scholarly journals Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: Hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand

2005 ◽  
Vol 110 (B3) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bonadonna
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Modeling ◽  
Tephra Dispersal

Probabilistic Modeling of Post-Earthquake Fire in Wellington, New Zealand

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 553-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Cousins ◽  
Geoff Thomas ◽  
Dave Heron ◽  
Warwick Smith
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Modeling ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Water Supply System ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Highly Active ◽  
Synthetic Catalog

Wellington, the capital of New Zealand, has both high seismic and high post-earthquake fire risk because it straddles the highly active Wellington Fault, has many closely spaced wooden buildings, and has a fragile water supply system. Repeated modeling of a Wellington Fault earthquake showed that the distribution of fire losses was much broader than that of the shaking losses, so that while fire losses were usually much smaller than the preceding shaking losses, they could occasionally be much greater than the shaking losses. Probabilistic modeling using a synthetic catalog of earthquakes gave estimates of post-earthquake fire losses in Wellington that were relatively minor for return periods up to 1,000 years, equal to the shaking losses at about a 1,400-year level, and that dominated the losses for 2,000-year and longer return periods.

Numerical simulation of basaltic lava flows in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand—implication for volcanic hazard assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 76 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gábor Kereszturi ◽  
Annalisa Cappello ◽  
Gaetana Ganci ◽  
Jonathan Procter ◽  
Károly Németh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Volcanic Field ◽  
Lava Flows ◽  
Basaltic Lava ◽  
Auckland Volcanic Field

Quantifying asset and visitor risk at Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand from multiple volcanic hazards

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Procter ◽  
Stuart Mead ◽  
Mark Bebbington
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Debris Avalanche ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Input Parameters

<p>We present a probabilistic quantification of multiple volcanic hazards in an assessment of risk to visitors and assets in Egmont National Park, New Zealand. The probability of impact to proposed park infrastructure from volcanic activity (originating from Mt. Taranaki) is quantified using a combination of statistical and numerical techniques. While single (volcanic) hazard assessments typically follow a methodology where the hazard source (e.g. pyroclastic flow, ashfall, debris avalanche) is the focus and defines an area of impact, our multi-volcanic hazard assessment uses a location-centred methodology where critical locations are used to define the range of hazard sources that affect risk over park asset lifetimes. Key to this process is creating fast (i.e. linear/functional) mappings between hazard source parameters such as volume and impact parameters such as depth. These mappings can then be combined with stochastic models to find the probability of input parameters and the probability of eruptions generating these input parameters. For some hazards, such as ash fall, statistical models are available to map intensity to probability. However, mass flow hazards required the use of Gaussian process emulation to develop a computationally cheap surrogate to numerical simulations that can be efficiently sampled for probabilistic hazard assessment. This was a suitable alternative when statistical models for the hazard are unavailable. Our study demonstrates the use of these techniques to integrate stochastic and deterministic models for probabilistic volcano multi-hazard assessment.</p>

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