scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling Data for Studying Climatic Impacts on Hydrology, Permafrost, and Ecosystems in Arctic Alaska

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Cai ◽  
Vladimir A. Alexeev ◽  
Christopher D. Arp ◽  
Benjamin M. Jones ◽  
Anna Liljedahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Linear Scaling ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Northern Alaska

Abstract. Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.863625.

scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling Data for Studying Climatic Impacts on Hydrology, Permafrost, and Ecosystems in Arctic Alaska

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Cai ◽  
Vladimir A. Alexeev ◽  
Christopher D. Arp ◽  
Benjamin M. Jones ◽  
Anna Liljedahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Linear Scaling ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Northern Alaska

Abstract. Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Degrading permafrost threatens Arctic nature and built environment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Hjort ◽  
Olli Karjalainen ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Sebastian Westermann ◽  
Vladimir Romanovsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Engineering Structures ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Population At Risk

<p>Arctic earth surface systems are undergoing unprecedented changes, with permafrost thaw as one of the most striking examples. Permafrost is critical because it controls ecosystem processes, human activities, and landscape dynamics in the north. Degradation (i.e. warming and thawing) of permafrost is related to several hazards, which may pose a serious risk to humans and the environment. Thaw of ice-rich permafrost increases ground instability, landslides, and infrastructure damages. Degrading permafrost may lead to the release of significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and threatens also biodiversity, geodiversity and ecosystem services. Thawing permafrost may even jeopardize human health. Consequently, a deeper understanding of the hazards and risks related to the degradation of permafrost is fundamental for science and society.</p><p>To address climate change effects on infrastructure and human activities, we (i) mapped circumpolar permafrost hazard areas and (ii) quantified critical engineering structures and population at risk by mid-century. We used observations of ground thermal regime, geospatial environmental data, and statistically-based ensemble methods to model the current and future near-surface permafrost extent at ca. 1 km resolution. Using the forecasts of ground temperatures, a consensus of three geohazard indices, and geospatial data we quantified the amount and proportion of infrastructure elements and population at risk owing to climate change. We show that ca. 70% of current infrastructure and population in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost by 2050. One-third of fundamental infrastructure is located in high hazard regions where the ground is susceptible to thaw-related ground instability. Owing to the observed data-related and methodological limitations we call for improvements in the circumpolar hazard mappings and infrastructure risk assessments.</p><p>To successfully manage climate change impacts and support sustainable development in the Arctic, it is critical to (i) produce high-resolution geospatial datasets of ground conditions (e.g., content of organic material and ground ice), (ii) develop further high-resolution permafrost modelling, (iii) comprehensively map permafrost degradation-related hazards, and (iv) quantify the amount and economic value of infrastructure and natural resources at risk across the circumpolar permafrost area.</p>

scholarly journals The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System Facilitates Shrub Establishment in Northern Alaska

ARCTIC ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosemary A. Dwight ◽  
David M. Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Arctic Tundra ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Tundra Vegetation ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
Northern Alaska ◽  
Shrub Establishment

The Arctic tundra is undergoing many environmental changes in addition to increasing temperatures: these changes include permafrost degradation and increased shrubification. Disturbances related to infrastructure can also lead to similar environmental changes. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) is an example of infrastructure that has made a major imprint on the Alaskan landscape. This paper assesses changes in shrub presence along the northernmost 255 km of the TAPS. We used historical satellite imagery from before construction of the TAPS in 1974 and contemporary satellite imagery from 2010 to 2016 to examine changes in shrub presence over time. We found a 51.8% increase in shrub presence adjacent to the pipeline compared to 2.6% in control areas. Additionally, shrub presence has increased significantly more in areas where the pipeline is buried, indicating that the disturbances linked to pipeline burial have likely created favorable conditions for shrub colonization. These results are important for predicting potential responses of tundra vegetation to disturbance, which will be crucial to forecasting the future of Arctic tundra vegetation.

scholarly journals Recent degradation of Interior Alaska permafrost mapped with ground surveys, geophysics, deep drilling, and repeat airborne LiDAR

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Douglas ◽  
Christopher A. Hiemstra ◽  
John E. Anderson ◽  
Robyn A. Barbato ◽  
Kevin L. Bjella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Layer ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Tussock Tundra

