scholarly journals Storm Model Foresaw Tornado Precursor Hours Before Twister Hit

Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Cartier
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Storm Model

The experimental Warn-on-Forecast project calculates probabilities of severe weather within at-risk areas smaller than those targeted by current forecasting models.

Skin Self-Screening Camera for Veterans With Spinal Cord Injury

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Olney ◽  
Jennifer Leestma ◽  
Andrew Hansen ◽  
John Ferguson ◽  
Mary Murphy Kruse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spinal Cord ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Spinal Cord Injury ◽  
Adaptive Design ◽  
Mirror Image ◽  
Cord Injury ◽  
Skin Integrity ◽  
Pressure Injury ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Screening Device

Veterans with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at high risk for developing debilitating pressure injuries, particularly to their seated areas (e.g. coccyx, sacral and gluteal) [1]. To prevent development of a pressure injury the Veteran with SCI is encouraged to invoke multiple prevention strategies [2]. One recommended prevention strategy is to conduct twice daily skin self-screenings. Skin self-screening is usually conducted in the bed, prior to arising in the morning and prior to sleep in the evening. The current method to conduct skin self-screening utilizes a mirror at the end of a long handle. The Veteran with SCI examines at-risk areas for changes in their skin integrity such as discoloration, swelling, or changes in skin texture. This method can take up to 20 minutes to complete. In the event there is a change to skin integrity, the pressure injury prevention protocol advises the Veteran with SCI to off-load that particular area for at least 24 hours [3]. Further, he/she is advised to consult with their skin specialist if the area does not resolve to normal color or texture within that next 24 hour period. The consequences of ignoring an early stage pressure injury can be serious e.g. weeks to months of hospitalization attempting to heal the injury, tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars in healthcare costs, possible surgery to close the wound and possibly death [4]. Informal interviews with Veterans with SCI clarified and validated that conducting skin screening with the mirror could be very challenging due to barriers such as: not having a baseline image to compare to; the mirror image not being viewable to the user due to lack of user flexibility or body habitus; the mirror does not easily allow a complete view of all the at-risk areas; the user not being able to discern what he/she is actually viewing possibly due to mirror image distortion and limited visual acuity. The need for a better skin self-screening device was evidenced by the advanced pressure injuries Veterans presented to their healthcare providers. Finding a pressure injury in the early stages of development and intervening immediately, such as repositioning, can improve the trajectory of the injury [5]. Therefore the project goal was to offer a better tool for and improve the efficacy of skin self-screening for the Veterans with SCI. To overcome the identified barriers, our team of VA clinicians and engineers of the Minneapolis Adaptive Design & Engineering (MADE) program invented such a device at the Minneapolis VA. This paper presents the patient centered iterative process that was used to develop a skin self-screening device and the future directions for this technology.

Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting System

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan A. Sobash ◽  
Craig S. Schwartz ◽  
Glen S. Romine ◽  
Kathryn R. Fossell ◽  
Morris L. Weisman
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Smoothing Kernel ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Computational Resources

Abstract Probabilistic severe weather forecasts for days 1 and 2 were produced using 30-member convection-allowing ensemble forecasts initialized by an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system during a 32-day period coinciding with the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. The forecasts were generated by smoothing the locations where model output indicated extreme values of updraft helicity, a surrogate for rotating thunderstorms in model output. The day 1 surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs) produced skillful and reliable predictions of severe weather during this period, after an appropriate calibration of the smoothing kernel. The ensemble SSPFs exceeded the skill of SSPFs derived from two benchmark deterministic forecasts, with the largest differences occurring on the mesoscale, while all SSPFs produced similar forecasts on synoptic scales. While the deterministic SSPFs often overforecasted high probabilities, the ensemble improved the reliability of these probabilities, at the expense of producing fewer high-probability values. For the day 2 period, the SSPFs provided competitive guidance compared to the day 1 forecasts, although additional smoothing was needed to produce the same level of skill, reducing the forecast sharpness. Results were similar using 10 ensemble members, suggesting value exists when running a smaller ensemble if computational resources are limited. Finally, the SSPFs were compared to severe weather risk areas identified in Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks. The SSPF skill was comparable to the SPC outlook skill in identifying regions where severe weather would occur, although performance varied on a day-to-day basis.

