West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations

Nature ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 447 (7145) ◽  
pp. 710-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon L. LaDeau ◽  
A. Marm Kilpatrick ◽  
Peter P. Marra
2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (46) ◽  
pp. 14290-14294 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Luke George ◽  
Ryan J. Harrigan ◽  
Joseph A. LaManna ◽  
David F. DeSante ◽  
James F. Saracco ◽  
...  

Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change.


2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (12) ◽  
pp. 2810-2820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley A. Langevin ◽  
Richard A. Bowen ◽  
Wanichaya N. Ramey ◽  
Todd A. Sanders ◽  
Payal D. Maharaj ◽  
...  

The hallmark attribute of North American West Nile virus (WNV) strains has been high pathogenicity in certain bird species. Surprisingly, this avian virulent WNV phenotype has not been observed during its geographical expansion into the Caribbean, Central America and South America. One WNV variant (TM171-03-pp1) isolated in Mexico has demonstrated an attenuated phenotype in two widely distributed North American bird species, American crows (AMCRs) and house sparrows (HOSPs). In order to identify genetic determinants associated with attenuated avian replication of the TM171-03-pp1 variant, chimeric viruses between the NY99 and Mexican strains were generated, and their replicative capacity was assessed in cell culture and in AMCR, HOSP and house finch avian hosts. The results demonstrated that mutations in both the pre-membrane (prM-I141T) and envelope (E-S156P) genes mediated the attenuation phenotype of the WNV TM171-03-pp1 variant in a chicken macrophage cell line and in all three avian species assayed. Inclusion of the prM-I141T and E-S156P TM171-03-pp1 mutations in the NY99 backbone was necessary to achieve the avian attenuation level of the Mexican virus. Furthermore, reciprocal incorporation of both prM-T141I and E-P156S substitutions into the Mexican virus genome was necessary to generate a virus that exhibited avian virulence equivalent to the NY99 virus. These structural changes may indicate the presence of new evolutionary pressures exerted on WNV populations circulating in Latin America or may signify a genetic bottleneck that has constrained their epiornitic potential in alternative geographical locations.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert A Gayle

Year-to-year emergence of West Nile virus has been sporadic and notoriously hard to predict. In Europe, 2018 saw a dramatic increase in the number of cases and locations affected. In this work, we demonstrate a novel method for predicting outbreaks and understanding what drives them. This method creates a simple model for each region that directly explains how each variable affects risk. Behind the scenes, each local explanation model is produced by a state-of-the-art AI engine. This engine unpacks and restructures output from an XGBoost machine learning ensemble. XGBoost, well-known for its predictive accuracy, has always been considered a "black box" system. Not any more. With only minimal data curation and no "tuning", our model predicted where the 2018 outbreak would occur with an AUC of 97%. This model was trained using data from 2010-2016 that reflected many domains of knowledge. Climate, sociodemographic, economic, and biodiversity data were all included. Our model furthermore explained the specific drivers of the 2018 outbreak for each affected region. These effect predictions were found to be consistent with the research literature in terms of priority, direction, magnitude, and size of effect. Aggregation and statistical analysis of local effects revealed strong cross-scale interactions. From this, we concluded that the 2018 outbreak was driven by large-scale climatic anomalies enhancing the local effect of mosquito vectors. We also identified substantial areas across Europe at risk for sudden outbreak, similar to that experienced in 2018. Taken as a whole, these findings highlight the role of climate in the emergence and transmission of West Nile virus. Furthermore, they demonstrate the crucial role that the emerging "eXplainable AI" (XAI) paradigm will have in predicting and controlling disease.


2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Del Amo ◽  
Francisco Llorente ◽  
Jordi Figuerola ◽  
Ramón C Soriguer ◽  
Ana M Moreno ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1448-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura D Kramer ◽  
Alexander T Ciota ◽  
A Marm Kilpatrick

Abstract The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) to North America in 1999 and its subsequent rapid spread across the Americas demonstrated the potential impact of arboviral introductions to new regions, and this was reinforced by the subsequent introductions of chikungunya and Zika viruses. Extensive studies of host–pathogen–vector–environment interactions over the past two decades have illuminated many aspects of the ecology and evolution of WNV and other arboviruses, including the potential for pathogen adaptation to hosts and vectors, the influence of climate, land use and host immunity on transmission ecology, and the difficulty in preventing the establishment of a zoonotic pathogen with abundant wildlife reservoirs. Here, we focus on outstanding questions concerning the introduction, spread, and establishment of WNV in the Americas, and what it can teach us about the future of arboviral introductions. Key gaps in our knowledge include the following: viral adaptation and coevolution of hosts, vectors and the virus; the mechanisms and species involved in the large-scale spatial spread of WNV; how weather modulates WNV transmission; the drivers of large-scale variation in enzootic transmission; the ecology of WNV transmission in Latin America; and the relative roles of each component of host–virus–vector interactions in spatial and temporal variation in WNV transmission. Integrative studies that examine multiple factors and mechanisms simultaneously are needed to advance our knowledge of mechanisms driving transmission.


2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-593 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Gamino ◽  
E. Escribano-Romero ◽  
A.-B. Blázquez ◽  
A.-V. Gutiérrez-Guzmán ◽  
M.-Á. Martín-Acebes ◽  
...  

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 805-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cassie C. Jansen ◽  
Cameron E. Webb ◽  
Judith A. Northill ◽  
Scott A. Ritchie ◽  
Richard C. Russell ◽  
...  

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