Abstract. Permafrost underlies one quarter of the northern hemisphere but is at increasing risk of thaw from climate warming. Recent studies across the Arctic have identified areas of rapid permafrost degradation from both top-down and lateral thaw. Of particular concern is thawing of ice rich high carbon content syngenetic yedoma permafrost like much of the permafrost in the region around Fairbanks, Alaska. With a mean annual temperature of −2 °C subtle differences in ecotype and permafrost ice and soil content control the near-surface permafrost thermal regime. Long-term measurements of the seasonally thawed active layer across central Alaska have identified an increase in permafrost thaw degradation that is expected to continue, and even accelerate, in coming decades. A major knowledge gap is relating belowground measurements of seasonal thaw, permafrost characteristics, and talik development with aboveground ecotype properties and thermokarst expansion that can readily quantify vegetation cover and track surface elevation changes over time. This study was conducted from 2013–2020 along four 400 to 500 m long transects near Fairbanks, Alaska. Repeat end of season active layer depths, near-surface permafrost temperature measurements, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), deep (> 5 m) boreholes, and repeat airborne LiDAR were used to measure top down thaw and map thermokarst development at the sites. Our study confirms previous work using ERT to map surface thawed zones, however, our deep boreholes confirm the boundaries between frozen and thawed zones that are needed to model top down, lateral, and bottom-up thaw. At disturbed sites seasonal thaw increased up to 25 % between mid-August and early October and suggests active layer depths must be made as late in the fall season as possible because the projected increase in the summer season of just a few weeks could lead to significant additional thaw. At our sites, tussock tundra and spruce forest are associated with the lowest mean annual near-surface permafrost temperatures while mixed forest ecotypes are the warmest and exhibit the highest degree of recent temperature warming and thaw degradation. Thermokarst features and perennially thawed zones (taliks) have been identified at all sites. Our measurements, when combined with longer-term records from yedoma across the 500,000 km2 area of central Alaska show widespread initiation of near-surface permafrost thaw since roughly 2010. Using this partial area of the yedoma domain and projecting our thaw depth increases, by ecotype, across this domain we calculate 0.44 Gt of permafrost soil C have been thawed over the 7 year period, an amount equal to the yearly CO2 emissions of Australia. Since the yedoma permafrost and the variety of ecotypes at our sites represent much of the Arctic and subarctic land cover this study shows remote sensing measurements, top-down and bottom-up thermal modelling, and ground based surveys can be used predictively to identify areas of highest risk for permafrost thaw from projected future climate warming.

scholarly journals Recent degradation of interior Alaska permafrost mapped with ground surveys, geophysics, deep drilling, and repeat airborne lidar

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 3555-3575
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Douglas ◽  
Christopher A. Hiemstra ◽  
John E. Anderson ◽  
Robyn A. Barbato ◽  
Kevin L. Bjella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Layer ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Tussock Tundra

Abstract. Permafrost underlies one-quarter of the Northern Hemisphere but is at increasing risk of thaw from climate warming. Recent studies across the Arctic have identified areas of rapid permafrost degradation from both top-down and lateral thaw. Of particular concern is thawing syngenetic “yedoma” permafrost which is ice-rich and has a high carbon content. This type of permafrost is common in the region around Fairbanks, Alaska, and across central Alaska expanding westward to the Seward Peninsula. A major knowledge gap is relating belowground measurements of seasonal thaw, permafrost characteristics, and residual thaw layer development with aboveground ecotype properties and thermokarst expansion that can readily quantify vegetation cover and track surface elevation changes over time. This study was conducted from 2013 to 2020 along four 400 to 500 m long transects near Fairbanks, Alaska. Repeat active layer depths, near-surface permafrost temperature measurements, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), deep (> 5 m) boreholes, and repeat airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) were used to measure top-down permafrost thaw and map thermokarst development at the sites. Our study confirms previous work using ERT to map surface thawed zones; however, our deep boreholes confirm the boundaries between frozen and thawed zones that are needed to model top-down, lateral, and bottom-up thaw. At disturbed sites seasonal thaw increased up to 25 % between mid-August and early October and suggests measurements to evaluate active layer depth must be made as late in the fall season as possible because the projected increase in the summer season of just a few weeks could lead to significant additional thaw. At our sites, tussock tundra and spruce forest are associated with the lowest mean annual near-surface permafrost temperatures while mixed-forest ecotypes are the warmest and exhibit the highest degree of recent temperature warming and thaw degradation. Thermokarst features, residual thaw layers, and taliks have been identified at all sites. Our measurements, when combined with longer-term records from yedoma across the 500 000 km2 area of central Alaska, show widespread near-surface permafrost thaw since 2010. Projecting our thaw depth increases, by ecotype, across the yedoma domain, we calculate a first-order estimate that 0.44 Pg of organic carbon in permafrost soil has thawed over the past 7 years, which, for perspective, is an amount of carbon nearly equal to the yearly CO2 emissions of Australia. Since the yedoma permafrost and the variety of ecotypes at our sites represent much of the Arctic and subarctic land cover, this study shows remote sensing measurements, top-down and bottom-up thermal modeling, and ground-based surveys can be used predictively to identify areas of the highest risk for permafrost thaw from projected future climate warming.