scholarly journals Trust, Communication, and Community Networks: How the CORE Group Polio Project Community Volunteers Led the Fight against Polio in Ethiopia’s Most At-Risk Areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (4_Suppl) ◽  
pp. 59-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine V. Stamidis ◽  
Lydia Bologna ◽  
Filimona Bisrat ◽  
Tenager Tadesse ◽  
Fasil Tessema ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Community Networks ◽  
Core Group ◽  
The Core ◽  
Community Volunteers ◽  
Risk Areas

scholarly journals Ocupação em Área de Risco de Deslizamentos no Córrego do Jenipapo, Recife, Pernambuco (Occupation area at risk of landslides in Córrego do Jenipapo, Recife, Pernambuco)

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 524
Author(s):  
Josafá Henrique Gomes ◽  
Thiago Luiz do Vale Silva ◽  
Elidiane Ribeiro Guerra ◽  
Daniel Targa Dias Anastacio
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Area At Risk ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
The People ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The Hill ◽  
The City

A ocupação e a organização do espaço aconteceram de forma desigual, onde as camadas menos favorecidas da população terminou sendo excluída das áreas mais nobres da cidade, terminando por se fixar em áreas desvalorizadas imobiliariamente, ocupando entre outros lugares, os morros ou encostas, cuja instabilidade geológica é caracterizada pelo predomínio de escorregamentos ou deslizamentos de massa, o que gera grandes problemas para a população que nelas habitam. Na cidade do Recife, as áreas de risco, que se caracterizam como locais vulneráveis ao deslizamento de massa se encontram, principalmente, na zona norte. Assim, no intuito de conhecer melhor esses espaços e verificar o que tem sido feito para a mitigação do problema, foi escolhido para a realização do presente trabalho o bairro do Córrego do Jenipapo, o qual se localiza nessa região problemática e apresenta em toda sua extensão relevo com características que propicia a ocorrência desse fenômeno. Portanto, tem como objetivo caracterizar o Córrego do Jenipapo, localizá-lo entre os principais bairros que apresenta áreas de risco na Cidade do Recife e apontar as principais ações adotadas pela prefeitura a fim de evitar acidentes.Palavras-chave: ocupação de morro; área de risco; deslizamento de encostas; planejamento urbano. Occupation Area at Risk of Landslides in Córrego do Jenipapo, Recife, Pernambuco ABSTRACTThe occupation of space and organization occurred unevenly, where the disadvantaged sections of the population ended up being excluded from the finest areas of the city, eventually settling in areas undervalued, ranking among other places, the hills and slopes, whose geological instability is characterized by the predominance of landslides or mudslides mass, which creates major problems for the people who inhabit them. In the city of Recife, the risk areas, which are characterized as places vulnerable to sliding mass are mainly in the north. Thus, in order to better understand these areas and see what has been done to mitigate the problem, was chosen for the present work the neighborhood of Jenipapo Stream, which is located in this region and presents problems in all its extension relief with features that facilitates the occurrence of this phenomenon. Therefore, aims to characterize the Stream Jenipapo, locate it among the top districts that presents risk areas in the city of Recife and point out the main actions taken by the city to avoid accidents.Keywords: occupation of the hill; risk area, landslides, urban planning.

scholarly journals A stochastic implementation of the APCI model for mortality projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Richards ◽  
I. D. Currie ◽  
T. Kleinow ◽  
G. P. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Model Fits

AbstractThe Age-Period-Cohort-Improvement (APCI) model is a new addition to the canon of mortality forecasting models. It was introduced by Continuous Mortality Investigation as a means of parameterising a deterministic targeting model for forecasting, but this paper shows how it can be implemented as a fully stochastic model. We demonstrate a number of interesting features about the APCI model, including which parameters to smooth and how much better the model fits to the data compared to some other, related models. However, this better fit also sometimes results in higher value-at-risk (VaR)-style capital requirements for insurers, and we explore why this is by looking at the density of the VaR simulations.

Abstract 216: Describing Geographically High-Risk Areas for PAD in the Netherlands: Socio-Economic Profile, Treatment Rates and Cardiovascular Prognosis

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tijmen Koëter ◽  
Patrick W Vriens ◽  
Moniek van Zitteren ◽  
Jan M Heyligers ◽  
Desiree H Burger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Interventional Procedures ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Cardiovascular Outcomes ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Mapping Technology ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Geospatial Mapping

