scholarly journals Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling

2008 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Greer B. Kingston ◽  
Holger R. Maier ◽  
Martin F. Lambert
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Selection ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Inflow Forecast of Iranamadu Reservoir, Sri Lanka, under Projected Climate Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Chamaka Karunanayake ◽  
Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽  
Upaka Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Training Algorithm ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Artificial Neural

Prediction of water resources for future years takes much attention from the water resources planners and relevant authorities. However, traditional computational models like hydrologic models need many data about the catchment itself. Sometimes these important data on catchments are not available due to many reasons. Therefore, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are useful soft computing tools in predicting real-world scenarios, such as forecasting future water availability from a catchment, in the absence of intensive data, which are required for modeling practices in the context of hydrology. These ANNs are capable of building relationships to nonlinear real-world problems using available data and then to use that built relationship to forecast future needs. Even though Sri Lanka has an extensive usage of water resources for many activities, including drinking water supply, irrigation, hydropower development, navigation, and many other recreational purposes, forecasting studies for water resources are not being carried out. Therefore, there is a significant gap in forecasting water availability and water needs in the context of Sri Lanka. Thus, this paper presents an artificial neural network model to forecast the inflows of one of the most important reservoirs in northern Sri Lanka using the upstream catchment’s rainfall. Future rainfall data are extracted using regional climate models for the years 2021–2050 and the inflows of the reservoir are forecasted using the validated neural network model. Several training algorithms including Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), BFGS quasi-Newton (BFG), scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) have been used to find the best fitting training algorithm to the prediction process of the inflows against the measured inflows. Results revealed that the LM training algorithm outperforms the other tests algorithm in developing the prediction model. In addition, the forecasted results using the projected climate scenarios clearly showcase the benefit of using the forecasting model in solving future water resource management to avoid or to minimize future water scarcity. Therefore, the validated model can effectively be used for proper planning of the proposed drinking water supply scheme to the nearby urban city, Jaffna in northern Sri Lanka.

A new model selection strategy in artificial neural networks

2008 ◽  
Vol 195 (2) ◽  
pp. 591-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erol Eğrioğlu ◽  
Çağdaş Hakan Aladağ ◽  
Süleyman Günay
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
New Model ◽  
Artificial Neural
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