and that ignoring jumps can lead to different conclusions.

Does time-varying illiquidity matter for the Indian stock market? Evidence from high-frequency data

2021 ◽  
pp. 031289622110102
Author(s):  
Mousumi Bhattacharya ◽  
Sharad Nath Bhattacharya ◽  
Sumit Kumar Jha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Holiday Effects ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

This article examines variations in illiquidity in the Indian stock market, using intraday data. Panel regression reveals prevalent day-of-the-week, month, and holiday effects in illiquidity across industries, especially during exogenous shock periods. Illiquidity fluctuations are higher during the second and third quarters. The ranking of most illiquid stocks varies, depending on whether illiquidity is measured using an adjusted or unadjusted Amihud measure. Using pooled quantile regression, we note that illiquidity plays an important asymmetric role in explaining stock returns under up- and down-market conditions in the presence of open interest and volatility. The impact of illiquidity is more severe during periods of extreme high and low returns. JEL Classification: G10, G12

scholarly journals Improved Dividend Estimation from Intraday Quotes

Entropy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Pontus Söderbäck ◽  
Jörgen Blomvall ◽  
Martin Singull
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Least Squares Estimates ◽  
Estimation Quality

Liquid financial markets, such as the options market of the S&P 500 index, create vast amounts of data every day, i.e., so-called intraday data. However, this highly granular data is often reduced to single-time when used to estimate financial quantities. This under-utilization of the data may reduce the quality of the estimates. In this paper, we study the impacts on estimation quality when using intraday data to estimate dividends. The methodology is based on earlier linear regression (ordinary least squares) estimates, which have been adapted to intraday data. Further, the method is also generalized in two aspects. First, the dividends are expressed as present values of future dividends rather than dividend yields. Second, to account for heteroscedasticity, the estimation methodology was formulated as a weighted least squares, where the weights are determined from the market data. This method is compared with a traditional method on out-of-sample S&P 500 European options market data. The results show that estimations based on intraday data have, with statistical significance, a higher quality than the corresponding single-times estimates. Additionally, the two generalizations of the methodology are shown to improve the estimation quality further.

scholarly journals Day Of The Week dan Monday Effect: Fenomena yang Terbuktikan Tidak Konsisten Di Pasar Modal Indonesia

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumiyana Sumiyana
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Short Interval ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Trading Frequency ◽  
Monday Effect ◽  
Methodological Research ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Observation Period

This research critiques Sumiyana (2007a) that is actually weak methodological research design. Sumiyana (2007a) investigates trading and nontrading periods return only, or it doesn’t split intra-day return into short interval period. Although Sumiyana (2007a) found strongly the phenomenon of the Monday effect, but it could not capture the inside occurrence in the intra-trading periods. This study examines the day of the week and Monday effect phenomena in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using intraday data in every 30 minutes interval. Samples of the data are the firms listed in LQ45. Sequentially, samples are filtered to stocks that actively traded in the Indonesian Stock Exchange based on trading frequency in observation period from January to December 2006. This study uses regression analysis with multiple dummies constructed by separating trading periods in every day into 12 return periods. This research finds that day of the week phenomena occur consistently in Indonesian Stock Exchange, but the occurrence are not evenly in the same day. In addition, this study concludes that Monday effect exists partially and incidentally only.

scholarly journals Risk Model Validation: An Intraday VaR and ES Approach Using the Multiplicative Component GARCH

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ravi Summinga-Sonagadu ◽  
Jason Narsoo
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Expected Shortfall ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Distributional Assumptions ◽  
T Distribution

In this paper, we employ 99% intraday value-at-risk (VaR) and intraday expected shortfall (ES) as risk metrics to assess the competency of the Multiplicative Component Generalised Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (MC-GARCH) models based on the 1-min EUR/USD exchange rate returns. Five distributional assumptions for the innovation process are used to analyse their effects on the modelling and forecasting performance. The high-frequency volatility models were validated in terms of in-sample fit based on various statistical and graphical tests. A more rigorous validation procedure involves testing the predictive power of the models. Therefore, three backtesting procedures were used for the VaR, namely, the Kupiec’s test, a duration-based backtest, and an asymmetric VaR loss function. Similarly, three backtests were employed for the ES: a regression-based backtesting procedure, the Exceedance Residual backtest and the V-Tests. The validation results show that non-normal distributions are best suited for both model fitting and forecasting. The MC-GARCH(1,1) model under the Generalised Error Distribution (GED) innovation assumption gave the best fit to the intraday data and gave the best results for the ES forecasts. However, the asymmetric Skewed Student’s-t distribution for the innovation process provided the best results for the VaR forecasts. This paper presents the results of the first empirical study (to the best of the authors’ knowledge) in: (1) forecasting the intraday Expected Shortfall (ES) under different distributional assumptions for the MC-GARCH model; (2) assessing the MC-GARCH model under the Generalised Error Distribution (GED) innovation; (3) evaluating and ranking the VaR predictability of the MC-GARCH models using an asymmetric loss function.

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