A hybrid model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on wavelet and support vector machine

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ni-ya ◽  
Qian Zheng ◽  
Meng Xiao-feng
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Kang ◽  
Qingxiong Tan ◽  
Xiaohui Yuan ◽  
Xiaohui Lei ◽  
Yanbin Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Superposition Principle ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Speed Prediction

Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Wang ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Zhongjin Hu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Comparison Results

Power systems could be at risk when the power-grid collapse accident occurs. As a clean and renewable resource, wind energy plays an increasingly vital role in reducing air pollution and wind power generation becomes an important way to produce electrical power. Therefore, accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting are in need. In this research, a novel short-term wind speed forecasting portfolio has been proposed using the following three procedures: (I) data preprocessing: apart from the regular normalization preprocessing, the data are preprocessed through empirical model decomposition (EMD), which reduces the effect of noise on the wind speed data; (II) artificially intelligent parameter optimization introduction: the unknown parameters in the support vector machine (SVM) model are optimized by the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm; (III) parameter optimization approach modification: an improved parameter optimization approach, called the SDCS model, based on the CS algorithm and the steepest descent (SD) method is proposed. The comparison results show that the simple and effective portfolio EMD-SDCS-SVM produces promising predictions and has better performance than the individual forecasting components, with very small root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunli Wu ◽  
Huaxing Lin
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition

With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, wind speed forecasting plays an important role in energy generation planning, power grid integration and turbine maintenance scheduling. This study proposes a hybrid wind speed forecasting model to enhance prediction performance. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) was applied to decompose the original wind speed series into different sub-series with various frequencies. A least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model with the pertinent parameters being optimized by a bat algorithm (BA) was established to forecast those sub-series extracted from VMD. The ultimate forecast of wind speed can be obtained by accumulating the prediction values of each sub-series. The results show that: (a) VMD-BA-LSSVM displays better capacity for the prediction of ultra short-term (15 min) and short-term (1 h) wind speed forecasting; (b) the proposed forecasting model was compared with wavelet decomposition (WD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and the results indicate that VMD has stronger decomposition ability than WD and EEMD, thus, significant improvements in forecasting accuracy were obtained with the proposed forecasting models compared with other forecasting methods.

scholarly journals Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting based on support vector machine with combined kernel function and similar data

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian He ◽  
Jingle Xu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Abstract The accuracy of wind power prediction is very important for the stable operation of a power system. Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is an effective way to ensure real-time and accurate wind power prediction. In this paper, a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on a support vector machine with a combined kernel function and similar data is proposed. Similar training data are selected based on the wind tendency, and a combination of two kinds of kernel functions is applied in forecasting using a support vector machine. The forecasting results for a wind farm in Ningxia Province indicate that a combination of kernel functions with complementary advantages outperforms each single function, and forecasting models based on grouped wind data with a similar tendency could reduce the forecasting error. Furthermore, more accurate wind forecasting results ensure better wind power prediction.

An application of backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine for prediction of short-term wind speed

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongda Tian ◽  
Yi Ren ◽  
Gang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Backtracking Search ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed prediction is an important technology in the wind power field; however, because of their chaotic nature, predicting wind speed accurately is difficult. Aims at this challenge, a backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine model is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. In this article, the least squares support vector machine is chosen as the short-term wind speed prediction model and backtracking search optimization algorithm is used to optimize the important parameters which influence the least squares support vector machine regression model. Furthermore, the optimal parameters of the model are obtained, and the short-term wind speed prediction model of least squares support vector machine is established through parameter optimization. For time-varying systems similar to short-term wind speed time series, a model updating method based on prediction error accuracy combined with sliding window strategy is proposed. When the prediction model does not match the actual short-term wind model, least squares support vector machine trains and re-establishes. This model updating method avoids the mismatch problem between prediction model and actual wind speed data. The actual collected short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multi-step prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is carried out. The simulation results show that backtracking search optimization algorithm–based least squares support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability for the short-term wind speed. At the same time, the prediction performance indicators are also improved. The prediction result is that root mean square error is 0.1248, mean absolute error is 0.1374, mean absolute percentile error is 0.1589% and R2 is 0.9648. When the short-term wind speed varies from 0 to 4 m/s, the average value of absolute prediction error is 0.1113 m/s, and average value of absolute relative prediction error is 8.7111%. The proposed prediction model in this article has high engineering application value.

