Comment on “A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century” by David M. Lawrence and Andrew G. Slater

Warming of permafrost in steep rock walls decreases their mechanical stability and could triggers rockfalls and rockslides. However, the direct link between climate change and permafrost degradation is seldom quantified with precise monitoring techniques and long-term time series. Where boreholes are not possible, laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is presumably the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique providing a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen bedrock. Recently, 4D inversions allow also quantification of frozen bedrock extension and of its changes with time (Scandroglio et al., in review).In this study we (i) evaluate the influence of the inversion parameters on the volumes and (ii) connect the volumetric changes with measured mechanical consequences.The ERT time-serie was recorded between 2006 and 2019 in steep bedrock at the permafrost affected Steint&#228;lli Ridge (3100 m asl). Accurately positioned 205 drilled-in steel electrodes in 5 parallel lines across the rock ridge have been repeatedly measured with similar hardware and are compared to laboratory temperature-resistivity (T&#8211;&#961;) calibration of water-saturated samples from the field. Inversions were conducted using the open-source software BERT for the first time with the aim of estimating permafrost volumetric changes over a decade.(i) Here we present a sensitivity analysis of the outcomes by testing various plausible inversion set-ups. Results are computed with different input data filters, data error model, regularization parameter (&#955;), model roughness reweighting and time-lapse constraints. The model with the largest permafrost degradation was obtained without any time-lapse constraints, whereas constraining each model with the prior measurement results in the smallest degradation. Important changes are also connected to the data error estimation, while other setting seems to have less influence on the frozen volume. All inversions confirmed a drastic permafrost degradation in the last 13 years with an average reduction of 3.900&#177;600&#160;m3 (60&#177;10% of the starting volume), well in agreement with the measured air temperatures increase.(ii) Average bedrock thawing rate of ~300 m3/a is expected to significantly influence the stability of the ridge. Resistivity changes are especially evident on the south-west exposed side and in the core of the ridge and are here connected to deformations measured with tape extensometer, in order to precisely estimate the mechanical consequences of bedrock warming.In summary, the strong degradation of permafrost in the last decade it&#8217;s here confirmed since inversion settings only have minor influence on volume quantification. Internal thermal dynamics need correlation with measured external deformation for a correct interpretation of stability consequences. These results are a fundamental benchmark for evaluating mountain permafrost degradation in relation to climate change and demonstrate the key role of temperature-calibrated 4D ERT.&#160;Reference:Scandroglio, R. et al. (in review) &#8216;4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated ERT approach&#8217;, Near Surface Geophysics.

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Decennial multi-approach monitoring of thermo-hydro-mechanical processes, Kammstollen outdoor laboratory, Zugspitze (Germany)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13815 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Riccardo Scandroglio ◽

Till Rehm ◽

Jonas K. Limbrock ◽

Andreas Kemna ◽

Markus Heinze ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Electrical Resistivity ◽

Electrical Resistivity Tomography ◽

Environmental Research ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Earth Surface ◽