Abrupt changes across the Arctic permafrost region endanger northern development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Extensive Degradation

<p>Extensive degradation of near-surface permafrost is projected during the 21st century, which will have detrimental effects on northern communities, ecosystems and engineering systems. This degradation will expectedly have consequences for many processes, which most previous modelling studies suggested would occur gradually. Here, we project that soil moisture will decrease abruptly (within a few months) in response to permafrost degradation over large areas of the present-day permafrost region, based on analysis of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. This regime shift is reflected in abrupt increases in summer near-surface temperature and convective precipitation, and decreases in relative humidity and surface runoff. Of particular relevance to northern systems are changes to the bearing capacity of the soil due to increased drainage, increases in the potential for intense rainfall events and increases in lightning frequency, which combined with increases in forest fuel combustibility are projected to abruptly and substantially increase the severity of wildfires, which constitute one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and infrastructure. The fact that these changes are projected to occur abruptly further increases the challenges associated with climate change adaptation and potential retrofitting measures.</p>

MONITORING OF THE THERMOABRASIONAL AND ACCUMULATIVE COASTS NEAR THE UNDERWATER GAS PIPELINE ROUTE ACROSS THE BAYDARATSKAYA BAY, KARA SEA

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Belova ◽  
Nataliya Belova ◽  
Alisa Baranskaya ◽  
Alisa Baranskaya ◽  
Osip Kokin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Yamal Peninsula ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Nearshore Zone ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Energy Dissipater ◽  
Pipeline Route

The coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay are composed by loose frozen sediments. At Yamal Peninsula accumulative coasts are predominant at the site where pipeline crosses the coast, while thermoabrasional coast are prevail at the Ural coast crossing site. Coastal dynamics monitoring on both sites is conducted using field and remote methods starting from the end of 1980s. As a result of construction in the coastal zone the relief morphology was disturbed, both lithodynamics and thermal regime of the permafrost within the areas of several km around the sites where gas pipeline crosses coastline was changed. At Yamal coast massive removal of deposits from the beach and tideflat took place. The morphology of barrier beach, which previously was a natural wave energy dissipater, was disturbed. This promoted inland penetration of storm surges and permafrost degradation under the barrier beach. At Ural coast the topsoil was disrupted by construction trucks, which affected thermal regime of the upper part of permafrost and lead to active layer deepening. Thermoerosion and thermoabrasion processes have activated on coasts, especially at areas with icy sediments, ice wedges and massive ice beds. Construction of cofferdams resulted in overlapping of sediments transit on both coasts and caused sediment deficit on nearby nearshore zone areas. The result of technogenic disturbances was widespread coastal erosion activation, which catastrophic scale is facilitated by climate warming in the Arctic.

scholarly journals A warm jet in a cold ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. MacKinnon ◽  
Harper L. Simmons ◽  
John Hargrove ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Thomas Peacock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Beaufort Gyre ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Initial Evolution ◽  
Forecast Models

AbstractUnprecedented quantities of heat are entering the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait, particularly during summer months. Though some heat is lost to the atmosphere during autumn cooling, a significant fraction of the incoming warm, salty water subducts (dives beneath) below a cooler fresher layer of near-surface water, subsequently extending hundreds of kilometers into the Beaufort Gyre. Upward turbulent mixing of these sub-surface pockets of heat is likely accelerating sea ice melt in the region. This Pacific-origin water brings both heat and unique biogeochemical properties, contributing to a changing Arctic ecosystem. However, our ability to understand or forecast the role of this incoming water mass has been hampered by lack of understanding of the physical processes controlling subduction and evolution of this this warm water. Crucially, the processes seen here occur at small horizontal scales not resolved by regional forecast models or climate simulations; new parameterizations must be developed that accurately represent the physics. Here we present novel high resolution observations showing the detailed process of subduction and initial evolution of warm Pacific-origin water in the southern Beaufort Gyre.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Surface Atmospheric Changes over the Arctic Ocean for 2000–09 Using Recent Reanalyses

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayan H. Chaudhuri ◽  
Rui M. Ponte
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Retreat

Abstract The authors examine five recent reanalysis products [NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR)] for 1) trends in near-surface radiation fluxes, air temperature, and humidity, which are important indicators of changes within the Arctic Ocean and also influence sea ice and ocean conditions, and 2) fidelity of these atmospheric fields and effects for an extreme event: namely, the 2007 ice retreat. An analysis of trends over the Arctic for the past decade (2000–09) shows that reanalysis solutions have large spreads, particularly for downwelling shortwave radiation. In many cases, the differences in significant trends between the five reanalysis products are comparable to the estimated trend within a particular product. These discrepancies make it difficult to establish a consensus on likely changes occurring in the Arctic solely based on results from reanalyses fields. Regarding the 2007 ice retreat event, comparisons with remotely sensed estimates of downwelling radiation observations against these reanalysis products present an ambiguity. Remotely sensed observations from a study cited herewith suggest a large increase in downwelling summertime shortwave radiation and decrease in downwelling summertime longwave radiation from 2006 and 2007. On the contrary, the reanalysis products show only small gains in summertime shortwave radiation, if any; however, all the products show increases in downwelling longwave radiation. Thus, agreement within reanalysis fields needs to be further checked against observations to assess possible biases common to all products.

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