Research on Particle Swarm Optimization Least Square Support Vector Machine for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

2014 ◽  
Vol 511-512 ◽  
pp. 927-930
Author(s):  
Shuai Zhang ◽  
Hai Rui Wang ◽  
Jin Huang ◽  
He Liu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

In the paper, the forecast problems of wind speed are considered. In order to enhance the redaction accuracy of the wind speed, this article is about a research on particle swarm optimization least square support vector machine for short-term wind speed prediction (PSO-LS-SVM). Firstly, the prediction models are built by using least square support vector machine based on particle swarm optimization, this model is used to predict the wind speed next 48 hours. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy, on this basis, introduction of the offset optimization method. Finally large amount of experiments and measurement data comparison compensation verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the research on particle swarm optimization least square support vector machine for short-term wind speed prediction, Thereby reducing the short-term wind speed prediction error, very broad application prospects.

Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Prediction Using Fuzzy Information Granulation-Support Vector Machine

2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 814-817
Author(s):  
Xiao Fu ◽  
Dong Xiang Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Fluctuation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Information Granulation ◽  
Fuzzy Information Granulation

The power fluctuation of wind turbine often causes serious problems in electricity grids. Therefore, short term prediction of wind speed and power as to eliminate the uncertainty determined crucially the development of wind energy. Compared with physical methods, support vector machine (SVM) as an intelligent artificial method is more general and shows better nonlinear modeling capacity. A model which combined fuzzy information granulation with SVM method was developed and implemented in short term future trend prediction of wind speed and power. The data, including the daily wind speed and power, from a wind farm in northern China were used to evaluate the proposed method. The prediction results show that the proposed model performs better and more stable than the standard SVM model when apply them into the same data set.

scholarly journals Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Regression and Enhanced Support Vector Machine

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6319
Author(s):  
Chia-Sheng Tu ◽  
Chih-Ming Hong ◽  
Hsi-Shan Huang ◽  
Chiung-Hsing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Power Forecasting

This paper presents a short-term wind power forecasting model for the next day based on historical marine weather and corresponding wind power output data. Due the large amount of historical marine weather and wind power data, we divided the data into clusters using the data regression (DR) algorithm to get meaningful training data, so as to reduce the number of modeling data and improve the efficiency of computing. The regression model was constructed based on the principle of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). We carried out wind speed forecasting for one hour and one day and used the correlation between marine wind speed and the corresponding wind power regression model to realize an indirect wind power forecasting model. Proper parameter settings for LSSVM are important to ensure its efficiency and accuracy. In this paper, we used an enhanced bee swarm optimization (EBSO) to perform the parameter optimization for LSSVM, which not only improved the forecast model availability, but also improved the forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals A Compound Structure for Wind Speed Forecasting Using MKLSSVM with Feature Selection and Parameter Optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sizhou Sun ◽  
Jingqi Fu ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Nan Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

The aims of this study contribute to a new hybrid model by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with multikernel function least square support vector machine (MKLSSVM) optimized by hybrid gravitation search algorithm (HGSA) for short-term wind speed prediction. In the forecasting process, EEMD is adopted to make the original wind speed data decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual firstly. Then, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to identify the correlation between the corresponding decomposed components. Subsequently, the MKLSSVM using multikernel function of radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial (Poly) kernel function by weight coefficient is exploited as core forecasting engine to make the short-term wind speed prediction. To improve the regression performance, the binary-value GSA (BGSA) in HGSA is utilized as feature selection approach to remove the ineffective candidates and reconstruct the most relevant feature input-matrix for the forecasting engine, while real-value GSA (RGSA) makes the parameter combination optimization of MKLSSVM model. In the end, these respective decomposed subseries forecasting results are combined into the final forecasting values by aggregate calculation. Numerical results and comparable analysis illustrate the excellent performance of the EEMD-HGSA-MKLSSVM model when applied in the short-term wind speed forecasting.

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