Introduction: Geospatial mapping technology has been previously successfully used in cardiac disease to identify geographical areas where at-risk patients live in terms of their socio-economic background and cardiovascular outcomes. This methodology has not been applied for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). By doing so, we could identify vulnerable subpopulations that may benefit from more aggressive secondary prevention and follow-up. Methods: We are introducing the Geographically High-Risk Areas for PAD (GAP) study in the Netherlands as a pilot project to leverage the use of geospatial mapping technology in a national outpatient database focusing on patients with PAD. The pilot project reports on 816 patients with newly identified PAD (>Rutherford 1) identified at the regional vascular clinics between March 2006 and November 2011 in the city of Tilburg, The Netherlands. Using the ESRI ArcGIS software, we will address the following specific aims: 1) to geo-map patients’ residential location based on their zip code;2) to describe patients’ socioeconomic characteristics based on data obtained from the Central Bureau for Statistics in the Netherlands and patient interviews;3) to geo-map their interventional procedures (endovascular and/or surgical); and 4) to geo-map patients’ cardiovascular outcomes. As an exploratory aim, we will evaluate the association between having a more vulnerable socioeconomic profile, and undergoing more interventional procedures, and having an adverse prognosis, respectively. Results: As an example and to test feasibility, we created a density map with the occurrence of newly identified PAD in the Tilburg area (Figure a), as well as several overviews of maps containing socioeconomic variables (e.g. Figure b - number of patients with PAD on welfare) and cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. Figure c - BMI categories distribution among patients with PAD). Conclusion: Using the geospatial mapping methodology in the GAP pilot project in Tilburg, The Netherlands, we will be able to leverage the use of this technology in larger national databases to better identify patients with PAD who are at risk of increased health care utilization and adverse outcomes. This information will be instrumental to help improve prevention and care for PAD in collaboration with local care providers.

scholarly journals The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. e0009385
Author(s):  
Sean M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Japanese Encephalitis ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
At Risk Populations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Combining Estimates

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.

scholarly journals Mapping status and conservation of global at-risk marine biodiversity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Marine Reserve ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Elevated Risk ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Risk Areas

To conserve marine biodiversity, we must first understand the spatial distribution and status of at-risk biodiversity. We combined range maps and conservation status for 5,291 marine species to map the global distribution of extinction risk of marine biodiversity. We find that for 83% of the ocean, >25% of assessed species are considered threatened, and 15% of the ocean shows >50% of assessed species threatened when weighting for range-limited species. By comparing mean extinction risk of marine biodiversity to no-take marine reserve placement, we identify regions where reserves preferentially afford proactive protection (i.e., preserving low-risk areas) or reactive protection (i.e., mitigating high-risk areas), indicating opportunities and needs for effective future protection at national and regional scales. In addition, elevated risk to high seas biodiversity highlights the need for credible protection and minimization of threatening activities in international waters.

scholarly journals Millions More Americans Face Flood Risks Than Previously Thought

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Wing ◽  
Paul Bates ◽  
Christopher Sampson ◽  
Andrew Smith ◽  
Joseph Fargione ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The U.S

A different modeling approach fills large gaps in the U.S. government's flood risk estimates, revealing previously overlooked at-risk areas often surrounding small flood-prone streams.

scholarly journals The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Japanese Encephalitis ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
At Risk Populations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Combining Estimates

AbstractJapanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1.15 billion (range: 982.1-1543.1 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents 28.0% (range: 24.0-37.7%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 45,017 (95% CI: 13,579-146,375) JE cases and 16,319 (95% CI: 1,804-60,041) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 61,879 (95% CI: 18,377-200,406) cases and 22,448 (95% CI: 2,470-83,588) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 214,493 (95% CI: 75,905-729,009) cases and 78,544 (95% CI: 8,243-325,755) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 142,471 (95% CI: 56,208-484,294) cases and 52,338 (95% CI: 6,421-185,285) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.1%) and Malaysia (80.5%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.Author SummaryJapanese encephalitis is a vector-transmitted, zoonotic disease that is endemic throughout a large portion of Asia. Vaccination has significantly reduced the JE burden in several formerly high-burden countries, but vaccination coverage remains limited in several other countries with high JE burdens. A better understanding of both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of the burden in endemic countries is critical for future disease prevention efforts. To estimate the number of people living in areas within Asia suitable for JEV transmission we conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE. We estimate that over one billion people live in areas suitable for local JEV transmission. We then combined these population-at-risk estimates with estimates of the force of infection (FOI) to model the national-level burden of JE (annual cases and deaths) over the past decade. Increases in vaccination coverage have reduced JE incidence from over 60,000 cases in 2010 to 45,000 cases in 2019. We estimate that vaccination has prevented over 214,000 cases and 78,000 deaths in the past decade. Our results also call attention to the countries, and high-risk areas within countries, where increases in vaccination coverage are most needed.

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