Trends of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the North Atlantic Oscillation under climate change conditions

2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 1807-1815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Concepción Rodríguez-Puebla ◽  
Susana Nieto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

scholarly journals The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 4459-4493 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
S. M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
J. I. López-Moreno ◽  
J. C. González-Hidalgo ◽  
E. Morán-Tejeda
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Rivers

Abstract. In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

A Reply to John L. Brooke’s “Malthus and the North Atlantic Oscillation”

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-584
Author(s):  
Kyle Harper
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Human Response ◽  
The North ◽  
Positive Mode ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

In this continuation of his exchange with Brooke about Brooke’s big-picture model of climate change and human response, Harper argues for careful articulation of what kind of Malthusianism Brooke claims, or does not claim, for or against his model. Harper also challenges Brooke’s description of the paleoclimate known as the Roman Climate Optimum as a period dominated by a persistently positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-506
Author(s):  
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3–4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI.

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 509-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Fanrong Zeng ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

scholarly journals The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 2581-2597 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
S. M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
J. I. López-Moreno ◽  
J. C. González-Hidalgo ◽  
E. Morán-Tejeda
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Rivers

Abstract. In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

Malthus and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A Reply to Kyle Harper

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-578
Author(s):  
John L. Brooke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Classical Antiquity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Subsequent to Harper’s review essay centered on Brooke’s Climate Change and the Course of Global History: A Rough Journey, Brooke concedes that he could have focused more attention on the problem of the Malthusian trap. He stresses, nevertheless, that his reservations regarding the concept of Malthusian crises in pre-industrial societies are well placed, given the concept’s prominence in the large-scale environmental histories written during the past several decades. Turning to the impact of climate change in late classical antiquity, Brooke discusses established and new evidence for increasing, sometimes catastrophic, precipitation from the Mediterranean area into central Asia after a.d. 500 and after 1250, as a result of shifts toward the negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation. He also surveys the evidence for emerging arguments that this cooling-driven precipitation may have triggered outbreaks of bubonic plague in Central Asia.

scholarly journals Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rodríguez-Puebla ◽  
A. H. Encinas ◽  
J. Sáenz
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

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