scholarly journals Sea Level 2017 Conference Looks to Coastal Sea Level Rise Impact

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlef Stammer ◽  
Roderik van de Wal ◽  
Robert Nicholls
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Open Science ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Science Conference ◽  
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

International World Climate Research Programme/Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (WCRP/IOC) Open Science Conference on Regional Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts; New York, New York, 10–14 July 2017

scholarly journals Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (47) ◽  
pp. 13342-13347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
Luke P. Jackson ◽  
Riccardo E. M. Riva ◽  
Aslak Grinsted ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Bronze Age ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Global Estimate ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Global Sea Level

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

scholarly journals Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. C. Harvey ◽  
B. D. Hamlington ◽  
T. Frederikse ◽  
R. S. Nerem ◽  
C. G. Piecuch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Ocean Mass ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level

AbstractRegional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (45) ◽  
pp. 11861-11866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
York City ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

scholarly journals Sediment starvation destroys New York City marshes’ resistance to sea level rise

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (41) ◽  
pp. 10281-10286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorothy M. Peteet ◽  
Jonathan Nichols ◽  
Timothy Kenna ◽  
Clara Chang ◽  
James Browne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
York City ◽  
Organic Sediment ◽  
Jamaica Bay ◽  
Structural Weakness ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Matter Flux

New York City (NYC) is representative of many vulnerable coastal urban populations, infrastructures, and economies threatened by global sea level rise. The steady loss of marshes in NYC’s Jamaica Bay is typical of many urban estuaries worldwide. Essential to the restoration and preservation of these key wetlands is an understanding of their sedimentation. Here we present a reconstruction of the history of mineral and organic sediment fluxes in Jamaica Bay marshes over three centuries, using a combination of density measurements and a detailed accretion model. Accretion rate is calculated using historical land use and pollution markers, through a wide variety of sediment core analyses including geochemical, isotopic, and paleobotanical analyses. We find that, since 1800 CE, urban development dramatically reduced the input of marsh-stabilizing mineral sediment. However, as mineral flux decreased, organic matter flux increased. While this organic accumulation increase allowed vertical accumulation to outpace sea level, reduced mineral content causes structural weakness and edge failure. Marsh integrity now requires mineral sediment addition to both marshes and subsurface channels and borrow pits, a solution applicable to drowning estuaries worldwide. Integration of marsh mineral/organic accretion history with modeling provides parameters for marsh preservation at specific locales with sea level rise.

Impacts of sea level rise in the New York City metropolitan area

2001 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivien Gornitz ◽  
Stephen Couch ◽  
Ellen K Hartig
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
York City

scholarly journals Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

Ocean Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. H. Luu ◽  
P. Tkalich ◽  
T. W. Tay
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Malacca Strait ◽  
Singapore Strait

Abstract. Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5–25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian–Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian–western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986–2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr−1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr−1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates are estimated at 4.4±3.1 and 4.6±2.5 mm yr−1. The geocentric rates are about 25 % faster than those measured at tide gauges around the peninsula; however, the level of uncertainty associated with VLM data is relatively high. For the common period between 1993 and 2009, geocentric sea level rise values along the Malaysian coast are similar from tide gauge records and satellite altimetry (3.1 and 2.7 mm yr−1, respectively), and arguably correspond to the global trend.

The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates

2012 ◽  
Vol 280 ◽  
pp. 511-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Pieter H. A. J. M. van Gelder ◽  
John de Ronde ◽  
Mark van Koningsveld ◽  
Bert Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

scholarly journals A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Perrette ◽  
F. Landerer ◽  
R. Riva ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
M. Meinshausen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

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