Intuited consequences of prediction biases and their effects on unrealistic optimism

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron M. Sackett ◽  
David A. Armor
Keyword(s):  
Unrealistic Optimism

Unrealistic Optimism and Asymmetry in the Pricing of Equity Tail Risk

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Chow ◽  
Jingrui (Victoria) Li ◽  
Ben J. Sopranzetti
Keyword(s):  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Tail Risk

Unrealistic Optimism and Perceived Control: Role of Personal Competence

2002 ◽  
Vol 91 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Fernández-Castro ◽  
Joaquim T. Limonero ◽  
Tatiana Rovira ◽  
Samanta Albaina
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
Perceived Control ◽  
Emotional Valence ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Best Friend ◽  
Perception Of Control ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Future Events

This work analyzed the effects of unrealistic optimism in the interaction between the emotional valence of future events, the perception of control over these events, and the person with whom one compares oneself. It was hypothesized that, if the person of comparison is judged as very competent, a pessimistic bias should be produced. Likelihood of four different types of events (positive and controllable, positive and uncontrollable, negative and controllable, and negative and uncontrollable) were rated by 133 university students (22 men and 111 women) for themselves, for an average student, for their best friend, and for a bright friend. A pessimistic bias was observed on the relative likelihood of the events when the comparison was made between oneself and a competent and bright friend, when events were perceived as controllable, especially positive ones. Not enough is known, however, to provide meaningful interpretation at present; that must await further data and theoretical development.

scholarly journals Reaping the Benefits and Avoiding the Risks: Unrealistic Optimism in the Health Domain

Risk Analysis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 792-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaniv Hanoch ◽  
Jonathan Rolison ◽  
Alexandra M. Freund
Keyword(s):  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Health Domain

scholarly journals Demographic and Psychological Factors and Preparation for Earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Matthew John Spittal
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Psychological Variables ◽  
Major Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Preparation ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Control Risk

<p>New Zealand, like many countries, is at risk from a number of natural disasters including flooding, volcanoes, and earthquakes. The risk of exposure to such disasters over the course of a lifetime is substantial (Norris, 1992). Despite this, many New Zealanders are unprepared for the consequences of a natural disaster; nearly a quarter of New Zealand homes have flaws which could see them seriously damaged or detached from their foundations in a major earthquake (Ansell & Taber, 1996). Recent research suggests that psychological variables contribute to people's lack of preparation for natural disasters. A limitation, however, of much of this research has been the lack of attention paid to the psychometric quality of the instruments used to measure key constructs. The present investigation aimed to examine the relationships between different dimensions of personality and earthquake preparation in a large sample of Wellington residents using psychometrically sound measures. Measures of locus of control, risk, and earthquake preparation were first evaluated in a series of studies using both university students and Wellington residents. These questionnaires were then administered, along with items pertaining to the construct of unrealistic optimism, to a total of 358 Wellington residents. The results showed that locus of control, risk precaution, home ownership, and length of residence were significant predictors of earthquake preparation. Moreover, people exhibited evidence of unrealistic optimism, as demonstrated by both a belief that they were better prepared for a major earthquake than an acquaintance, or other Wellingtonians, and by a belief that they were personally less likely than others to suffer injury in a major earthquake. The implications of these results for emergency managers are discussed and several recommendations are made.</p>

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