Data Set ◽

Resistivity Tomography ◽

Near Surface ◽

Permafrost Rock ◽

Austrian Alps

The warming of alpine bedrock permafrost in the last three decades and consequent reduction of frozen areas has been well documented. Its consequences like slope stability reduction put humans and infrastructures at high risk. 2020 in particular was the warmest year on record at 3000m a.s.l. embedded in the warmest decade.Recently, the development of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) as standard technique for quantitative permafrost investigation allows extended monitoring of this hazard even allowing including quantitative 4D monitoring strategies (Scandroglio et al., in review). Nevertheless thermo-hydro-mechanical dynamics of steep bedrock slopes cannot be totally explained by a single measurement technique and therefore multi-approach setups are necessary in the field to record external forcing and improve the deciphering of internal responses.The Zugspitze Kammstollen is a 850m long tunnel located between 2660 and 2780m a.s.l., a few decameters under the mountain ridge. First ERT monitoring was conducted in 2007 (Krautblatter et al., 2010)&#160;and has been followed by more than one decade of intensive field work. This has led to the collection of a unique multi-approach data set of still unpublished data. Continuous logging of environmental parameters such as rock/air temperatures and water infiltration through joints as well as a dedicated thermal model (Schr&#246;der and Krautblatter, in review)&#160;provide important additional knowledge on bedrock internal dynamics. Summer ERT and seismic refraction tomography surveys with manual and automated joints&#8217; displacement measurements on the ridge offer information on external controls, complemented by three weather stations and a 44m long borehole within 1km from the tunnel.Year-round access to the area enables uninterrupted monitoring and maintenance of instruments for reliable data collection. &#8220;Precisely controlled natural conditions&#8221;, restricted access for researchers only and logistical support by Environmental Research Station Schneefernerhaus, make this tunnel particularly attractive for developing benchmark experiments. Some examples are the design of induced polarization monitoring, the analysis of tunnel spring water for isotopes investigation, and the multi-annual mass monitoring by means of relative gravimetry.Here, we present the recently modernized layout of the outdoor laboratory with the latest monitoring results, opening a discussion on further possible approaches of this extensive multi-approach data set, aiming at understanding not only permafrost thermal evolution but also the connected thermo-hydro-mechanical processes.&#160;&#160;Krautblatter, M. et al.&#160;(2010) &#8216;Temperature-calibrated imaging of seasonal changes in permafrost rock walls by quantitative electrical resistivity tomography (Zugspitze, German/Austrian Alps)&#8217;, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 115(2), pp. 1&#8211;15. doi: 10.1029/2008JF001209.Scandroglio, R. et al.&#160;(in review) &#8216;4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated ERT approach (in review)&#8217;, Near Surface Geophysics.Schr&#246;der, T. and Krautblatter, M. (in review) &#8216;A high-resolution multi-phase thermo-geophysical model to verify long-term electrical resistivity tomography monitoring in alpine permafrost rock walls (Zugspitze, German/Austrian Alps) (submitted)&#8217;, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms.

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Projected changes in pyroconvective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15526 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Martín Senande-Rivera ◽

Gonzalo Miguez-Macho

Keyword(s):

Iberian Peninsula ◽

21St Century ◽

Surface Wind ◽

Atmospheric Stability ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Plume ◽

Near Surface ◽

Wildfire Spread ◽

Projected Changes

Extreme wildfire events associated with strong pyroconvection have gained the attention of the scientific community and the society in recent years. Strong convection in the fire plume can influence fire behaviour, as downdrafts can cause abrupt variations in surface wind direction and speed that can result in bursts of unexpected fire propagation. Climate change is expected to increase the length of the fire season and the extreme wildfire potential, so the risk of pyroconvection occurence might be also altered. Here, we analyse atmospheric stability and near-surface fire weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the 21st century to assess the projected changes in pyroconvective risk during favourable weather conditions for wildfire spread. &#160;

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Dynamical Downscaling Data for Studying Climatic Impacts on Hydrology, Permafrost, and Ecosystems in Arctic Alaska

10.5194/essd-2016-31 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Cai ◽

Vladimir A. Alexeev ◽

Christopher D. Arp ◽

Benjamin M. Jones ◽

Anna Liljedahl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Observational Data ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Dew Point ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

The Arctic ◽

Linear Scaling ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Near Surface ◽

Temperature Bias ◽

Northern Alaska

Abstract. Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.863625.

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New ground ice maps for Canada using a paleogeographic modelling approach

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-13-753-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 753-773 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

H. Brendan O'Neill ◽

Stephen A. Wolfe ◽

Caroline Duchesne

Keyword(s):

Glacial Lake ◽

Significant Advance ◽

Small Scale ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Field Observations ◽

