Climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation

2003 ◽  
pp. 193-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan P. Gillett ◽  
Hans F. Graf ◽  
Tim J. Osborn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

A Reply to John L. Brooke’s “Malthus and the North Atlantic Oscillation”

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-584
Author(s):  
Kyle Harper
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Human Response ◽  
The North ◽  
Positive Mode ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

In this continuation of his exchange with Brooke about Brooke’s big-picture model of climate change and human response, Harper argues for careful articulation of what kind of Malthusianism Brooke claims, or does not claim, for or against his model. Harper also challenges Brooke’s description of the paleoclimate known as the Roman Climate Optimum as a period dominated by a persistently positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-506
Author(s):  
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3–4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI.

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 509-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Fanrong Zeng ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Malthus and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A Reply to Kyle Harper

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-578
Author(s):  
John L. Brooke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Classical Antiquity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Subsequent to Harper’s review essay centered on Brooke’s Climate Change and the Course of Global History: A Rough Journey, Brooke concedes that he could have focused more attention on the problem of the Malthusian trap. He stresses, nevertheless, that his reservations regarding the concept of Malthusian crises in pre-industrial societies are well placed, given the concept’s prominence in the large-scale environmental histories written during the past several decades. Turning to the impact of climate change in late classical antiquity, Brooke discusses established and new evidence for increasing, sometimes catastrophic, precipitation from the Mediterranean area into central Asia after a.d. 500 and after 1250, as a result of shifts toward the negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation. He also surveys the evidence for emerging arguments that this cooling-driven precipitation may have triggered outbreaks of bubonic plague in Central Asia.

scholarly journals Influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on the atmospheric levels of benzo[a]pyrene over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
Nuno Ratola
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The South ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThe atmospheric concentration of persistent organic pollutants (and of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs, in particular) is closely related to climate change and climatic fluctuations, which are likely to influence contaminant’s transport pathways and transfer processes. Predicting how climate variability alters PAHs concentrations in the atmosphere still poses an exceptional challenge. In this sense, the main objective of this contribution is to assess the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the mean concentration of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP, the most studied PAH congener) in a domain covering Europe, with an emphasis on the effect of regional-scale processes. A numerical simulation for a present climate period of 30 years was performed using a regional chemistry transport model with a 25 km spatial resolution (horizontal), higher than those commonly applied. The results show an important seasonal behaviour, with a remarkable spatial pattern of difference between the north and the south of the domain. In winter, higher BaP ground levels are found during the NAO+ phase for the Mediterranean basin, while the spatial pattern of this feature (higher BaP levels during NAO+ phases) moves northwards in summer. These results show deviations up to and sometimes over 100% in the BaP mean concentrations, but statistically significant signals (p<0.1) of lower changes (20–40% variations in the signal) are found for the north of the domain in winter and for the south in summer.

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