scholarly journals A Cooler Climate Would Trigger More Tropical Cyclones

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
New Model ◽  
Surface Temperatures

New model reveals tropical cyclones could form at lower sea surface temperatures than previously thought.

scholarly journals A Two-Way Relationship Between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan Bane
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Researchers have uncovered a new connection between sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific that could improve accuracies of future cyclone forecasts.

scholarly journals A Hydrodynamical Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Modeling System for Multiple Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 869
Author(s):  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
Dmitry Sheinin ◽  
Biju Thomas ◽  
Lew Gramer ◽  
Zhan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Improvement Program ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new multi-storm atmosphere/ocean coupling scheme that was implemented and tested in the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) model. HWRF-B, an experimental model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, is configured with multiple storm-following nested domains to produce high-resolution predictions for several tropical cyclones (TCs) within the same forecast integration. The new coupling scheme parallelizes atmosphere/ocean interactions for each nested domain in HWRF-B, and it may be applied to any atmosphere/ocean coupled system. TC forecasts from this new hydrodynamical modeling system were produced in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2017–2019. The performance of HWRF-B was evaluated, including forecasts of TC track, intensity, structure (e.g., surface wind radii), and intensity change, and simulated sea-surface temperatures were compared with satellite observations. Median forecast skill scores showed significant improvement over the operational HWRF at most forecast lead times for track, intensity, and structure. Sea-surface temperatures cooled by 1–8 °C for the five HWRF-B case studies, demonstrating the utility of the model to study the impact of the ocean on TC intensity forecasting. These results show the value of a multi-storm modeling system and provide confidence that the multi-storm coupling scheme was implemented correctly. Future TC models within NOAA, especially the Unified Forecast System’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, would benefit from the multi-storm coupling scheme whose utility and performance are demonstrated in HWRF-B here.

Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger ◽  
Robert E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Surface Temperatures

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Formation in Environments with Cool SST and High Wind Shear over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean*

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1433-1448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel G. Mauk ◽  
Jay S. Hobgood
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Northeastern Atlantic

Abstract Tropical cyclones with nontropical characteristics are being identified more frequently over the North Atlantic Ocean in recent years. These systems present forecasting challenges because of their hybrid structure. The authors analyze environmental conditions preceding the formation of 20 late-season northeastern Atlantic tropical cyclones identified during the 1975–2005 seasons. A recent tropical storm, Grace (2009), is discussed as a case study. Seventeen of the 20 systems originated from nontropical systems (surface low, frontal weak, and frontal strong). Three tropical cyclones experienced nontropical influences during development despite originating from tropical waves. Ambient sea surface temperatures, relative vorticity, vertical temperature profiles, and wind shear are investigated to identify conditions conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical cyclones developing from nontropical precursors form in environments distinct from the classical tropical cyclone environment. For 17 systems, sea surface temperatures are cooler than 26°C. Stability analysis suggests that convection is shallow. Wind shear decreases for the 850–300-hPa layer in comparison to the 850–200-hPa layer. Most systems still experience shear in excess of 8 m s−1 for the 850–300-hPa layer. It is suggested that late-season tropical cyclones in this region are shallower in vertical extent than typical tropical cyclones, which reduces the impact of strong wind shear in the 850–200-hPa layer.

scholarly journals Advances in Egyptian Mediterranean Coast Climate Change Monitoring

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1870
Author(s):  
Matteo Gentilucci ◽  
Abdelraouf A. Moustafa ◽  
Fagr Kh. Abdel-Gawad ◽  
Samira R. Mansour ◽  
Maria Rosaria Coppola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Mitochondrial Gene ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Homogeneity Test ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Lessepsian Species

This paper characterizes non-indigenous fish species (NIS) and analyses both atmospheric and sea surface temperatures for the Mediterranean coast of Egypt from 1991 to 2020, in relation to previous reports in the same areas. Taxonomical characterization depicts 47 NIS from the Suez Canal (Lessepsian/alien) and 5 from the Atlantic provenance. GenBank accession number of the NIS mitochondrial gene, cytochrome oxidase 1, reproductive and commercial biodata, and a schematic Inkscape drawing for the most harmful Lessepsian species were reported. For sea surface temperatures (SST), an increase of 1.2 °C to 1.6 °C was observed using GIS software. The lack of linear correlation between annual air temperature and annual SST at the same detection points (Pearson r) could suggest a difference in submarine currents, whereas the Pettitt homogeneity test highlights a temperature breakpoint in 2005–2006 that may have favoured the settlement of non-indigenous fauna in the coastal sites of Damiette, El Arish, El Hammam, Alexandria, El Alamain, and Mersa Matruh, while there seems to be a breakpoint present in 2001 for El Sallum. This assessment of climate trends is in good agreement with the previous sightings of non-native fish species. New insights into the assessment of Egyptian coastal climate change are discussed.

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