Tree Line ◽

Ground Ice ◽

Near Surface ◽

Western Arctic ◽

Modelling Approach

Abstract. Ground ice melt caused by climate-induced permafrost degradation may trigger significant ecological change, damage infrastructure, and alter biogeochemical cycles. The fundamental ground ice mapping for Canada is now >20 years old and does not include significant new insights gained from recent field- and remote-sensing-based studies. New modelling incorporating paleogeography is presented in this paper to depict the distribution of three ground ice types (relict ice, segregated ice, and wedge ice) in northern Canada. The modelling uses an expert-system approach in a geographic information system (GIS), founded in conceptual principles gained from empirically based research, to predict ground ice abundance in near-surface permafrost. Datasets of surficial geology, deglaciation, paleovegetation, glacial lake and marine limits, and modern permafrost distribution allow representations in the models of paleoclimatic shifts, tree line migration, marine and glacial lake inundation, and terrestrial emergence, and their effect on ground ice abundance. The model outputs are generally consistent with field observations, indicating abundant relict ice in the western Arctic, where it has remained preserved since deglaciation in thick glacigenic sediments in continuous permafrost. Segregated ice is widely distributed in fine-grained deposits, occurring in the highest abundance in glacial lake and marine sediments. The modelled abundance of wedge ice largely reflects the exposure time of terrain to low air temperatures in tundra environments following deglaciation or marine/glacial lake inundation and is thus highest in the western Arctic. Holocene environmental changes result in reduced ice abundance where the tree line advanced during warmer periods. Published observations of thaw slumps and massive ice exposures, segregated ice and associated landforms, and ice wedges allow a favourable preliminary assessment of the models, and the results are generally comparable with the previous ground ice mapping for Canada. However, the model outputs are more spatially explicit and better reflect observed ground ice conditions in many regions. Synthetic modelling products that incorporated the previous ground ice information may therefore include inaccuracies. The presented modelling approach is a significant advance in permafrost mapping, but additional field observations and volumetric ice estimates from more areas in Canada are required to improve calibration and validation of small-scale ground ice modelling. The ground ice maps from this paper are available in the supplement in GeoTIFF format.

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A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2011jd016545 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 117 (D5) ◽

pp. n/a-n/a ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

Donglin Guo ◽

Huijun Wang ◽

Duo Li

Keyword(s):

Tibetan Plateau ◽

21St Century ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Permafrost Degradation

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Degrading permafrost threatens Arctic nature and built environment

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8408 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jan Hjort ◽

Olli Karjalainen ◽

Juha Aalto ◽

Sebastian Westermann ◽

Vladimir Romanovsky ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

High Resolution ◽

Human Activities ◽

Environmental Data ◽

The Arctic ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Engineering Structures ◽

Near Surface ◽

Population At Risk

Arctic earth surface systems are undergoing unprecedented changes, with permafrost thaw as one of the most striking examples. Permafrost is critical because it controls ecosystem processes, human activities, and landscape dynamics in the north. Degradation (i.e. warming and thawing) of permafrost is related to several hazards, which may pose a serious risk to humans and the environment. Thaw of ice-rich permafrost increases ground instability, landslides, and infrastructure damages. Degrading permafrost may lead to the release of significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and threatens also biodiversity, geodiversity and ecosystem services. Thawing permafrost may even jeopardize human health. Consequently, a deeper understanding of the hazards and risks related to the degradation of permafrost is fundamental for science and society.To address climate change effects on infrastructure and human activities, we (i) mapped circumpolar permafrost hazard areas and (ii) quantified critical engineering structures and population at risk by mid-century. We used observations of ground thermal regime, geospatial environmental data, and statistically-based ensemble methods to model the current and future near-surface permafrost extent at ca. 1 km resolution. Using the forecasts of ground temperatures, a consensus of three geohazard indices, and geospatial data we quantified the amount and proportion of infrastructure elements and population at risk owing to climate change. We show that ca. 70% of current infrastructure and population in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost by 2050. One-third of fundamental infrastructure is located in high hazard regions where the ground is susceptible to thaw-related ground instability. Owing to the observed data-related and methodological limitations we call for improvements in the circumpolar hazard mappings and infrastructure risk assessments.To successfully manage climate change impacts and support sustainable development in the Arctic, it is critical to (i) produce high-resolution geospatial datasets of ground conditions (e.g., content of organic material and ground ice), (ii) develop further high-resolution permafrost modelling, (iii) comprehensively map permafrost degradation-related hazards, and (iv) quantify the amount and economic value of infrastructure and natural resources at risk across the circumpolar permafrost area.

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