scholarly journals Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (11) ◽  
pp. 2768-2772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Clara Deser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (21) ◽  
pp. 8521-8539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimée B. A. Slangen ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Didier P. Monselesan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Level Change ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.

The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates

2012 ◽  
Vol 280 ◽  
pp. 511-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Pieter H. A. J. M. van Gelder ◽  
John de Ronde ◽  
Mark van Koningsveld ◽  
Bert Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

QUANTIFYING REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Diandong Ren ◽  
◽  
Lance Leslie ◽  
Mervyn Lynch ◽  
Qinghua Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise

scholarly journals Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (30) ◽  
pp. 14887-14892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander A. Robel ◽  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

Sea-level rise may accelerate significantly if marine ice sheets become unstable. If such instability occurs, there would be considerable uncertainty in future sea-level rise projections due to imperfectly modeled ice sheet processes and unpredictable climate variability. In this study, we use mathematical and computational approaches to identify the ice sheet processes that drive uncertainty in sea-level projections. Using stochastic perturbation theory from statistical physics as a tool, we show mathematically that the marine ice sheet instability greatly amplifies and skews uncertainty in sea-level projections with worst-case scenarios of rapid sea-level rise being more likely than best-case scenarios of slower sea-level rise. We also perform large ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model of Thwaites Glacier, a marine-terminating glacier in West Antarctica that is thought to be unstable. These ensemble simulations indicate that the uncertainty solely related to internal climate variability can be a large fraction of the total ice loss expected from Thwaites Glacier. We conclude that internal climate variability alone can be responsible for significant uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise and that large ensembles are a necessary tool for quantifying the upper bounds of this uncertainty.

Investigating the Acceleration of Regional Sea Level Rise During the Satellite Altimeter Era

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
R. Steven Nerem ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Surendra Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimeter ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Regional Sea Level Rise
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