scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunli Wu ◽  
Huaxing Lin
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition

With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, wind speed forecasting plays an important role in energy generation planning, power grid integration and turbine maintenance scheduling. This study proposes a hybrid wind speed forecasting model to enhance prediction performance. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) was applied to decompose the original wind speed series into different sub-series with various frequencies. A least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model with the pertinent parameters being optimized by a bat algorithm (BA) was established to forecast those sub-series extracted from VMD. The ultimate forecast of wind speed can be obtained by accumulating the prediction values of each sub-series. The results show that: (a) VMD-BA-LSSVM displays better capacity for the prediction of ultra short-term (15 min) and short-term (1 h) wind speed forecasting; (b) the proposed forecasting model was compared with wavelet decomposition (WD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and the results indicate that VMD has stronger decomposition ability than WD and EEMD, thus, significant improvements in forecasting accuracy were obtained with the proposed forecasting models compared with other forecasting methods.

An application of backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine for prediction of short-term wind speed

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongda Tian ◽  
Yi Ren ◽  
Gang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Backtracking Search ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed prediction is an important technology in the wind power field; however, because of their chaotic nature, predicting wind speed accurately is difficult. Aims at this challenge, a backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine model is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. In this article, the least squares support vector machine is chosen as the short-term wind speed prediction model and backtracking search optimization algorithm is used to optimize the important parameters which influence the least squares support vector machine regression model. Furthermore, the optimal parameters of the model are obtained, and the short-term wind speed prediction model of least squares support vector machine is established through parameter optimization. For time-varying systems similar to short-term wind speed time series, a model updating method based on prediction error accuracy combined with sliding window strategy is proposed. When the prediction model does not match the actual short-term wind model, least squares support vector machine trains and re-establishes. This model updating method avoids the mismatch problem between prediction model and actual wind speed data. The actual collected short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multi-step prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is carried out. The simulation results show that backtracking search optimization algorithm–based least squares support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability for the short-term wind speed. At the same time, the prediction performance indicators are also improved. The prediction result is that root mean square error is 0.1248, mean absolute error is 0.1374, mean absolute percentile error is 0.1589% and R2 is 0.9648. When the short-term wind speed varies from 0 to 4 m/s, the average value of absolute prediction error is 0.1113 m/s, and average value of absolute relative prediction error is 8.7111%. The proposed prediction model in this article has high engineering application value.

scholarly journals Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Regression and Enhanced Support Vector Machine

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6319
Author(s):  
Chia-Sheng Tu ◽  
Chih-Ming Hong ◽  
Hsi-Shan Huang ◽  
Chiung-Hsing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Power Forecasting

This paper presents a short-term wind power forecasting model for the next day based on historical marine weather and corresponding wind power output data. Due the large amount of historical marine weather and wind power data, we divided the data into clusters using the data regression (DR) algorithm to get meaningful training data, so as to reduce the number of modeling data and improve the efficiency of computing. The regression model was constructed based on the principle of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). We carried out wind speed forecasting for one hour and one day and used the correlation between marine wind speed and the corresponding wind power regression model to realize an indirect wind power forecasting model. Proper parameter settings for LSSVM are important to ensure its efficiency and accuracy. In this paper, we used an enhanced bee swarm optimization (EBSO) to perform the parameter optimization for LSSVM, which not only improved the forecast model availability, but also improved the forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Kang ◽  
Qingxiong Tan ◽  
Xiaohui Yuan ◽  
Xiaohui Lei ◽  
Yanbin Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Superposition Principle ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Speed Prediction

Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Wang ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Zhongjin Hu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Comparison Results

Power systems could be at risk when the power-grid collapse accident occurs. As a clean and renewable resource, wind energy plays an increasingly vital role in reducing air pollution and wind power generation becomes an important way to produce electrical power. Therefore, accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting are in need. In this research, a novel short-term wind speed forecasting portfolio has been proposed using the following three procedures: (I) data preprocessing: apart from the regular normalization preprocessing, the data are preprocessed through empirical model decomposition (EMD), which reduces the effect of noise on the wind speed data; (II) artificially intelligent parameter optimization introduction: the unknown parameters in the support vector machine (SVM) model are optimized by the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm; (III) parameter optimization approach modification: an improved parameter optimization approach, called the SDCS model, based on the CS algorithm and the steepest descent (SD) method is proposed. The comparison results show that the simple and effective portfolio EMD-SDCS-SVM produces promising predictions and has better performance than the individual forecasting components, with very small root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors.

scholarly journals Short-term wind power prediction based on hybrid variational mode decomposition and least squares support vector machine optimized by improved salp swarm algorithm model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2125 (1) ◽  
pp. 012012
Author(s):  
Zhongde Su ◽  
Huacai Lu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Salp Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Swarm Algorithm

Abstract To improve the accuracy of wind power prediction, a short-term wind power prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and improved salp swarm algorithm (ISSA) optimized least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is proposed. In the model, the variational modal decomposition is used to decompose the wind power sequence into multiple eigenmode components with limited bandwidth. The improved salp swarm algorithm is employed to tune the regularization parameter and kernel parameter in LSSVM. The proposed wind power prediction strategy using mean one-hour historical wind power data collected from a wind farm located in zhejiang, China. Compared with other prediction models illustrate the better prediction performance of VMD-ISSA-LSSVM.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction on Base of Improved Least Squares Support Vector Machine

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1972-1975
Author(s):  
Zheng Zhao ◽  
Long Xin Zhang ◽  
Hai Tao Liu ◽  
Zi Rui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of significance to improve the ability to coordinate operation of a wind farm with a power system and ensure the safety of power grid operation. According to the randomness and volatility of wind speed, it is put forward that a WD_GA_LS_SVM short-term wind speed combination prediction model on basis of Wavelet decomposition (WD), Genetic alogorithms (GA) optimization and Least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM). Short-term wind speed prediction is carried out and compared with the neural network prediction model with use of the measured data of a wind farm. The results of error analysis indicate the combination prediction model selected is of higher prediction accuracy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document